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Paul
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Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 2:58 am

It's not obvious to me one way or the other. We'll have to put numbers to it, and that's obviously a bit heartless. 
 
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Alan
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:07 am

I was very glad to hear today bi-partisan talk of the "return to normalcy". If both Trump and Cuomo 'get it', there is hope. 

I think the end game is that, after 2-3 weeks, the hospitals have been given a good chance to prepare for the surge. Then, you let people get back to work, with obvious guidelines for close contact situations (hairstylists, etc) and warnings about maintaining social distancing. Another couple months, if the surge is manageable, you open up events: conferences, concerts, that kind of thing. Then, next winter we live with Covid-19 as part of the seasonal flu, with (in the US), the 25,000-50,000 annual deaths that accompany that. In a couple years, there will be a vaccine, but the thing may mutate also, and it will become part of the annual vaccination strategy. The world doesn't end. 
Last edited by Alan on March 24th, 2020, 4:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Paul
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:11 am

You didn't need the " " around "return to" since those are actual words.
 
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Paul
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 8:53 am

I just read that life expectancy rose during the Great Depression! (Although so did suicide rate.)
 
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Alan
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 1:33 pm

People stopped working at the jobs that can kill you: coal mining or whatever?
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 3:03 pm

People stopped working at the jobs that can kill you: coal mining or whatever?
And the waterfront.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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SWilson
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 3:22 pm

Paul, I'm assuming you're referring to the collateral damage to the economy.  I don't want to contract the virus, but maybe I do, so when the next one comes around my immune system will have some defenses?  Are we not allowing nature to take its course so then it will be much worse next time?  I don't know, just thinking about it.  Getting back to the original issue, small businesses, which are always touted as the backbone of the economy are taking it on the chin the hardest, along with their employees.   The numbers......from a political standpoint they will be able to say if they didn't shut everything down xxx,xxx,xxx lives would have been lost, which the average person will ever be able to validate or even question. Hence, the green light to take as an extreme measure as you wish and be the hero so you can say you saved humanity itself.  
 
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Alan
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:32 pm

Very nice stock market rally ongoing today. Headlines here say due to imminent US fiscal stimulus bill. I don't believe it -- I believe it is due to the 'return to normalcy' talk.  
 
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Paul
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:39 pm

If we do return to normality then I promise to use the word normalcy.
 
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Alan
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:47 pm

It's an americanism
 
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Paul
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:49 pm

No! I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you! I don't care that the world is going to hell in a handcart, I'm not letting my standards slip. (I've always sat at my PC naked.)
 
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Paul
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 4:54 pm

Paul, I'm assuming you're referring to the collateral damage to the economy.  I don't want to contract the virus, but maybe I do, so when the next one comes around my immune system will have some defenses?  Are we not allowing nature to take its course so then it will be much worse next time?  I don't know, just thinking about it.  Getting back to the original issue, small businesses, which are always touted as the backbone of the economy are taking it on the chin the hardest, along with their employees.   The numbers......from a political standpoint they will be able to say if they didn't shut everything down xxx,xxx,xxx lives would have been lost, which the average person will ever be able to validate or even question. Hence, the green light to take as an extreme measure as you wish and be the hero so you can say you saved humanity itself.  
I've said this before about getting the virus sooner rather than later. There'll be an optimal time to get it. (Probably now.) I do like modelling problems will optimal actions! It's Prisoner's Dilemma.

Small businesses will suffer. But they might also be fast to bounce back. As long as they don't lose premises, machinery, etc. 
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 5:24 pm

Deep Learning will save us.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Alan
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 5:32 pm

Looks like US will try to open up again by Easter (Trump remarks of a few minutes ago). Could be an interesting clash of dueling guidelines in California. I suspect that people will just do what they want.
 
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SWilson
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Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

March 24th, 2020, 5:40 pm

Deep Learning will save us.
How?
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