A collection of papers, data, and news. Some more academic than others.
Critiques are welcome, as are constructive comments and additional resources.
A Primer on Quantitative Models of Sovereign Default on External Debt - UPenn
Computing sovereign debt models: Why so hard? - Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis
Quantitative sovereign default models and the European debt crisis - Luigi Bocolaa, Gideon Bornstein, Alessandro Dovis - Journal of International Economics May 2019
Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises - Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole & Zachary Stangebye NBER March 2016
Frequently cited: Eaton and Gersovitz (1981)
Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
Jonathan Eaton, Mark Gersovitz
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 48, Issue 2, April 1981, Pages 289–309, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296886
Russia Economic Report - World Bank December 2021
Morgan Stanley Says Russia’s Set for Venezuela-Style Default - Bloomberg March 7
Quick and dirty calculation (no model required!) spending estimated at $20 billion a day. $650 billion in currency reserves. ~ 33 days
I have more stuff, but we'll see if this gets any traction. ; )