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Sovereign Default Research

March 8th, 2022, 5:58 pm

A collection of papers, data, and news. Some more academic than others. 
Critiques are welcome, as are constructive comments and additional resources.

A Primer on Quantitative Models of Sovereign Default on External Debt - UPenn

Computing sovereign debt models: Why so hard? - Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis

Quantitative sovereign default models and the European debt crisis - Luigi Bocolaa, Gideon Bornstein, Alessandro Dovis - Journal of International Economics May 2019

Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises - Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole & Zachary Stangebye NBER March 2016

Frequently cited: Eaton and Gersovitz (1981)

Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis 
Jonathan Eaton,  Mark Gersovitz
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 48, Issue 2, April 1981, Pages 289–309, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296886

Russia Economic Report - World Bank December 2021

Morgan Stanley Says Russia’s Set for Venezuela-Style Default - Bloomberg March 7

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Quick and dirty calculation (no model required!) spending estimated at $20 billion a day. $650 billion in currency reserves.  ~ 33 days 

I have more stuff, but we'll see if this gets any traction. ; )