SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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mikebell
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The amazing Ken Jennings

July 9th, 2004, 10:55 pm

Has anyone been watching Jeopardy! lately? I've tuned in last Friday after a friend told me about this guy... Ken Jennings has won over $900,000 and has been a champ for 28 consecutive shows. Quite amazing! Guy's like a walking encyclopedia. He proves that there's no such thing as useless information.From Slate: The man who knew too much
 
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RowdyRoddyPiper
Posts: 529
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The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 10:46 pm

"He proves that there's no such thing as useless information."And you are battling him on that front tooth and nail.Anyway, I don't think that the 28 is going to hold up in the long run. You've only been able to go an unlimited time on Jeopardy for the previous 9 months. I think some guy did like 9 days in January. Again, not to knock the guy but I think that it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds, once you have all the facts. Common theme with you no, mikey??
 
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mikebell
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Joined: July 1st, 2003, 5:23 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiper"He proves that there's no such thing as useless information."And you are battling him on that front tooth and nail.Anyway, I don't think that the 28 is going to hold up in the long run. You've only been able to go an unlimited time on Jeopardy for the previous 9 months. I think some guy did like 9 days in January. Again, not to knock the guy but I think that it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds, once you have all the facts. Common theme with you no, mikey??Oh, we all know you NP psychopaths could do better in everything including this silly little game. Why don't you watch it instead of talking nonsense and trying to look like a pompous blow-hard all the time?PS: It's Mr. Bell to you.
 
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farmer
Posts: 13461
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: mikebellKen Jennings has won over $900,000 and has been a champ for 28 consecutive shows. Quite amazing!QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperAnyway, I don't think that the 28 is going to hold up in the long run.Sounds like we have a bid and an ask. Now all we need is for Roddy to define "long run" (as a multiple of 9 months), plus a custodian for the funds, and we'll have a bet!So Roddy, whom on Wilmott would you accept as custodian?
 
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mikebell
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The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:24 pm

MP's onto something. Why don't you put the money where your mouth is Roddy and show us how much this guy sucks? How much money are you willing to put down and what is the timeframe we're talking about? Also, are you willing to go through Jeopardy! trials and try to beat him yourself (or are you posting this trash just because you feel extra arrogant/"mad at W" today)?PS: Today this "schmuck" won another $52,000 and his challengers ended up with under $1000. Current record for one day winnings is $52,000 and he has equaled the record twice. For some reason he doesn't wanna break the record even though he's had multiple opportunities.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:25 pm

I've got a better format, kind of like a swap.Roddy sets a price for Bell to pay him on the day that someone beats 28, which amount is held by the custodian.Roddy pays Bell a fraction of that amount, every show that nobody else beats 28.The day someone beats 28 (or the day Roddy's margin falls below the amount), the bet ends.
Last edited by farmer on July 12th, 2004, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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mikebell
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The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:30 pm

I'm up for that. The only thing is, Ken is still winning (#29 today) and if Roddy's confident enough, let's replace 28 with whatever the Ken's record ends up being. I'd be willing to "invest" $1000 per Ken's winning game -- up to $60-70K.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:34 pm

Last edited by farmer on July 12th, 2004, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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mikebell
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Posts: 1698
Joined: July 1st, 2003, 5:23 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:37 pm

I'll take either one of these bets. Whichever one Roddy accepts. Either more money with a longer timeframe or less money ($28,000) with shorter timeframe... whatever he wants. What's left is to devise his payment structure. Any preferences?
 
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ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 12th, 2004, 11:56 pm

I'm with you guys on those bets.I guess Roddy is having one of his days. I think if someone had posted that they had a new puppy, we'd have got a poisonous response to that as well
 
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farmer
Posts: 13461
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 13th, 2004, 12:01 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperI guess Roddy is having one of his days.I remember Roddy's first lashing-out type posts. They came right after a post in which I mentioned people's wives being on Prozac.Can you come up with something better to hang it on?
 
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RowdyRoddyPiper
Posts: 529
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The amazing Ken Jennings

July 14th, 2004, 12:02 am

Okay, I have no idea what the second bet was...I guess it was deleted. Okay, so they do 5 games a week, I don't know how many weeks in a season, but I suppose we can find out. That way we can adjust out seasonality for the limited (9month sample we have) and games played, I'm thinking long run is 5 years in this case...I'll have to work think on it. I guess once Ken hits the end of the line we'll figure out how to price the other side of this trade. Now...back to basic reading comprehension. To wit:ME: "Anyway, I don't think that the 28 is going to hold up in the long run. You've only been able to go an unlimited time on Jeopardy for the previous 9 months. I think some guy did like 9 days in January. Again, not to knock the guy but I think that it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds, once you have all the facts. Common theme with you no, mikey??"MB: "Today this "schmuck" won another $52,000 and his challengers ended up with under $1000. Current record for one day winnings is $52,000 and he has equaled the record twice. For some reason he doesn't wanna break the record even though he's had multiple opportunities"I don't recall saying anywhere the guy is a schmuck, I don't recall saying I will do better than him at jeopardy and I don't think he "doesn't want to break the single game record" like a reject. The point I am bringing up is that Jeopardy has not had a 28, 29 or whatever game winner in it's 20 year history because it limited people to 5 consecutive wins. Also I don't think I would be able to get into Jeopardy in time to compete with this guy. Also I don't really think I'd beat him. Not only does he have a lot of knowledge, but he has good technique. Anyway, you apparently are unable to read for comprehension, so this may be a waste of my time, mikey. Farmer/MP/Abumazen...I'm glad you keep an inventory of my posts...it makes me feel happy. Could you link to it...I think my lashing out has evolved over the past year or two so I'd like to see where I started from. Thanks.I will get on the phone with LaSalle to see if they are interested in acting as custodial agent on this...I think that we should split administrative fees 50/50 okay mike?Thanks again, you're all pretty swell now that I think about it.
 
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farmer
Posts: 13461
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 14th, 2004, 12:49 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperOkay, so they do 5 games a week, I don't know how many weeks in a season, but I suppose we can find out. That way we can adjust out seasonality for the limited (9month sample we have) and games playedWho's the we? Just name your price. And above all else, keep it simple. Bell loses when someone beats 28. If the planet gets nuked, Bell wins. If Jeopardy changes the format, and nobody stays on for more than 3 days, Bell wins. If they change the format so that a "house" player takes on a single challenger with brain damage each week, and that house player beats 28 lone retards in a row, Roddy wins. If Jeopardy is cancelled, Bell wins. If Jeopardy franchises the brand name, and multiple games take place on the same night, the total rate of play is assumed if the bet is timed by games awarded, and a 29 in any game will count for a Roddy win if the bet is by calendar time, even if they increase or decrease the schedule...QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperI'll have to work think on it. I guess once Ken hits the end of the line we'll figure out how to price the other side of this trade.Bad move. You want to catch someone while he's dumb. The contest is to see who can price better on an impulse. The longer you research and deliberate, the closer your opinions will converge, until the price won't be worth the volatility to the winner. Maybe that is what you want? QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperI will get on the phone with LaSalle to see if they are interested in acting as custodial agent on thisI take it you don't actually want to bet? Wouldn't they report the gains to the IRS, and wouldn't the gains and losses still only be counted against other gambling gains and losses?
Last edited by farmer on July 13th, 2004, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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RowdyRoddyPiper
Posts: 529
Joined: November 5th, 2001, 7:25 pm

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 14th, 2004, 12:09 pm

"I take it you don't actually want to bet? Wouldn't they report the gains to the IRS, and wouldn't the gains and losses still only be counted against other gambling gains and losses? "Actually, I don't think that anyone on this site that I would have enough confidence in to act as trustee is brain dead enough to want the hassle of keeping the funds and books on this. "Bad move. You want to catch someone while he's dumb. The contest is to see who can price better on an impulse. The longer you research and deliberate, the closer your opinions will converge, until the price won't be worth the volatility to the winner. Maybe that is what you want? "My mistake, I thought the contest was to see if 29 games is really such a total outlier. I'm sorry that my reticence has put a hiccup in another one of your psychological tests. Anyway, can you link me to my first lashing out post. Please...I don't have the time to search for it. But I'm willing to wager that you do....ho ho.And mikey, quick economics lesson for you about inflation. In like 2001 they doubled the dollar amounts on Jeopardy. There are 4 people that have scored more than 60,000 in one day when you adjust for Jeopardy inflation. Just thought you'd like to know that.
 
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farmer
Posts: 13461
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

The amazing Ken Jennings

July 14th, 2004, 12:29 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperActually, I don't think that anyone on this site that I would have enough confidence in to act as trustee is brain dead enough to want the hassle of keeping the funds and books on this.Yeah. You haven't even given a ballpark dollar size yet, on which you could even begin to characterize the hassle or the vig. And it's called community, you approach someone and say "Will you do this for me so that I can make money off of MikeBell?" Maybe you need to network better.QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperMy mistake, I thought the contest was to see if 29 games is really such a total outlier.You obviously don't have any real opinion on that. It's been how many days, and you still haven't even given a timeframe? All you have to do is say "5 years," or "200 games," state a bet amount, and solicit people to act as custodian. Have you never asked a girl on a date in your life? Forget the money, just state a friggin' timeframe already!QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperAnyway, can you link me to my first lashing out post. Please...I don't have the time to search for it. But I'm willing to wager that you do....ho ho.It's not clear to me why I would bother. My prior statement about you was addressed to people who not only 1) know less about you than you do, but also 2) had some genuine curiosity.QuoteOriginally posted by: RowdyRoddyPiperAnd mikey, quick economics lesson for you about inflation. In like 2001 they doubled the dollar amounts on Jeopardy. There are 4 people that have scored more than 60,000 in one day when you adjust for Jeopardy inflation. Just thought you'd like to know that.Are you going to offer a bet on one of these things or what? For a guy who knows so much and has such an idiot to take the other side, you haven't even put $10 behind one of these statements. Mikey has put the $70,000 on the table and all you have to do is take it. But you obviously don't actually have the confidence in your statements that you pretend to.
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