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trackstar
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 15th, 2011, 2:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaAnyway, I think I know what would happen if the tables were reversed and a best-of-the-best human tried to play a game designed by computers for computers -- "Quick! Find 1 billion double-precision square roots!" Perhaps some Babylonians would win. Or a few very special people here. I also wanted to ask if you are really so confident that Moore's Law will hold out indefinitely.Several posts back you mentioned the old 18-month totem...
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 15th, 2011, 2:27 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperShow #6086 - Monday, February 14, 2011The IBM Challenge.Jeopardy! Round only.ContestantsBrad Rutter, a $3.2-million winner from Los Angeles, CaliforniaWatson, a deep question answering system from IBMKen Jennings, a 74-game champion from Seattle, WashingtonScores at the end of the Jeopardy! Round:Ken Watson Brad $2,000 $5,000 $5,000 The key thing in this show is often timing: If all 3 know the answer, you have to get the buzzer in first.And then there's hunting for the double jeopardy squares: when you get a question right, you get to choose the next answer, and if you hit the double jeopardy square you get to answer it unopposed and make a lot of moneyIf you watched last night, what did you think about Watson's performance?He certainly was quick with the Beatle's Songbook.
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 15th, 2011, 2:36 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperShow #6086 - Monday, February 14, 2011The IBM Challenge.Jeopardy! Round only.ContestantsBrad Rutter, a $3.2-million winner from Los Angeles, CaliforniaWatson, a deep question answering system from IBMKen Jennings, a 74-game champion from Seattle, WashingtonScores at the end of the Jeopardy! Round:Ken Watson Brad $2,000 $5,000 $5,000 The key thing in this show is often timing: If all 3 know the answer, you have to get the buzzer in first.And then there's hunting for the double jeopardy squares: when you get a question right, you get to choose the next answer, and if you hit the double jeopardy square you get to answer it unopposed and make a lot of moneyIf you watched last night, what did you think about Watson's performance?He certainly was quick with the Beatle's Songbook. watson's a smart guy, and like I said, speed is key
 
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Traden4Alpha
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 15th, 2011, 3:28 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarI also wanted to ask if you are really so confident that Moore's Law will hold out indefinitely.Several posts back you mentioned the old 18-month totem...Moore's law was supposed to end two decades ago when feature sizes hit the visible wavelength of light limit. But semiconductor makers found ways to get around that limit. At some level, you must be right -- the finite size of atoms, the thermodynamics of information, quantum tunneling, dielectric effects, bulk resistivity, etc., etc. -- all place bounds on feature size and clock speed. At another level, vast untapped realms of opportunity lie waiting in nanotechnology and 3-D.Ultimately, the real issue is about key performance ratios between biological hardware and artificial hardware. Currently, artificial systems enjoy 10X-100X smaller feature sizes, about 3 million times the clock rate, and 5 to 100 million times the signal propagation velocity. As a really rough guess, if semiconductors get no smaller or faster, then a brain-sized artificial CPU might be on the order of 100 billion times faster than a human brain. Even if 99% of that artificial brain volume get devoted to heat removal and power distribution, the artificial unit is still a billion times faster.
 
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 16th, 2011, 1:16 am

Tuesday, February 15, 2011Suffice it to say, Watson kicked higher primate posterior. Ken Jennings.....Watson ...Brad Rutter$4,800 ............$35,734 ...$10,400
 
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 16th, 2011, 6:34 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarTuesday, February 15, 2011Suffice it to say, Watson kicked higher primate posterior. Ken Jennings.....Watson ...Brad Rutter$4,800 ............$35,734 ...$10,400so are we going to insisit on a change to the thread title to the not-so amazing Ken Jennings ?
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 16th, 2011, 8:37 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarTuesday, February 15, 2011Suffice it to say, Watson kicked higher primate posterior. Ken Jennings.....Watson ...Brad Rutter$4,800 ............$35,734 ...$10,400indeed,Show #6087 - Tuesday, February 15, 2011The IBM Challenge.Continuation of game 1.ContestantsBrad Rutter, a $3.2-million winner from Los Angeles, CaliforniaWatson, a deep question answering system from IBMKen Jennings, a 74-game champion from Seattle, Washington Scores at the end of the Double Jeopardy! Round:Ken Watson Brad $2,400 $36,681 $5,400 Final Jeopardy! RoundU.S. CITIES Its largest airport is named for a World War II hero; its second largest, for a World War II battle The humans got Chicago, Watson went for Toronto which is not in the US (topic: U.S cities !) and whose main airport is named for a former prime minister Final scores:Ken Watson Brad $4,800 $35,734 $10,400 as you say, Watson cleaned up
 
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 16th, 2011, 3:01 pm

btw, does anyone know how Watson was given the "answers" for which he had to find questions ?Did he listen along with the 2 humans and use speech recognition software ?Or were they input directly to him electronically, which probably gave him an advantage over the 2 humans ?(who had to wait for Alex to read the question out and then the speed of sound to carry it to them)
 
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February 17th, 2011, 11:33 am

Last night, Watson built on his already substantial lead to win the $1 million!IBM's Watson supercomputer crowned Jeopardy king - BBC Feb 17"The final Jeopardy category was 19th century novelists. And the answer: William Wilkinson's "An Account of the Principalities of Wallachia and Moldavia" inspired this author's most famous novel. The question - which all three contestants got right was "Who is Bram Stoker?"Watson wagered $17,973 (£11,154) to cement his victory. In the end Watson accumulated $77,147 (£47,923) versus Mr Jennings' total of $24,000 (£14,907) and Mr Rutter's $21,600 (£12,416)."and now, Watson is going off to Medical School.Next for the Jeopardy! Winner: Dr. Watson, I Presume? - Time Feb 17Back to the speech and natural langauge recognition question, here are two articles from a good HPC source:Must See TV: IBM Watson Heads for Jeopardy Showdown - HPC Wire Feb 9..."On the hardware side, Watson is comprised of 90 Power 750 servers, 16 TB of memory and 4 TB of disk storage, all housed in a relatively compact ten racks. The 750 is IBM's elite Power7-based server targeted for high-end enterprise analytics. (The Power 755 is geared toward high performance technical computing and differs only marginally in CPU speed, memory capacity, and storage options.) Although the enterprise version can be ordered with 1 to 4 sockets of 6-core or 8-core Power7 chips, Watson is maxed out with the 4-socket, 8-core configuration using the top bin 3.55 GHz processors.The 360 Power7 chips that make up Watson's brain represent IBM's best and brightest processor technology. Each Power7 is capable of over 500 GB/second of aggregate bandwidth, making it particularly adept at manipulating data at high speeds. FLOPS-wise, a 3.55 GHz Power7 delivers 218 Linpack gigaflops. For comparison, the POWER2 SC processor, which was the chip that powered cyber-chessmaster Deep Blue, managed a paltry 0.48 gigaflops, with the whole machine delivering a mere 11.4 Linpack gigaflops.But FLOPS are not the real story here. Watson's question-answering software presumably makes little use of floating-point number crunching. To deal with the game scenario, the system had to be endowed with a rather advanced version of natural language processing. But according to David Ferrucci, principal investigator for the project, it goes far beyond language smarts. The software system, called DeepQA, also incorporates machine learning, knowledge representation, and deep analytics.Even so, the whole application rests on first understanding the Jeopardy clues, which, because they employ colloquialisms and often obscure references, can be challenging even for humans. That's why this is such a good test case for natural language processing. Ferrucci says the ability to understand language is destined to become a very important aspect of computers. "It has to be that way," he says. "We just cant imagine a future without it."But it's the analysis component that we associate with real "intelligence." The approach here reflects the open domain nature of the problem. According to Ferrucci, it wouldn't have made sense to simply construct a database corresponding to possible Jeopardy clues. Such a model would have supported only a small fraction of the possible topics available to Jeopardy. Rather their approach was to use "as is" information sources -- encyclopedias, dictionaries, thesauri, plays, books, etc. -- and make the correlations dynamically.The trick of course is to do all the processing in real-time. Contestants, at least the successful ones, need to provide an answer in just a few seconds. When the software was run on a lone 2.6 GHz CPU, it took around 2 hours to process a typical Jeopardy clue -- not a very practical implementation. But when they parallelized the algorithms across the 2,880-core Watson, they were able to cut the processing time from a couple of hours to between 2 and 6 seconds.Even at that, Watson doesn't just spit out the answers. It forms hypotheses based on the evidence it finds and scores them at various confidence levels. Watson is programmed not to buzz in until it reaches a confidence of at least 50 percent, although this parameter can be self-adjusted depending on the game situation.To accomplish all this, DeepQA employs an ensemble of algorithms -- about a million lines of code --- to gather and score the evidence. These include temporal reasoning algorithms to correlate times with events, statistical paraphrasing algorithms to evaluate semantic context, and geospatial reasoning to correlate locations.It can also dynamically form associations, both in training and at game time, to connect disparate ideas. For example it can learn that inventors can patent information or that officials can submit resignations. Watson also shifts the weight it assigns to different algorithms based on which ones are delivering the more accurate correlations. This aspect of machine learning allows Watson to get "smarter" the more it plays the game."...We definitely saw evidence of this on Day 2 and again last night - Watson did learn on the job.Watson's Debut Sparks Intelligent Conversation - HPC Wire Feb 15 **ppauper - he does have the questions input directly, but I imagine that "hearing" will be incorporated soon: "In one instance, Watson repeated a reworded version of an incorrect response offered by Jennings. Because Watson is "deaf" and doesn't utilize speech recognition, it had no knowledge that Jennings had already given the same response. In another instance, Watson was initially given credit for a response of "What is leg?" after Jennings incorrectly responded "What is a missing hand?" to a clue about George Eyser."Watson - Wiki
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 17th, 2011, 1:57 pm

as trackstar said:Show #6088 - Wednesday, February 16, 2011The IBM Challenge.Game 2.ContestantsBrad Rutter, a $3.2-million winner from Los Angeles, California (subtotal of $10,400)Watson, a deep question answering system from IBM (subtotal of $35,734)Ken Jennings, a 74-game champion from Seattle, Washington (subtotal of $4,800)Final scores:Ken Watson Brad $19,200 $41,413 $11,200 Cumulative scores:Ken Watson Brad $24,000 $77,147 $21,600 1st runner-up: $300,000 Tournament champion: $1,000,000 2nd runner-up: $200,000 I guess Ken finally got the better of Brad, who beat him in that big big tournament a few years ago
 
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February 17th, 2011, 2:02 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstar ppauper - he does have the questions input directly, but I imagine that "hearing" will be incorporated soon: "In one instance, Watson repeated a reworded version of an incorrect response offered by Jennings. Because Watson is "deaf" and doesn't utilize speech recognition, it had no knowledge that Jennings had already given the same response. In another instance, Watson was initially given credit for a response of "What is leg?" after Jennings incorrectly responded "What is a missing hand?" to a clue about George Eyser."Watson - Wikiyes, the wiki article says Watson "received the clues electronically" I noticed the part>> Originally Watson buzzed in electronically, but Jeopardy! requested that it physically press a button, as the human contestants would.>>Even with a robotic "finger" pressing the buzzer, Watson remained faster than its human competitors. >> Jennings noted, "If you're trying to win on the show, the buzzer is all," and that Watson "can knock out a microsecond-precise buzz every single time with little or no variation. Human reflexes can't compete with computer circuits in this regard." That buzzer speed has to be worth a lot as it means that when all 3 know an answer, watson will get there first
 
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ppauper
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The amazing Ken Jennings

February 21st, 2011, 8:27 am

incidentally, this incredibly popular thread started by mikebell has over 200,000 views !
 
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July 19th, 2011, 4:03 pm

Obama Makes Joke About Confirmation Process ... No One Laughs
 
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rmax
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July 19th, 2011, 4:09 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperincidentally, this incredibly popular thread started by mikebell has over 200,000 views !And what percentage of your 30k posts have gone into this thread?
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July 20th, 2011, 11:20 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperincidentally, this incredibly popular thread started by mikebell has over 200,000 views !And what percentage of your 30k posts have gone into this thread?I'll let you work that out, and don't forget to put your answer in the form of a question
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