November 2nd, 2001, 1:44 pm
I think you would have to qualify that somewhat. Most successful traders are not fools with no skill whatsoever; even famed internet hucksters Mary Meeker and Henry Blodget (who were geniuses when the internet bubble grew and are now forgotten after the collapse), were very clever in their rhetoric. The head equity managers at $1B funds are generally smart, well educated people, not fools. Successful traders and investors are lucky in the sense that many others could and would do their jobs just as well for 1/10 the pay (this is also why they are such paranoid backstabbers).What irks me more than the lucky success (after all envy, like greed, is one of the seven deadly sins), is watching the intentional fraud perpetrated by traders. Most traders make money by scalping bids and offers using a network of contacts, and know little about fundamental value or hedging (either mathematically derived from derivatives or from discounted cash flow of investments or anything else). Yet they are quick to highlight if not insist they are 'Risk Managers' first, feign respect for Myron Scholes, or discuss what the trade deficit means for the Euro--as if they really cared or had a clue.M