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ppauper
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Re: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation

October 8th, 2018, 12:07 pm

you can see from the graph that the fluctuations are sometimes below the average

here's arctic temperature 1920 to 2017
Image
there seems to have been a trough from about 1960 to 1980, and now we're back to the temperatures that prevailed around 1930 or 1940
Fluctuations appear to have been larger in the old days
Last edited by ppauper on October 8th, 2018, 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation

October 8th, 2018, 12:29 pm

As you can see in your graph, those fluctuations move the average towards higher temperatures (it's a running average, not equal to that in my graph). As you noticed yourself, the amplitude of those fluctuations has been very high, which according to the author I quoted suggests that the "classical" models are unsuitable to model temperature in this system.
 
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation

October 8th, 2018, 2:47 pm

here's arctic temperature 1920 to 1917

This is an inverse (ill-posed) problem.
 
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ppauper
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Re: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation

October 8th, 2018, 3:10 pm

here's arctic temperature 1920 to 1917

This is an inverse (ill-posed) problem.
my bad, 2017
 
 
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bearish
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Re: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation

October 9th, 2018, 10:25 am

That was by the year 2100. It is ludicrous to imagine cars running on gas at the end of the century, so that sounds about right.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation

October 11th, 2018, 2:15 pm

 
 
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