SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

Topic Author
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There is absolutely no reason why the United States and China should be on a collision course. China is like a big boulder moving down the mountain. There is nothing you can do to stop it. The question is if you want to do something positive. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Every year China is constructing around 4,000 km of expressways, towards its target of connecting every city with a population of 200,000 or more to an 85,000 km national motorway network. Half the work is already done.
Last edited by TraderJoe on May 7th, 2006, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DominicConnor
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There is absolutely no reason why the United States and China should be on a collision course.I agree with you that there's no obvious reason for major tension between the two in the near future.But there is a huge swarm of relatively low probability issues, that combine to make me see it as almost intevitable.Taiwan is the first obvious one. China keeps trying to bully them, and they are under US protection. It's easy to forget that a respectable % ofAmerican military work is honourable and for the general good. S.Korea would be trashed within hours by Chinese backed North Korea if America left.China has this chip on it's shoulder about Japan, and sends thugs to beat up Japanese businessmen. That's hardly the stuff of wars, but it betrays an attitude that makes some rash act less than impossible.America also guarantees Japan from attack by China.China and India occasionally shoot at each other over the ownership of utterly useless and barren border areas, and it's not that long since China & Russia did the same. Neither are American allies, and there is no immediate threat of a real war, but it would be big, and big wars suck in 3rd parties.China also seems to regard any bit of water within 1,000 miles of anything they have a name for as Chinese. Mostly this is harmless but there are oil fields within China's reach, but not yet it's grasp.Oil is on course to be a source of conflict even move over the next 10-20 years, and again America backs the non-Chinese nations on this. (Currently).China isn't very nice. Historically, America has found the nastiest person in a region and backed them, and given that almost no one anywhere is nastier than China it can continue to expect America support.However, as we saw in Iran that really can turn out bad. If the evil old men fall in spite of America support, will the new regime hate America for helping their oppressors ?China sells nuclear technology to really bad people. America has never really taken action against France or Pakistan for their dodgy sales, but if the nukes were used against American interests that might change.China has a space program. OK, it's the only program in the world that makes NASA look good by comparison, but they're up there. For historical reasons, America has treated space as much like the high seas open to all.The idea of a common asset shared by all is utterly alien to China, if it feels it can occupy it, they will. The Clark orbit is getting more crowded, and is a finite resource. Also bits of crap are floating round at high velocity. China really really hates any form of communication it does not control. It might decide to claim ownership of the area of space that can broadcast down to China. Slight problem here of course is that China is too far north to actually be below a geostationary orbit. Means it will have to lean upon southern neighbours, and/or do the sort of things it already does at sea. Look up the incidence of piracy in that part of the world. And no, they are not one legged englishmen with loud laughs and a parrot. China is in on this as well. Historical precedent of course is that's how Britain's seaborne empire bootstrapped itself.There is nothing you can do to stop it. The question is if you want to do something positive.Suggestions ?

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DCFC, I think you are a little over-paranoid towards China and North Korea.QuoteS.Korea would be trashed within hours by Chinese backed North Korea if America left.I think that this is very improbable. N. Korea would not try, and China would not back them either.S. Korea provides a lot of help to N. Korea. It is in the interest of the North to keep the South scared but not harmed.These days, China is only interested in economic growth, and would not embark into any war unless forced to, because it does not want to afford the cost. May be when they grow a lot stronger, this might change, but then a lot might have changed. I think the Chinese govt whatever you might of them is firstly and above all concerned about stability and growth.

DominicConnor
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Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

DCFC, I think you are a little over-paranoid towards China and North Korea.Right, that's why N.Korea has this huge offensive force within artillery range of Seoul ?I think that this is very improbable. N. Korea would not try, and China would not back them either.China backed it last time.The N.korean regime only has one friend, and that is China.S. Korea provides a lot of help to N. Korea. It is in the interest of the North to keep the South scared but not harmed.The problem with extortion is that every so often you need to break a few legs to show that you're serious. That can easily get out of hand.Also the victim may get it into his head to strike.If America suddenly pulled out, there would be a window of vulnerability before S.Korea built up it's capability. That would be the best time to strike.These days, China is only interested in economic growth, Chinese people certainly are, and good luck to them.China's leaders have a very different agenda.and would not embark into any war unless forced to, because it does not want to afford the cost.Clancy's law.Almost every nation that fired the first shot in war since the industrial revolution has lost. War is almost never a rational act.Even piss poor little wars like Iraq consume vast amounts of money, yet we observe they still happen.I doubt a direct war is likely any time soon. However, the boundary between selling arms to a country as a commercial transaction, and using it to build allies is often very blurred.What if Venezuela decided to swap some of the oil that China increasingly needs for a horde of cheap but respectable fighters, or perhaps missiles with the range to hit the USA ?China has full WMD capability, and a rapidly growing manufacturing base. I rather suspect that >5 years from now they will begin to own the low-mid range of international arms sales.Take Cuban missile crisis, and update it. China already sells lots of things to Iran. If a Chinese freighter carrying accurate long range ballistic missiles was spotted in the Gulf, what would the USA do ? What would Israel do ? Not saying this will lead to fights, but an expanding China means more of these points of friction.In any case the scenarios I described were semi-accidents, rather like pub fights. Someone bumps someone, they over-react, gets messy.May be when they grow a lot stronger, this might change, but then a lot might have changed.Things have already changed. I think the Chinese govt whatever you might of them is firstly and above all concerned about stability and growth."Stability" to China means very different things than to a civilised country.
Last edited by DominicConnor on September 13th, 2005, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bhutes
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Last edited by bhutes on November 9th, 2005, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bhutes
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Last edited by bhutes on November 9th, 2005, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ppauper
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Chinese warships cruise near

Topic Author
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Joined: February 1st, 2005, 11:21 pm

China's Success in Fighting PovertyAcross China, there were over 400 million fewer people living in extreme poverty in 2001 than 20 years previously. By 2001, China had met the foremost of the Millennium Development Goals — to reduce the 1990 incidence of poverty by half — and it had done so 14 years ahead of the 2015 target date for the developing world as a whole.

brontosaurus
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QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeChina's Success in Fighting PovertyAcross China, there were over 400 million fewer people living in extreme poverty in 2001 than 20 years previously. By 2001, China had met the foremost of the Millennium Development Goals — to reduce the 1990 incidence of poverty by half — and it had done so 14 years ahead of the 2015 target date for the developing world as a whole.basically cheap labor is better than no labor
Last edited by brontosaurus on September 19th, 2005, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ppauper
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some are more equal than others.....QuoteThe Groucho club, Soho House and now the Shanghai StarBy Jim Pickard in London Affluent business people will each be invited to pay $100,000 a year to belong to a Shanghai private members' club located inside the biggest Ferris wheel in the world.The club will be the most expensive in China, according to Xu Qun, chairman of Zhejiang Huamen, the property company behind the scheme. Work on the Shanghai Star, in a rundown area about 3km north of the Bund waterfront, is set to start in May and be completed in three years' time.The club, which will be a lava-lamp shaped building set within the wheel, will offer one of the best views in the city to its 300-400 members. Access to the restaurants, bars and meeting rooms of the five-storey club will be through an elevator. Mr Xu said he was in talks with Planet Hollywood, the leisure group, about operating the club.The entry charge is a sign of the growing wealth of China, which is rapidly emerging as the economic powerhouse of Asia. Merrill Lynch recently estimated that the country now had 300,000 dollar millionaires a figure which others believe may be “conservative”.The Shanghai Star is one of a number of giant Ferris wheels being planned across the world in cities such as Moscow and Singapore. It has been designed with the help of the technical team behind the London Eye, which has become one of the biggest tourist attractions in the UK since opening in January 2000.Mr Xu, in an interview at his house in Shanghai's French Concession, said the group was in talks with US groups to raise extra financing. But he insisted the company had enough money from six Chinese banks to proceed with the 2.8bn renminbi ($347m) project.The Star is one of a number of projects set to raise Shanghai's profile ahead of the 2010 Expo event, with engineers already at work on the world's tallest building and longest suspension bridge in the city.

Topic Author
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Joined: February 1st, 2005, 11:21 pm

World's tallest building in Shanghai.

DominicConnor
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Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

Ppauper is the Ferris wheel for real ?If so, I have a mate from college who reckons who can build executive apartments in a hollowed out volcano.

brontosaurus
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Joined: May 10th, 2004, 8:33 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeWorld's tallest building in Shanghai.looks like a giant bottle opener

migalley
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Joined: June 13th, 2005, 10:54 am

Apparently the straight section inside the hole was added as an afterthought because the building has some sort of Japanese connection and the Chinese authorities were concerned (rightly or wrongly) that the circular hole would be taken to represent a Japanese "Rising Sun". Of course, a Rising Sun in the middle of Shanghai would be deemed offensive by the general population given the long history of animosity betweeen China and Japan.

ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: migalleyApparently the straight section inside the hole was added as an afterthoughtmaybe to allow arabs to fly through it ?