DCFC, I think you are a little over-paranoid towards China and North Korea.Right, that's why N.Korea has this huge offensive force within artillery range of Seoul ?I think that this is very improbable. N. Korea would not try, and China would not back them either.China backed it last time.The N.korean regime only has one friend, and that is China.S. Korea provides a lot of help to N. Korea. It is in the interest of the North to keep the South scared but not harmed.The problem with extortion is that every so often you need to break a few legs to show that you're serious. That can easily get out of hand.Also the victim may get it into his head to strike.If America suddenly pulled out, there would be a window of vulnerability before S.Korea built up it's capability. That would be the best time to strike.These days, China is only interested in economic growth, Chinese people certainly are, and good luck to them.China's leaders have a very different agenda.and would not embark into any war unless forced to, because it does not want to afford the cost.Clancy's law.Almost every nation that fired the first shot in war since the industrial revolution has lost. War is almost never a rational act.Even piss poor little wars like Iraq consume vast amounts of money, yet we observe they still happen.I doubt a direct war is likely any time soon. However, the boundary between selling arms to a country as a commercial transaction, and using it to build allies is often very blurred.What if Venezuela decided to swap some of the oil that China increasingly needs for a horde of cheap but respectable fighters, or perhaps missiles with the range to hit the USA ?China has full WMD capability, and a rapidly growing manufacturing base. I rather suspect that >5 years from now they will begin to own the low-mid range of international arms sales.Take Cuban missile crisis, and update it. China already sells lots of things to Iran. If a Chinese freighter carrying accurate long range ballistic missiles was spotted in the Gulf, what would the USA do ? What would Israel do ? Not saying this will lead to fights, but an expanding China means more of these points of friction.In any case the scenarios I described were semi-accidents, rather like pub fights. Someone bumps someone, they over-react, gets messy.May be when they grow a lot stronger, this might change, but then a lot might have changed.Things have already changed. I think the Chinese govt whatever you might of them is firstly and above all concerned about stability and growth."Stability" to China means very different things than to a civilised country.
Last edited by DominicConnor
on September 13th, 2005, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.