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ExSan
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

November 20th, 2009, 9:44 pm

QuoteSome governments have blamed the energy crisis on global warming. Countries like Venezuela and Ecuador are experiencing their worst droughts in 40 years. A drought in Ecuador has led to big reductions in water at the Paute dam This has led to a huge reduction in water levels at hydro electric plants which supply electricityDark truth about Latin American energyQuoteI will admit I didn't even know tropical glaciers existed – they sound like an oxymoron – until Oxfam invited me to see how rapidly they are disappearing. I looked up at the Auzangate Glacier near Cusco in the south of the country to see a white patch at the top of the mountain. Not so long ago, it stretched all the way down into the valley below. People all over the world are being deeply affected by something that many of us don't really consider in our day-to-day lives. In Peru, whole families of farmers depend on the water running off glaciers and into rivers. But because of the changes in temperature caused by global carbon emissions, the glaciers are retreating and the rivers are running dry. The farmers live on the crops they grow in the mountains and the yarn they spin from the coats of their alpaca herds. But they can no longer predict the seasons and the alpacas are leaving – it is almost as if they can sense the disaster faster than we canlives perilously close to catastrophe
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trackstar
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

November 22nd, 2009, 12:17 pm

Here is a little inside gossip for Sunday. In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes - Washington Post Nov 22Electronic files that were stolen from a prominent climate research center and made public last week provide a rare glimpse into the behind-the-scenes battle to shape the public perception of global warming. While few U.S. politicians bother to question whether humans are changing the world's climate -- nearly three years ago the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded the evidence was unequivocal -- public debate persists. And the newly disclosed private exchanges among climate scientists at Britain's Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia reveal an intellectual circle that appears to feel very much under attack, and eager to punish its enemies. In one e-mail, the center's director, Phil Jones, writes Pennsylvania State University's Michael E. Mann and questions whether the work of academics that question the link between human activities and global warming deserve to make it into the prestigious IPCC report, which represents the global consensus view on climate science. "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report," Jones writes. "Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" In another, Jones and Mann discuss how they can pressure an academic journal not to accept the work of climate skeptics with whom they disagree. "Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal," Mann writes.
Last edited by trackstar on November 22nd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

November 22nd, 2009, 2:09 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarIn one e-mail, the center's director, Phil Jones, writes Pennsylvania State University's Michael E. Mann and questions whether the work of academics that question the link between human activities and global warming deserve to make it into the prestigious IPCC report, which represents the global consensus view on climate science. "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report," Jones writes. "Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" In another, Jones and Mann discuss how they can pressure an academic journal not to accept the work of climate skeptics with whom they disagree. "Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal," Mann writes.This is blatant scientific fraud and the perpetrators should be discredited and fired. All science should be judged on the quality of it's methods, NOT on whether the results agree or disagree with any prevailing theories du jour. In fact, peer review should be changed so that reviewers can't even see the results of the experiment. (A recent experimental study found clear human bias in peer review processes -- papers with positive findings were judged to be of higher quality and fewer errors than were IDENTICAL papers that had negative findings).Climate science is both far too complex and far too important to allow the filtering of research using preconceived notions of what that research should show. If some study finds less temperature increase than expected or finds evidence of other contributing causes, we need to know that. We need both the positive and negative outliers to get an unbiased view of what's actually happening in our atmosphere. And if different pieces of research produce conflicting results, then we need to understand whether: 1) different methods introduced a positive or negative bias (and we then correct those biases with better methods); 2) natural variance induced the span of observed outcomes (and we should take the mean of the results or gather more data); or 3) some unexplored third variable explains the variance (and we need more research on that newly discovered climatological phenomenon). In contrast, filtered, biased research will decrease the quality of our methods, decrease the accuracy of our estimates, and decrease our understanding of the climate. The end results will be seriously flawed behaviors and policies.Worse, revelations of bias (such as we have here) will damage the credibility of the science such that consumer/voter behavior and government policy becomes even more a function of emotion/politics and less a function of knowledge/science than it is now. In other words, to Jones and Mann, I say, "Thanks a lot, assholes."
Last edited by Traden4Alpha on November 21st, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ppauper
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

November 25th, 2009, 9:54 am

NZers protest global cooling
 
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ppauper
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

November 25th, 2009, 10:04 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarIn one e-mail, the center's director, Phil Jones, writes Pennsylvania State University's Michael E. Mann and questions whether the work of academics that question the link between human activities and global warming deserve to make it into the prestigious IPCC report, which represents the global consensus view on climate science. "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report," Jones writes. "Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" In another, Jones and Mann discuss how they can pressure an academic journal not to accept the work of climate skeptics with whom they disagree. "Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal," Mann writes.This is blatant scientific fraud and the perpetrators should be discredited and fired. Indeed, and since these liars and fraudsters received a fraudulent Nobel prize for this fraud, should not the prize be revoked (and awarded to one of the other nominees, such as Rush Limbaugh)
 
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ppauper
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 2nd, 2009, 3:08 pm

It may already be too late !North Texas Wakes to Big Snowflakes
 
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farmer
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 3rd, 2009, 1:15 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaWorse, revelations of bias (such as we have here) will damage the credibility of the science such that consumer/voter behavior and government policy becomes even more a function of emotion/politics and less a function of knowledge/science than it is now.Where you are wrong, is that you ever imagine it could be anything but a tragic scam. The "temperature of the globe" is an imperceptible factor in people's lives, and therefore any way you even try to define those words will be arbitrary and irrelevant. It is impossible for voters to make good decisions absent direct, immediate, or at least perceptible costs and feedback to their decisions. So anything "real" that you imagine could take place is guaranteed to be dwarfed by a cancer which exploits the weaknesses of the political system, and thrives for nothing but its own survival.
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Cuchulainn
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 3rd, 2009, 1:25 pm

Crayola time again, yes?? I suppose politics and climate don't mix
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farmer
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 3rd, 2009, 1:44 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnCrayola time again, yes??Who told you that the shape of some glacier is relevant to your life?? AND WHY DID YOU BELIEVE HIM???RED PILL PLEASE!!!!!!!
 
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Cuchulainn
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December 3rd, 2009, 1:49 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnCrayola time again, yes??Who told you that the shape of some glacier is relevant to your life?? AND WHY DID YOU BELIEVE HIM???My local politician. You mean, it is a 'mental reservation'?
 
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farmer
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 3rd, 2009, 2:03 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnYou mean, it is a 'mental reservation'?Okay I give up, its all too complicated, just take my money and save me.
 
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exneratunrisk
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 4th, 2009, 7:57 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: Collector"Sceptics welcome BBC report on 'global cooling'"Climate change sceptics have welcomed a “surprise” BBC decision to give prominence to evidence from leading scientists that there could be 30 years of “global cooling”."Statisticians reject cooling claims by global warming skeptics"Yet the idea that things are cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, a BBC news story posted on the Drudge Report and in a new book by the authors of the best-seller "Freakonomics." Last week, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77 percent in 2006." I have no idea if there will be global warming or cooling, but I think many people got fed up with the initial false claims that basically every scientist agreed on human made global warming.The global climate is obviously extremely difficult to model or understand, there is simply too many factors we do not understand, is the long trend warming or cooling and what is the cause, and even a long term trend can obviously quickly be broken by a single event. But yes we have good indications from the history (and earth science) that the climate can change very rapidly (also without cars). The best strategy is possibly to be prepared for both rapid global cooling and warming!! Yes, I took the opportunity for my first cross country ski day at Ramsau (1200 m alt.). But this was followed by the warmest Nov for many years and I fear that my after-Christmas-cross-country-skiing-vacation booked at Ramsau will fall into the grass.The Scots say: if you don't like the weather, wait a minute. We might say: if you don't like the climate drift, wait a month?
 
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Fermion
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 4th, 2009, 8:42 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarIn one e-mail, the center's director, Phil Jones, writes Pennsylvania State University's Michael E. Mann and questions whether the work of academics that question the link between human activities and global warming deserve to make it into the prestigious IPCC report, which represents the global consensus view on climate science. "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report," Jones writes. "Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" In another, Jones and Mann discuss how they can pressure an academic journal not to accept the work of climate skeptics with whom they disagree. "Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal," Mann writes.This is blatant scientific fraud and the perpetrators should be discredited and fired. Apparently not.. It was merely politics. The scientific debate has been polluted by wealthy influential interests who have turned it into a political football with loud and persistent denial of the science accompanied by much ballyhoo. It's the usual story of a lot of noisy hot air full of talking points and spin. (Something you are very familiar with.) Unfortunately scientists have also had to resort to politics to counter that. As a scientist I may deplore that, but it is the reality we have to live with.QuoteAll science should be judged on the quality of it's methods, NOT on whether the results agree or disagree with any prevailing theories du jour. In fact, peer review should be changed so that reviewers can't even see the results of the experiment. (A recent experimental study found clear human bias in peer review processes -- papers with positive findings were judged to be of higher quality and fewer errors than were IDENTICAL papers that had negative findings).Agreed. But it's not just that sort of unconscious bias. "Peer review" has been a political football of a different sort (the politics of the scientific community) for decades because careers depend on it. Sometimes, ideological battles are fought out between rival groups attempting to control journals and using rejection for publication as a weapon. Einstein apparently declared that he would never submit his papers to peer review. I tend to follow the same principle and publish all my papers to the Los Alamos physics archive. Unfortunately the scientific establishment still imposes its dead hand on the peer-reviewed journals.But the confusion of this well understood and hotly debated issue has nothing to do with the science of global warming. Despite the hopes and propaganda of the well-financed deniers, global warming science does not fall with the publication of these emails.QuoteClimate science is both far too complex and far too important to allow the filtering of research using preconceived notions of what that research should show.But that's not what happened. Apparently it was all about presentation of a single graph. How to draw it in such a way as to influence the public and short-circuit the propaganda of the deniers (something which takes a lot of time, money and effort to counter every spurious piece of garbage they present) -- not to fudge the science. You and I can deplore that, but if you were in their shoes, faced with mountains of more work from ignorant self-publicising media manipulators would you really give up an opportunity to cut off one more spurious argument? I see you avoiding inconvenient arguments every day here. A biblical story about motes and beams comes to mind.QuoteIf some study finds less temperature increase than expected or finds evidence of other contributing causes, we need to know that. We need both the positive and negative outliers to get an unbiased view of what's actually happening in our atmosphere. And if different pieces of research produce conflicting results, then we need to understand whether: 1) different methods introduced a positive or negative bias (and we then correct those biases with better methods); 2) natural variance induced the span of observed outcomes (and we should take the mean of the results or gather more data); or 3) some unexplored third variable explains the variance (and we need more research on that newly discovered climatological phenomenon). In contrast, filtered, biased research will decrease the quality of our methods, decrease the accuracy of our estimates, and decrease our understanding of the climate. The end results will be seriously flawed behaviors and policies.Yes. And that is the job of scientists who are also having to deal with a lot of ignorant shouting from people with a vested interest in denying the science.
 
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ExSan
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 5th, 2009, 11:30 am

Fears are growing for the future of water supplies in one of Latin America's fastest-growing urban areas - Bolivia's sprawling city of La Paz and its neighbour El Altowatch the video
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Collector
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Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

December 5th, 2009, 12:29 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnCrayola time again, yes??Who told you that the shape of some glacier is relevant to your life?? AND WHY DID YOU BELIEVE HIM???My local politician. You mean, it is a 'mental reservation'?Netherland should potentially buy some land on Greenland, cheap hedge. Some people went there the last time some of the ice melted, but the happiness did not last too long The Broccoli back on on Greenland now, very good for you!!
Last edited by Collector on December 4th, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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