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PaperCut
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

November 8th, 2006, 10:01 pm

I seem to remember that Rubinstein (??) had a lecture or essay or something where he discussed a method to "go short" in horse race betting. Does anyone remember this? Does anyone know how this works??Thx
 
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zeta
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

November 9th, 2006, 12:24 pm

you want "Market efficiency in racetrack betting" by Peter Asch, Burton G. Malkiel or Hausch, D.B.; Ziemba, W.T.; and Rubinstein, M. 1981 "Efficiency of the market for racetrack betting" Management Science 27:1435-52
 
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rmax
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

November 9th, 2006, 3:01 pm

Use a large shot-gun or a Vice President.Oh - you said shorting
 
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Cuchulainn
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

November 9th, 2006, 3:14 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxUse a large shot-gun or a Vice President.Oh - you said shortingUnless of course the name of the horse is the famous Mr Ed.Edit: anyone remember who won that chess game?
Last edited by Cuchulainn on November 8th, 2006, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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zeta
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November 9th, 2006, 3:45 pm

probably Ed, though a few pieces were eaten and digested in the process.I heard recently that phar lap was poisoned, though a prominant vet says that high levels of arsenic were common in the 30'sA quote from Rubinstein's abstract: "This paper describes a technical system for place and show betting for which it appears to be possible to make substantial positive profits and thus to determine market inefficiency in a weak form sense"
 
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ppauper
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

November 9th, 2006, 6:47 pm

so in a nutshell, how does it work ?do you just bet on the other horses ?
 
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zeta
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

December 21st, 2006, 2:41 pm

Quoteso in a nutshell, how does it work ?I picked up ziemba's book for five bucks just today and when I understand a little more I'll let you know There is also this resource if anyone else here dabbles
 
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Cuchulainn
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

December 21st, 2006, 4:01 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: zetaQuoteso in a nutshell, how does it work ?I picked up ziemba's book for five bucks just today and when I understand a little more I'll let you know There is also this resource if anyone else here dabblesyes, for fun, In Dundalk, the kids like it. Cuch junior wins 50% on average... He has a method for picking winners, but I cannot tell you zeta. race courses Well, a hintQuoteHere are my ideas for horse racing:FIRST: I would decide on the relevant factors, for example:A. - Average Time for last 5 races (adjust for race length & track variant)B. - Average Dollars won per race this year and last yearC. - Win% this year and last (also consider place% and show%)D. - Days since last raceE. - Post Position Numbers A and E are important A long time ago I won a few bob on the legenedary MTOTO. talk of adreline pump! We still talk about it.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on December 20th, 2006, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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zeta
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

December 21st, 2006, 5:14 pm

are you sure cuch jnr couldn't throw a few freebies my way my grandfather was a good punter, sadly he ain't around to give me any tips
 
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Cuchulainn
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

December 21st, 2006, 5:44 pm

ik ben cuch junior en nu mijn tip...(a) en (e) lijken mij het besten.groet B
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
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http://www.datasim.nl
 
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zeta
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

December 21st, 2006, 5:51 pm

thanks cuch jnr... here's a link to a neural net approach (this is for the dog track; not exactly royal ascot )
 
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Cuchulainn
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

December 22nd, 2006, 9:50 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: zetathanks cuch jnr... here's a link to a neural net approach (this is for the dog track; not exactly royal ascot )Zeta,The method that comes closest to junior's tactic is ID3. I have observed the decision-making process and indeed is a kind of divide-and-conquer classification based on critical attrubutes.QuoteIn this section, we describe in detail the ID3 algorithm and our modifications to it for the greyhound application. ID3 is a decision-tree building algorithm developed by Quinlan [16]. It adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy for classification. Its goal is to classify mixed objects into their associated classes, based on the objects' attribute values. I think the decision then is based on a fuzzy number if the dog is a winner.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on December 21st, 2006, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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ppauper
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

June 27th, 2012, 3:44 pm

you can't get much shorter than this horse ?
 
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Cuchulainn
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

June 27th, 2012, 3:57 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: zetathanks cuch jnr... here's a link to a neural net approach (this is for the dog track; not exactly royal ascot )1 year later a buddy of jnr deployed (a) and (e) and won 10 out of 11 races.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Stutch
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Shorting a Horse in a Race

June 29th, 2012, 11:41 am

For fun I had a go with dog racing, using a simple back prop neural net and times on the sheets provided pre race. On 250m flat races I got between 2 and 4 out of 5 races correct. But odds on dogs are poor so not really worth it.With respect to shorting horses, on services like Betfair you can lay rather than back which is effectively a short, even after the off.The same with anything else like football. You can lay particular scores like 0-0 too.
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