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farmer
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:10 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelmy point dear farmer is that with the Iowa Pres markets you got to back your view whereas some stupid idiot from Gallup calss you up you tell them anything. its costs you nothing.You also remind me a little but of CrashedMint when you post a stale chart. At the time you posted that chart, the real numbers - in response to the Gallup Poll - were actually 51.5/48.5 on Intrade.So just as CrashedMint posted a chart that gave McCain an implied lead without realizing it, so did you post a chart which, once updated specifically to reflect the Gallup numbers, will probably put it at a tie.
 
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daveangel
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:11 pm

QuoteI will sound strange to tell you that I don't think that was your point. I think the first half was your point. But the second half, where you suggest that people have to pay to vote in the election or something, I think is sort of an oversized typo on your part. What was I thinking ? Of course, you know what I was thinking !
Last edited by daveangel on September 7th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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farmer
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerso did you post a chart which, once updated specifically to reflect the Gallup numbers, will probably put it at a tie.50.3/49.8 now.
 
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ppauper
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:26 pm

hussein on This Week: "My Muslim Faith"wow !he finally came clean and admitted it !Quote"What I was suggesting – you're absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Muslim faith. "
 
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ppauper
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:30 pm

'His mother often went to the church, but Barry was Muslim. He went to the mosque. I remember him wearing a sarong'
 
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farmer
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:40 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelmy point dear farmer is that with the Iowa Pres markets you got to back your view whereas some stupid idiot from Gallup calss you up you tell them anything. its costs you nothing.And now McCain is up over Obama 50.5 to 49.5 in the betting markets. Meaning quite simply that the Gallup poll leads and the betting markets follow...Or were you suggesting that bettors look to the stars or something, rather than a poll of actual voters?
 
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daveangel
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 12:52 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelmy point dear farmer is that with the Iowa Pres markets you got to back your view whereas some stupid idiot from Gallup calss you up you tell them anything. its costs you nothing.And now McCain is up over Obama 50.5 to 49.5 in the betting markets. Meaning quite simply that the Gallup poll leads and the betting markets follow...Or were you suggesting that bettors look to the stars or something, rather than a poll of actual voters?which markets are these ?
knowledge comes, wisdom lingers
 
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Marsden
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 2:28 pm

QuoteAs a boy in Indonesia, Barack Obama crisscrossed the religious divide.So, sort of like the Republicans who split their worship between Jesus and Mammon?
 
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gardener3
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 6:09 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelmy point dear farmer is that with the Iowa Pres markets you got to back your view whereas some stupid idiot from Gallup calss you up you tell them anything. its costs you nothing.If you plan to sell the contract before the election it's not necessarily your own view. You could have a Keynesian beauty contest type situation. You try to figure out what some stupid idiot from Gallup thinks, what others think he thinks and what you think others think he thinks......
 
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gardener3
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 6:10 pm

QuoteAnd now McCain is up over Obama 50.5 to 49.5 in the betting markets. Must be due to peter puffer's posts.
 
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Marsden
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 7:20 pm

I think those markets are probably small enough that partisans use them for propaganda more than speculators use them for investing.Palin/McCain 2008Change we can bereave in!
 
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farmer
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 7:38 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: MarsdenI think those markets are probably small enough that partisans use them for propaganda more than speculators use them for investing.Agree 100%.
 
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daveangel
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 8:10 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: gardener3QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelmy point dear farmer is that with the Iowa Pres markets you got to back your view whereas some stupid idiot from Gallup calss you up you tell them anything. its costs you nothing.If you plan to sell the contract before the election it's not necessarily your own view. You could have a Keynesian beauty contest type situation. You try to figure out what some stupid idiot from Gallup thinks, what others think he thinks and what you think others think he thinks......well all the bookies are making prices showing Obama is favourite. So I guess if you and Mr farmer disagree why don't you call up Paddy Power and put some money down ?
knowledge comes, wisdom lingers
 
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gardener3
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 8:34 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: gardener3QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelmy point dear farmer is that with the Iowa Pres markets you got to back your view whereas some stupid idiot from Gallup calss you up you tell them anything. its costs you nothing.If you plan to sell the contract before the election it's not necessarily your own view. You could have a Keynesian beauty contest type situation. You try to figure out what some stupid idiot from Gallup thinks, what others think he thinks and what you think others think he thinks......well all the bookies are making prices showing Obama is favourite. So I guess if you and Mr farmer disagree why don't you call up Paddy Power and put some money down ?What does this have to do with what I said? What makes you think that I disagree with the bookies? You made a point that predictive accuracy goes up when money is involved. I just gave you one reason why thats not necessarily the case. Here's from a study comapring the two:The accuracy of prediction markets has been documented for both markets based on real-money and those based on play-money. To test how much extra accuracy can be obtained by using real money versus play-money, we set up a real-world on-line experiment pitting the predictions of TradeSports.com (real-money) against those of NewsFutures.com (play-money) regarding American Football outcomes during the fall/winter 2003 NFL season. As expected, both types of markets exhibited significant prediction powers, and remarkable performance compared to individual humans. But, perhaps surprisingly, the play-money markets did not perform any worse than the real-money markets. We speculate that this result reflects two opposing forces: real-money markets may better motivate information discovery while play-money market may yield more efficient information aggregation.
 
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TraderJoe
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Presidency in '08

September 8th, 2008, 10:37 pm

I'D JUST LIKE TO SAY, ON BEHALF OF THE REST OF THE WORLD .... VOTE BARACK OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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