Nine Errors in Gores Movie/Book? Well, sort of, but not really, and so what? None of this is a reason to dismiss Al Gores entire movie/book (An Inconvenient Truth), which on balance, IS scientifically accurate, IS a needed wake-up call that global warming is a serious threat, and IS a responsible and optimistic statement that we can mitigate this threat. Although the nine points raised by the judge are indeed the weak points scattered among the THOUSANDS of points that are scientific consensus and that are correctly reported in Gores movie and book, the nine points are NOT egregious errors. For example, Gore says in his movie/book that IF the Greenland and/or Antarctica ice sheets were to melt, THEN the sea level will rise dramatically (cf: pages 190 and 196). Note the hypothetical IF-THEN construction. Gores statement about rising sea levels, given the IF clause, is true. We cant rule out the possibility that substantial Antarctic/Greenland glacial ice sheet melting may happen anomalous melting has been seen, although the situation is complicated. The 2007 IPCC report does not include this possibility in its numerical estimates in this century due to the uncertainties, although it does discuss the issue over long time scales. If substantial melting does happen in spite of the uncertainties and there are good reasons to believe that complex ice dynamics are leading to considerably more rapid ice sheet decay than the current models indicate - Gores depiction of the disastrous consequences will be basically correct. A summary of the published research from the 2007 IPCC full Impacts report, Chapter 19, pages 793-794 concludes that: there is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the WAIS [West Antarctic ice sheets], would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1-4°C (relative to 1990-2000), causing a contribution to sea-level rise of 4-6 m or more (Meehl et al., 2007 Sections 10.7.4.3 and 10.7.4.4; Oppenheimer and Alley, 2004, 2005; Hansen, 2005).The issue here really involves a discussion of time scales, which are uncertain. Under the IPCC hypotheses, with medium confidence large sea-level rises will occur, perhaps on the order of centuries. Maybe longer or if were really lucky, never. Or maybe we will get large sea-level rises in times shorter than centuries, if the increase in temperature is above the IPCC 1-4°C figure, or if complex ice dynamics lead to faster glacier decay than predicted by the current models. Similar discussions could be held for the other eight points.RealClimates Review of the movieRealClimates review is at
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=299 and it says: How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought
There are a few scientific errors that are important in the film
For the most part, I think Gore gets the science right... The small errors don't detract from Gore's main point, which is that we in the United States have the technological and institutional ability to have a significant impact on the future trajectory of climate change.Bottom Line So, was Gore in error to bring up the possible scenario of a substantial rise in sea level along with showing the various landmaps that would have to be redrawn? No. In the book (p. 194-195), Gore shows pictures of Greenland ice melting from 1992 2005 and then jumps to the above much more severe IF-THEN scenario. Was this a leap of logic? Yes. Should the movie/book have mentioned the probable centuries-long or greater time scale for this scenario (and did this omission bother me)? Yes. Were the movie clips of ice walls crashing into the sea put in for dramatic effect? Yes. Could the movie/book have mentioned all the details and caveats in the IPCC reports? No way. Does any of this mean that Gores movie/book is on the whole misleading and scientifically incorrect? Certainly not. Is it the most accurate widely-popularized account of the science, impacts, and mitigation of global warming? You bet. Go see the movie and read the book.If you want more information in depth, read the IPCC reports. The real issue is that global warming exists, humans are causing global warming, global warming has serious impacts that are going to get worse, and we can do something about global warming if we act now. Al Gore has been at the forefront for communicating this message. Bravo Al Gore!-------------