QuoteOriginally posted by: AlanT4A and frenchX. I am sensing an arbitrage opp here. I will bet you each $100 this holds up throughall the new data collected by, lets say Dec 2012. If I'm wrong, you each win $100. If I'm right, you payme $25. Takers?Interesting! Alan, your obvious high-level of knowledge and calm demeanor shown on these forums suggests you have a rational model for the 4:1 odds. Yet your modest odds confirm my fears that even you don't think the data is as strong as the "4.9-sigma" or 1-in-2 million chance of a false result.Admittedly your bet isn't about the existence of the Higgs at this energy and decay signature but regards the next 6 months of data gathering, analysis, and refinement. That's a very different wager that's more tied to the expected volume of new data, volatility of data, and autocorrelation of systemic errors in the experimental methods than to the ultimate truth or falsehood of the "discovery." After all, the group that said "neutrinos travel faster than light" created corroborating data in a second experiment so the "holds up through all the new data by time, T" bet isn't a good one for methodology-skeptics like FrenchX and myself.For the record, I suspect they have found the Higgs but I'm far less confident on the odds due to the potential for systematic errors in the process. Thus, you and I might actually agree that they've probably found the Higgs, but the certainty isn't very high.
Last edited by Traden4Alpha
on July 4th, 2012, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.