SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

 
User avatar
ppauper
Topic Author
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

chevy volt

September 17th, 2008, 12:48 pm

why would anyone buy one of these ?they're plug-in hybrid cars which can go 40miles on a charge before the gasoline engine kicks in If the guy touting them on CBS's morning show is to be believed:1) they cost $35-40k and look like cars that would cost $15-20k tops if they were gasoline only2) they cost 1-2 cents/mile to run versus 10-12 cents/mile for a gasoline car of the same size, so you save 8-11 cents a milesLet's say you drove it the full 40 miles from the charge every day (365 days a year) = 14600 miles a yearCall it 15000 to make the math easier.Times 8-11 cents a mile = you save $1200 - $1650 a year.You're paying $20k extra to save $1650 a year ?And that's assuming the batteries don't die and cost $$$$ to replace
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 62053
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

chevy volt

September 17th, 2008, 1:02 pm

Quotewhy would anyone buy one of these ?It looks a bit dear. But the prices will drop in due time, for sure. People have made the *irreversible* mental switch (whether it is realistic or not): fossil oils disappearing, unsure, and $$$. Of course, as buyer I would do some tenders and get at least 3 proposals.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 16th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Topic Author
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

chevy volt

September 17th, 2008, 1:02 pm

chevy volt
 
User avatar
ppauper
Topic Author
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

chevy volt

September 17th, 2008, 1:09 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuotewhy would anyone buy one of these ?It looks a bit dear. But the prices will drop in due time, for sure..my point being that at the moment, they're not competitive:they cost $20k more to buy and you save about $1500 a year on gas.Not ready for prime time
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

chevy volt

September 20th, 2008, 2:22 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuotewhy would anyone buy one of these ?It looks a bit dear. But the prices will drop in due time, for sure..my point being that at the moment, they're not competitive:they cost $20k more to buy and you save about $1500 a year on gas.Not ready for prime timePrius is in the same economic boat -- its a "save-the-planet" appeal and a consumer status marketing play.But economically, these hybrids can never be cheaper because Cost(Engine) < Cost(Engine+Generator+Battery). Moreover, the thermodynamics/chemistry of combustible fuels vs. batteries makes fuels immensely more energy dense.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 62053
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

chevy volt

September 20th, 2008, 5:42 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuotewhy would anyone buy one of these ?It looks a bit dear. But the prices will drop in due time, for sure..my point being that at the moment, they're not competitive:they cost $20k more to buy and you save about $1500 a year on gas.Not ready for prime timePrius is in the same economic boat -- its a "save-the-planet" appeal and a consumer status marketing play.But economically, these hybrids can never be cheaper because Cost(Engine) < Cost(Engine+Generator+Battery). Moreover, the thermodynamics/chemistry of combustible fuels vs. batteries makes fuels immensely more energy dense.You forgot the Cost([petrol, gas, benizine]) in your equation . The hardware's not the problem, it's da juice. I think Toyota will come up with an answer.Here in this part of EU land 'gas' costs Euro 1.51 per litre!!!!! So, this makes a good spreadsheet exercise to calculate the break-even point. My hunch is that it will be feasible, no matter what. I will miss the Subaru, however
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 19th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

chevy volt

September 21st, 2008, 9:39 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuotewhy would anyone buy one of these ?It looks a bit dear. But the prices will drop in due time, for sure..my point being that at the moment, they're not competitive:they cost $20k more to buy and you save about $1500 a year on gas.Not ready for prime timePrius is in the same economic boat -- its a "save-the-planet" appeal and a consumer status marketing play.But economically, these hybrids can never be cheaper because Cost(Engine) < Cost(Engine+Generator+Battery). Moreover, the thermodynamics/chemistry of combustible fuels vs. batteries makes fuels immensely more energy dense.You forgot the Cost([petrol, gas, benizine]) in your equation . The hardware's not the problem, it's da juice. I think Toyota will come up with an answer.Here in this part of EU land 'gas' costs Euro 1.51 per litre!!!!! So, this makes a good spreadsheet exercise to calculate the break-even point. My hunch is that it will be feasible, no matter what. I will miss the Subaru, however True. However, then we get into a more complex analysis of the infrastructure costs of centralized electricity production and distribution versus centralized gasoline production and distribution (and the respective inefficiencies in the two processes). Clearly Chevy's own numbers prove that the current Volt has higher total car+fuel costs than a comparable non-hybrid car in the US. The economics are, no doubt, different in Europe. Is electricity cheap in Europe?Ultimately, I do agree that hybrids will decrease in costs, although the upfront cost for a hybrid will alway be higher than the cost of a conventional-engined car. Whether hybrids reach cost effectiveness (and where) will probably depend more on carbon tax/regulatory policy than on straight energy price issues.
Last edited by Traden4Alpha on September 20th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 10768
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

chevy volt

September 21st, 2008, 9:54 pm

This was the big hit at a recent show in London.P
 
User avatar
farmer
Posts: 13477
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 10:57 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulThis was the big hit That's just because people can't afford what they really want:
 
User avatar
ppauper
Topic Author
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 12:32 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnYou forgot the Cost([petrol, gas, benizine]) in your equation . The hardware's not the problem, it's da juice.no, I didn't:my earlier post wasQuote1) they cost $35-40k and look like cars that would cost $15-20k tops if they were gasoline only2) they cost 1-2 cents/mile to run versus 10-12 cents/mile for a gasoline car of the same size, so you save 8-11 cents a milesLet's say you drove it the full 40 miles from the charge every day (365 days a year) = 14600 miles a yearCall it 15000 to make the math easier.Times 8-11 cents a mile = you save $1200 - $1650 a year.You're paying $20k extra to save $1650 a year ?And that's assuming the batteries don't die and cost $$$$ to replaceEven if electricity was free, you'd only save $1800 a year (driving the 15000 miles a year I gave as an example) for which you're paying $20k extra.The general expectation for hybrid battery life seems to be in the 8-10 year range, so be generous and take 10 years for the battery life, and it would never pay for itself.I always want to see the lease rates on these things as they make the calculations easier (just compare the monthly payments on the 2 choices) but GM has stopped leasing....
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 10768
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 12:39 pm

farmer, we have sooooo many of those in my neighbourhood, it's become embarrassing!P
 
User avatar
farmer
Posts: 13477
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 12:50 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Paulfarmer, we have sooooo many of those in my neighbourhood, it's become embarrassing!Awesome!And also a little bit noisy, I am guessing.QuoteJuly 17, 2007 - From very reliable sources we found out that Bugatti is going to produce the convertible version of its Veyron in a limited edition of 80 units. The new Veyron convertible will look more like a targa version of its older brotherQuoteAugust 1, 2008 - Bugatti just announced and revealed Bugatti Veyron Convertible Targa called, The Bugatti Veyron Grand Sport. The new roadster which has a removable roof will be built in Spring 2009 and will be auctioned the next day at the renown Gooding auction at the Equestrian Center at Pebble Beach.QuoteThe danger for Bugatti isn't immediate. It will soon build a Veyron spider, complete with a lift-off top. (Unfortunately, the decreased structural rigidity means that top speed must be limited to 217 mph, compared with the hardtop's 252 mph, a move that could affect its appeal.) But the spider at least buys some time, and the additional body style also camouflages the fact that the fixed-roof car probably won't achieve its 300-unit sales target, which now seems optimistic.The real question for Bugatti, however, is, "What's next?"It's not going to be the $60,000 four-cylinder, mid-engine roadster [Ignition, August 2006]. That idea has been shelved--partly because VW dropped out as the high-volume partner and partly because neither the brand nor the dealer network is ready for a car in that price class. And it won't be the rumored front-engine Royale ultrasedan. Volkswagen is not eager to repeat the Veyron experience with a four-door model.That leaves only two real options. The first is a new front-engine car priced at about $150,000. It would appear first as a two-plus-two coupe and then as a convertible. Bugatti could add a stretched, four-door sedan version later. Engineers have focused on using Audi's 4.2-liter FSI V-8--which delivers about 550 hp in twin-turbo guise--as the powerplant; it would be paired with a rear transaxle. Suggested volume for the car is about 5000 units per year. But this plan is garnering a lot of internal opposition from Porsche, Bentley, Lamborghini, and Audi, who think that a $150,000 Bugatti would be too close to the upcoming Porsche Panamera, the Bentley Continental family, the Audi R8, and the Lamborghini Gallardo.If the funding tap gets turned off, Bugatti's only remaining option may be coachbuilt one-offs.
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 10768
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 1:03 pm

They are usually to be found in the underground car park being cleaned and polished!P
 
User avatar
farmer
Posts: 13477
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 1:47 pm

.
Last edited by farmer on September 21st, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Topic Author
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

chevy volt

September 22nd, 2008, 10:01 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulThey are usually to be found in the underground car park being cleaned and polished!reminds me of an old episode of Friends where joey pretended a porsche parked on the street was his and cleaned an polished it to get chicks
ABOUT WILMOTT

PW by JB

Wilmott.com has been "Serving the Quantitative Finance Community" since 2001. Continued...


Twitter LinkedIn Instagram

JOBS BOARD

JOBS BOARD

Looking for a quant job, risk, algo trading,...? Browse jobs here...


GZIP: On