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Traden4Alpha
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How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

October 30th, 2009, 8:34 pm

I had no idea that Courvoisier had antiviral properties but I'm willing to try anything especially if it offers a pleasant placebo effect. Personally, I like the Agatha Christie approach to illness. One simply doesn't let oneself be ruled by corporeal maladies. Stiff upper lip and all that!
 
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trackstar
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How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

March 31st, 2012, 9:09 pm

News from the Hive:Pesticides Play Role in Bees Decline - NYT March 30 "Scientists have been alarmed and puzzled by declines in bee populations in the United States and other parts of the world. They have suspected that pesticides are playing a part, but to date their experiments have yielded conflicting, ambiguous results. In Thursday?s issue of the journal Science, two teams of researchers published studies suggesting that low levels of a common pesticide can have significant effects on bee colonies. One experiment, conducted by French researchers, indicates that the chemicals fog honeybee brains, making it harder for them to find their way home. The other study, by scientists in Britain, suggests that they keep bumblebees from supplying their hives with enough food to produce new queens. The authors of both studies contend that their results raise serious questions about the use of the pesticides, known as neonicotinoids."...More on the link
Last edited by trackstar on March 30th, 2012, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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trackstar
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How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

May 21st, 2014, 11:47 pm

Purely by chance, I came across this article this evening:US Bee Losses Drop But Not Enough - Nature May 15This is very interesting in a serendipitous way - we were talking about bee losses and pandemics here a few years ago.In the article, there is a graph and the results this past winter were not as bad as 2012-13. "America's beekeepers lost nearly one-quarter of their colonies over the last winter - a dramatic improvement on previous years but still worse than what farmers consider sustainable rates.Honeybee colonies across the world are under pressure from a variety of threats, including insecticide use, parasites and problems with food supply. In some parts of the world populations have been devastated by a poorly understood and nebulously defined "colony-collapse disorder".Today the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the results of an annual survey of farmed honeybees that it has been running for the past eight years to try and get a handle on the scale of the problem. Data from 7,183 beekeepers and 564,522 of the country's 2.6 million colonies found that 23.2% of hives died over the 2013?14 winter.In 2012-13 this figure was 30.5%. A loss of 18.9% was considered sustainable by those surveyed (some scientists believe 15% or even 10% should be the acceptable level)."While we're glad to see improvement this year, losses are still too high and there is still much more work to be done to stabilize bee populations," said US agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack in a statement."More on the link.Let's hope that things get better for the bee colonies!
Last edited by trackstar on May 21st, 2014, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ppauper
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 30th, 2019, 4:51 pm

"This is not to say that the cultural dimensions associated with T. gondii are necessarily undesirable," noted Lafferty. "After all, they add to our cultural diversity."and potentially broken toes Cat Parasite May Affect Cultural Traits in Human Populations
this parasite has been discussed several times here
Mind-altering parasite spread by CATS and carried by billions of people worldwide 'may lead to schizophrenia in humans'
 
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bearish
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 30th, 2019, 5:50 pm

The least they could do is to control for cat ownership. I would not be shocked if that is correlated with mental conditions (and seems highly like to cause T. gondii infection).
 
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katastrofa
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 30th, 2019, 5:52 pm

I'm 100% sure that if they compare it against data on several other diseases, they will find more "may-leads". It's mathematically proven.
 
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trackstar
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 25th, 2020, 6:27 pm

Watching the news unfold about the coronavirus made me think about this thread.

Some sources point to a seafood and live animal market, but Wuhan is also the location of a large bio research lab.

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens - Nature February 22, 2017

"Maximum-security biolab is part of plan to build network of BSL-4 facilities across China"

so, one wonders...

Will be reading more and interested to hear what others think about possible vectors and current situation.

Map from 1/21/20 - New York Times

Image
Add France (3 cases) and US (2 cases).

Reports indicated that these 5 people had been in Wuhan recently.

In the US, as of 1/24, 
"The CDC is also investigating another 61 potential cases from 22 states. Eleven have tested negative, and results from the rest are pending."
 
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tw
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 25th, 2020, 6:59 pm

the gift for the disease nerd who was everything:  infectious diseases top trump

Rabies is still the ultimate card to hold: essentially 100% fatality! 

Watching the news unfold about the coronavirus made me think about this thread.thing:
Some sources point to a seafood and live animal market, but Wuhan is also the location of a large bio research lab.

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens - Nature February 22, 2017

"Maximum-security biolab is part of plan to build network of BSL-4 facilities across China"

so, one wonders...

Will be reading more and interested to hear what others think about possible vectors and current situation.

Map from 1/21/20 - New York Times

Image
Add France (3 cases) and US (2 cases).

Reports indicated that these 5 people had been in Wuhan recently.

In the US, as of 1/24, 
"The CDC is also investigating another 61 potential cases from 22 states. Eleven have tested negative, and results from the rest are pending."
 
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trackstar
Posts: 27270
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 25th, 2020, 7:40 pm

Not belittling the fear and suffering out there at all, but here is a narrative for a movie.

An infected laboratory animal escapes (mouse or rat).
Is eaten by a snake some distance away from the facility.
The snake is captured (at random) and brought to the live animal market to be sold...

Never mind if it could not really happen that way.

This is like The Stand by Stephen King. One of his scariest books and was great beach reading a long time ago. 
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 25th, 2020, 8:27 pm

Is R0 useful? Seems a very unsophisticated parameter.
 
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trackstar
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 25th, 2020, 8:33 pm

Is R0 useful? Seems a very unsophisticated parameter.
A paper (January 2019) from the CDC critiquing R0:

Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)
in Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal:
EID Journal Volume 25 Number 1—January 2019

Abstract:

The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. R0 is rarely measured directly, and modeled R0 values are dependent on model structures and assumptions. Some R0 values reported in the scientific literature are likely obsolete. R0 must be estimated, reported, and applied with great caution because this basic metric is far from simple.



 
 
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katastrofa
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Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 26th, 2020, 1:29 am

The link between the Novichok and Salisbury turned out to be false, but Chinese labs have proven to be leaky (Pekin Lab and SARS). Maybe the truth will leak through the Chinese wall one day.

I'm more intrigued by the problem of quarantining a city in a densely populated country. With no natural barriers, a sharp border of the quarantined area doesn't seem to guarantee much protection. Should they introduce quarantine zones around the source?

BTW, fire in the lab in Kolcovo (smallpox and the like) :-)
 
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Alan
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 26th, 2020, 4:37 am

Deadly coronavirus finds a breeding ground in China's food markets


BEIJING/HONG KONG/SHANGHAI – Leaning over a metal cage stuffed with live hens in Shanghai, Ran looked for just the right specimen for her chicken soup. The 60-year-old was shopping at one of China’s wet markets, where sales of freshly slaughtered, unpackaged meat have become the focus of an investigation into an outbreak of a potentially deadly lung virus....

"Wet markets" -- sounds like something out of a William Gibson novel.
 
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bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 26th, 2020, 2:13 pm

I don't think he has specifically described one, but this about a store in Tokyo: 

"You could buy a burrito there, a lottery ticket, batteries, tests for various diseases. You could do voice-mail, e-mail, send faxes. It had occurred to Laney that this was probably the only store for miles that sold anything that anyone ever really needed; the others all sold things that he couldn’t even imagine wanting."

Other musings by the same character that somebody around here may find of interest: 

"Laney had recently noticed that the only people who had titles that clearly described their jobs had jobs he wouldn’t have wanted. If people asked him what he did, he said he was a quantitative analyst."
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 26th, 2020, 4:18 pm

"All models are wrong, some are useful". 
I would have thought that AI would have predicted it months ago.
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