SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

 
User avatar
Alan
Posts: 10026
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 26th, 2020, 10:39 pm

I don't think he has specifically described one, but this about a store in Tokyo: 

"You could buy a burrito there, a lottery ticket, batteries, tests for various diseases. You could do voice-mail, e-mail, send faxes. It had occurred to Laney that this was probably the only store for miles that sold anything that anyone ever really needed; the others all sold things that he couldn’t even imagine wanting."

Other musings by the same character that somebody around here may find of interest: 

"Laney had recently noticed that the only people who had titles that clearly described their jobs had jobs he wouldn’t have wanted. If people asked him what he did, he said he was a quantitative analyst."

You have a good memory for Gibson. Actually, I didn't mean "wet markets" as literally described in the article, but something more like "wet markets" as some place to buy wetware or some similar cyber-punkish wet-thingy.
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 27th, 2020, 12:15 am

You mean like: "A pair of predatory-looking Christian Scientists were edging toward a trio of young office techs who wore idealized holographic vaginas on their wrists, wet pink glittering under the harsh lighting. "
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 8946
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 27th, 2020, 3:03 am

Lucky Dragon is a popular name for Japanese establishments (after the fishing boat nuked by Yankees - or was that Godzilla's attack?). I wonder if Gibson took inspiration from any real place. There's a description of Akihabara in the book too. Japan is cool.
 
User avatar
Alan
Posts: 10026
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 27th, 2020, 7:27 pm

You mean like: "A pair of predatory-looking Christian Scientists were edging toward a trio of young office techs who wore idealized holographic vaginas on their wrists, wet pink glittering under the harsh lighting. "

Probably not a fashion prediction by Gibson that is going to catch on. Although I would have said the same about Pussyhats.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 61518
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 12:57 pm

red scare?

Image
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget
 
User avatar
trackstar
Posts: 27270
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 1:14 pm

red scare?

Image
I’m getting ready to do a big provision shopping for my bunker this morning.

Then will just settle in and watch.

I have enough books and music to last a very long time, but water, fruit and veggies are a concern.

And please don’t suggest Spam!
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 61518
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 2:37 pm

All you need is this, have  a few and don't worry!

Image


Image
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget
 
User avatar
trackstar
Posts: 27270
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 2:49 pm

All you need is this, have  a few and don't worry!
You are very kind - thank you, but I am not worried.

I am just a very logistical and practical person and its wise to stock up a little before other people do get worried.

You should see the behavior in supermarkets around here when a really big snow storm is predicted.... 

I also feel sorry for people that are in Wuhan and elsewhere who have the virus right now, but we'll learn more about survival rates and contagion as time progresses.
 
User avatar
tw
Posts: 1173
Joined: May 10th, 2002, 3:30 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 2:51 pm

red scare?

Image
Why French Guyana?
 
User avatar
trackstar
Posts: 27270
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 2:54 pm

Why French Guyana?

Probably someone on a flight.  Either visibly sick or not.

One of the problems with this virus is that it seems to be contagious  even *before* symptoms are seen.

So you could have it and not even know it and you can't self quarantine based on clear suspicion/evidence the way you normally would.

I was intending to go to London on business in the next month or so, but I'll hold off and see how this whole thing develops.

I don't want to bring germs to other people and of course I'm more vulnerable myself if I leave my small town, which is pretty far out, even from a medium-sized city and major airport.

Anyway this comes back to sounding like worry, but it's not.  It's Thinking. : )
 
User avatar
Alan
Posts: 10026
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 3:33 pm

Lucky Dragon is a popular name for Japanese establishments (after the fishing boat nuked by Yankees - or was that Godzilla's attack?). I wonder if Gibson took inspiration from any real place. There's a description of Akihabara in the book too. Japan is cool.

Apparently, he spent a lot of time there: My Own Private Tokyo
How does he manage to write like that, so that every single paragraph seems quotable?! 
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 61518
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 4:53 pm

Why French Guyana?

Probably someone on a flight.  Either visibly sick or not.

One of the problems with this virus is that it seems to be contagious  even *before* symptoms are seen.

So you could have it and not even know it and you can't self quarantine based on clear suspicion/evidence the way you normally would.

I was intending to go to London on business in the next month or so, but I'll hold off and see how this whole thing develops.

I don't want to bring germs to other people and of course I'm more vulnerable myself if I leave my small town, which is pretty far out, even from a medium-sized city and major airport.

Anyway this comes back to sounding like worry, but it's not.  It's Thinking. : )
USA and Canada look scary.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget
 
User avatar
trackstar
Posts: 27270
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 4:58 pm


USA and Canada look scary.
Well there really should be some kind of color or pattern coding and a legend showing how many confirmed cases and all how many fatalities and the location by state/region. 

The US has about 5 confirmed cases right now. 
US: Washington (state), Illinois, California, and Arizona. All 5 cases are people who were recently in Wuhan.
 
User avatar
tw
Posts: 1173
Joined: May 10th, 2002, 3:30 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 5:36 pm


USA and Canada look scary.
Well there really should be some kind of color or pattern coding and a legend showing how many confirmed cases and all how many fatalities and the location by state/region. 

The US has about 5 confirmed cases right now. 
US: Washington (state), Illinois, California, and Arizona. All 5 cases are people who were recently in Wuhan.
This seems a clear example of life imitating art.

Army of the 12 Monkeys = Extinction Rebellion
CoronaVirus = "Kalavirus, also referred to in the scientific community as M5-10"
Brad Pitt = Greta Thunberg.
Madeline Stowe=trackstar
Bruce Willis=??

Still, it will be nice for someone to see lions prowling NYC.
 
User avatar
trackstar
Posts: 27270
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

January 28th, 2020, 6:04 pm

LOL. Thanks.  I think could change the plot a bit and have a heroic quant played by our own PW who divides and conquers the plague using some fancy maths and magic pulled from a monkey hat.

Image
The film is somewhat like Bladerunner, so great to see with your favorite popcorn blend while hiding under a warm blanket in your house... Haha

But seriously, I have just joined a highly competitive rowing team and the winter workout schedule will be intense.

So I want to avoid the coronavirus (and every other type of flu) because spring racing season is coming soon. Can't wait!
ABOUT WILMOTT

PW by JB

Wilmott.com has been "Serving the Quantitative Finance Community" since 2001. Continued...


Twitter LinkedIn Instagram

JOBS BOARD

JOBS BOARD

Looking for a quant job, risk, algo trading,...? Browse jobs here...


GZIP: On