They say 135 of the new deaths are due to a new diagnosis classification. Whatever that means. Were they all on one day? Are they going to reclassify old deaths as well? If so, do we just multiply all previous numbers by 2.5, say?
"What is the new diagnosis method?
The province now includes "clinically diagnosed cases" in the number of confirmed cases.
This means it includes those showing symptoms, and having a CT scan showing an infected lung, rather than relying only on the standard nucleic acid tests.
Of the 242 new deaths in Wuhan, 135 are such "clinically diagnosed" cases.
That means, even without the new definition, the number of deaths in Hubei on Wednesday was 107 - a new high for the province.
The province's 14,840 new infections include 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases.
Overall, the province now has 48,206 confirmed infections."
Sharp increase in deaths and cases in Hubei - BBC News Feb 13
Also watching for medical papers. This article (by your favorite news source!) is at least fairly detailed, balanced, and informative.
Much of the reporting, especially since this new turn of events, has featured sensationalist and scary headlines and either not enough details or even wrong information - e.g. leaving out the CT scan, not explaining how such a change effects the stats etc.
""Clinically diagnosed cases" are those patients who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have been unable to be scientifically tested, or died before they were tested. The hope is that more people will be able to receive treatment by allowing doctors to diagnose them with the virus."
...big jump in cases as country expands diagnosis - CNN Feb 13
The WHO has issued special advisories for developing countries, as they may lack the resources and information flows to discern, address, and report any cases that emerge.
Scientists fear coronavirus spread in countries least able to contain it - Nature Feb 13
"The possibility of unreported cases is particularly concerning in countries with weaker health-care systems, such as those in southeast Asia and Africa, which could quickly be overwhelmed by a local outbreak, experts say. Although no cases have yet been reported in Africa, some countries there, such as Nigeria, are at particular risk because of their strong business ties to China.
Researchers have been using flight data to create models of the virus’s possible spread around the world. On 11 February, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses officially named the virus SARS-CoV-2, highlighting its similarity to the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
One model identified 30 countries or regions at risk of importing SARS-CoV-2 on the basis of the large number of flights from Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicentre, and from other cities in China with many travellers from Wuhan. The model used flight data from February 2018."
Also cited in that article from Nature:
1) Lai, S. et al. Preprint on medRxiv https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20020479v1
Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study
Shengjie Lai, Isaac Bogoch, Nick Ruktanonchai, Alexander Watts, Yu Li, Jianzing Yu, Xin Lv, Weizhong Yang, Hongjie Yu, Kamran Khan, Zhongjie Li, Andrew J Tatem
2) De Salazar, P. M., Niehus, R., Taylor, A., Buckee, C. & Lipsitch, M. Preprint on medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495
Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases
Pablo M De Salazar, Rene Niehus, Aimee Taylor, Caroline O Buckee, Marc Lipsitch
3) Gilbert, M. et al. Preprint on medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020792
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV
Marius Gilbert, Giulia Pullano, Francesco Pinotti, Eugenio Valdano, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boelle, Eric D'Ortenzio, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Serge Paul Eholie, Mathias Altmann, Bernardo Gutierrez, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Vittoria Colizza
Very long post and that's enough from me for now. But maybe useful for some of you who can critique models and build your own, as Paul is doing.