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Collector
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 17th, 2020, 9:04 pm

by country, a new country on the list: (diamonds do not last forever, it is a myth)
Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 10.02.26 PM.png
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

chinas strategy seems to work, or at least buy time...
 
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bearish
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 17th, 2020, 9:27 pm

Kojak was pretty big in Norway. Then again, so was Derrick. When you only have one TV channel, you take what you can get.
I had not heard of Derrick but looked it up.

One last off Off topic for me and I will hit the road. : D

The Rolling Stones have announced a new US tour for this spring and summer!

Hooray!!  I have seen them several times and always fantastic. 

Call them fossils if you want, but this is the perfect pandemic antidote for me.

Image
Take care and carry plenty of cash and Kleenex! 
We're OT'ing the OT here, but I saw those guys play in 1997, and they were o-l-d. The fact that they are not merely alive, but touring the world and playing music for money is nothing short of astonishing!
 
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trackstar
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 17th, 2020, 9:34 pm

Looking forward to Buffalo to start - might pick a few more shows as well.

back to science of pandemics here, but watch another thread for an apropos post... ; )
 
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Collector
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 18th, 2020, 11:55 pm

tragic, whole family die from corona

Chinese film director Chang Kai and family die from coronavirus

"A Chinese film director, his sister, mother and father have all died from the coronavirus, the latest high-profile victims of the disease in Wuhan, the city at the centre of the outbreak."

"Others have died despite intensive medical care "

intensive care in europe after a few gets it, forget it, they spend 2 years to even plan a new hospital...
 
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katastrofa
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 19th, 2020, 7:27 am

I was concerned about this one: 3 new cases of COVID-19 in Singapore: a 41-year-old Singaporean who was the first one reported not to have any known links to previous cases, and two Yong Thai Hang employees
That would potentially mean another infection cluster. The fact that such clusters form (around different infection sources) can explain the rapid jumps in the incidence that we've seen a couple of days ago. Percolation network applies with its bleak forecast:
Image
And when the giant component forms, quoting Fry from Futurama: "We're all gonna die!"

Two days ago they denied it, though: Singapore not 'epicentre' despite rise in cases, says Indonesia health minister
However, in the times of dramatic wildlife decline*, high-density population and mass air-travel (a nice simple model with flights included to SIR equations) something will breach the percolation threshold sooner or later.

[*] BTW, they don't know the exact mechanism, apparently, but they came up with a confusing (for me) theory:
The researchers don't know why the effect occurs. But they speculate that species that are better at buffering disease transmission — for example because they have low rates of reproduction or invest heavily in immunity — tend to die out first when diversity declines, whereas species that have high rates of reproduction or invest less in immunity — and thus are more likely to be disease hosts — survive for longer
Isn't the simplest explanation the fact that different species hosts different varieties of microorganisms**, which are often natural enemies of pathogens (other viruses, bacteria producing natural pesticides)? Their diversity declines with the diversity of their hosts, and thus there's a less versatile micro-army to fight the ingenious micro-enemies.

[**] BTW, seriously, adopt a cat or a dog and you'll be healthier - I've already posted a long list of references to studies reporting such findings.

Anyway, covid outgrew my pessimistic scenario by now. Any forecasts of the geoeconomic impact?
 
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tw
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 19th, 2020, 11:18 am

Global annihilation I can take (we have had it coming for a while now), but with mouldy toast as well???
Is there no justice?


Image

...
Anyway, covid outgrew my pessimistic scenario by now. Any forecasts of the geoeconomic impact?
 
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FaridMoussaoui
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 19th, 2020, 11:57 am

A good read on modeling the spreading risk of covid-19

also the data is available here
 
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 19th, 2020, 1:16 pm

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 2.10.13 PM.png
"In another case, a woman in Hefei, in the southeastern province of Anhui, sprayed so much rubbing alcohol on her clothes that when she went to the kitchen to check on food she was cooking two minutes later, it caused an explosion that left her with serious burns on her face and hands, according to the Guangzhou Daily."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050673/coronavirus-desperate-times-drive-some-chinese-people-take
 
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katastrofa
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 19th, 2020, 6:54 pm

A good read on modeling the spreading risk of covid-19

also the data is available here
Poor study, imho, and not innovative at all (which isn't wrong by itself).
Microstructure models with correlations of population characteristics are the only way to get convincing results rather than "believe" ("We believe the actual number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported to date." No estimates of the reliability of those results or anything - yet another useless paper. Just my opinion - sorry.)
 
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 26th, 2020, 12:48 am

and how will covid-19 affect the US election, it could be gone or it could hit in the middle of the election...if it hit, then TV commercials more valuable than imaginary crowd speeches.
Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 2.37.40 PM.png
 
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lloydsatchwell
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 26th, 2020, 7:27 am

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
One of the less sensational articles.

"The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
"the apparent ineffectiveness of such [containment] measures  —relative to their inordinate social and economic cost "
 
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katastrofa
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 26th, 2020, 10:28 am

Nice article. The situation tells a lot about the virus threat for humans in general. We've decimated the populations of intermediate animal species, who formed a natural barrier between microbes and humans. We are gradually closing ourselves in sterile bubbles by killing off bacteria and limiting the interaction with other species who enrich our microbiome and hence improve immunity (get a dog and the stinker will make you stronger, or a cat - I've posted links to research papers some time ago). There are more and more such pandemics to come, and each will take its 2-3% . ¡Adios, humanos!
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 26th, 2020, 4:47 pm

What happens if you have coronavirus in the US but don't have insurance (or don't want to use it because of copays etc.)?
 
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Collector
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

February 26th, 2020, 5:02 pm

if u think u could have it but not have it then 

A Miami man who flew to China worried he might have coronavirus. He may owe thousands

if u have it, then if you have savings u get treatment (forced in isolation and big cost per day) and a big bill, if u have no savings u get the cheapest treatment = body bag ????

I talked with a young health worker recently, she said there where no reason to worry, in general only old people above 50 would be severely affected. So everyone here can relax!
Last edited by Collector on February 26th, 2020, 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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