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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

March 23rd, 2020, 11:35 am

Harvey Weinstein has coronavirus. When plot lines come together like that it's a sign the movie is nearing the end. Then it's just closing credits. This was a Chop Fluey Production...
KlungFluKid.
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trackstar
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

March 26th, 2020, 9:14 am

Useful article In Forbes this morning - restates some of what we know, but also a chart comparing flu, Covid, SARS, and MERS with some data.  Done in “bio render.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswith ... 86cf7035f4

Image
Source: Forbes, March 26, 2020
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

March 26th, 2020, 7:42 pm

German low death rate due to more testing, confirmed.

Which means UK infected is probably in low hundreds of thousands.
 
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

March 26th, 2020, 9:51 pm

Some more data from the US - which states, counties, and cities have issued Stay at Home orders?

Interactive Map New York Times March 26

"This means at least 200 million people in 21 states, 47 counties and 14 cities are being urged to stay home...
The result is a patchwork of local and state directives that use a variety of terms, like “shelter in place,” or “safer at home.” But the stunning effect is the same: More than half of all Americans are or will soon be under instructions to stay at home."

Some good case studies possible using that information alongside this data set:

Current data by state in US: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ronavirus/

Updating select stats from yesterday.
Selection of percent increase and confirmed cases (CC) in Northeast since Sunday.
Updated as of 7:55 pm EST Wednesday, March 25 normal font
Updated as of 4:21 EST Thursday, March 26 BOLD (again percent increase and CCs since Sunday)

New York - +95% 
+139%
CC: 30,841 
37,769

New Jersey - +130% 
+259
CC: 4,402 
6,876

Massachusetts - +185% not updated yet
CC: 1,838

Connecticut - +292%  not updated yet
CC: 875

Total CC in US: 65,778 
80,021
Total Deaths: 942 
1,136

That's all for now. Wishing you all safe and pleasant evenings, as much as possible.
 
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 1st, 2020, 7:22 pm

You may have seen this in the news today:

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says - Bloomberg April 1

In particular, asymptomatic positives and deaths.

Not a huge surprise, and we already knew about some levels of inaccuracy, changes in reporting methodologies and so forth, but what does this do to estimations of R0, and what is the impact on other modeling factors that have been widely used in Europe and the US, with China as the benchmarking case?

It would be good to know if the asymptomatic positives have a different (weaker) strain of the virus and/or are less contagious themselves.  There could be more than one R0 if there are, as some have reported, up to 5 different strains of the virus circulating right now.

Perhaps some less than 1 and perhaps some over 3, which brings us to the median of 2.x.
Last edited by trackstar on April 1st, 2020, 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 1st, 2020, 7:29 pm

I don't expect it to make that much difference. We have honest data now from outside China. 

It didn't help matters that the WHO are sucking up to a communist regime, believing any nonsense they are told, and are worrying more about political correctness and not offending dodgy governments than about saving lives. Not surprising though since they are part of the now useless UN.

A lot of people and institutions are coming out of this badly:

China

WHO

Some police

Some politicians, although surprisingly few

Many commentators (the "gotcha" theme continues)

And eventually some mathematicians will be criticized, but that might have to wait until the dust settles.
 
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 1st, 2020, 7:32 pm

I have been looking at the Johns Hopkins data a couple of times a day and they have added log scale to their dashboard.

From previous upward curve in US - it leveled a bit and then continues to go up now.

Not saying this is a valid reason for foolish optimism at the moment, but you can see for yourself: 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I compare Italy, Spain and China log scale with US currently.

See also, a write-up in their data center: "Has the curve flattened?" - updated on March 30:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases
Last edited by trackstar on April 1st, 2020, 7:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 1st, 2020, 7:36 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is much better. (And they've had log scale for ages!)
 
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 2nd, 2020, 7:53 pm

Eddie Large dying is the Rock Hudson moment. The first proper celeb. (But that might just be me. I'm not as sophisticated as the rest of you.)
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 2nd, 2020, 8:30 pm

I don't expect it to make that much difference. We have honest data now from outside China. 

It didn't help matters that the WHO are sucking up to a communist regime, believing any nonsense they are told, and are worrying more about political correctness and not offending dodgy governments than about saving lives. Not surprising though since they are part of the now useless UN.

A lot of people and institutions are coming out of this badly:

China

WHO

Some police

Some politicians, although surprisingly few

Many commentators (the "gotcha" theme continues)

And eventually some mathematicians will be criticized, but that might have to wait until the dust settles.
The editor of The Lancet is doing particularly badly. I didn't realise one person could be so wrong about everything
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 3rd, 2020, 5:48 pm

It's good to see a respectable organization telling us how it is in China. That wouldn't, BTW, be the Chinese authorities, or the WHO, or the FT, etc. But the CIA.

A) I hope Imperial College haven't been relying on the Chinese data. 

B) If China doesn't even know the numbers is that good or bad for death rate?

C) What will happen in China? Will it get totally out of control because everyone is afraid of the authorities? Or will those authorities get it under control by throwing everyone who coughs into a large pit?

D) Chinese economy? Chinese manufacture of cheap tat? And other stuff?

E) Chinese travel to the RoW?

F) Will Western universities collapse having no Chinese students? Or will everything go online? Even easier for cheating, they'll like that.

And so on.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 3rd, 2020, 7:41 pm

Online + Skype interrogation. We have a system for this.

Mind the blood pressure..
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Paul
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 3rd, 2020, 8:23 pm

[1970s joke deleted]
 
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 3rd, 2020, 8:35 pm

Experts and Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate - Washington Post April 2

mentions a number of models being considered - 

"...The coordinator of Trump’s coronavirus task force, Deborah Birx, then projected a slide with a high-arcing mountain showing the worst-case scenario: 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths if Americans and the government did absolutely nothing to stop the virus. And a smaller — but still imposing — hill with 100,000 to 240,000 deaths if measures such as social distancing are taken.
Birx said the projection was based on five or six modelers, including from Imperial College in Britain and Harvard, Columbia and Northeastern universities. “It was their models that created the ability to see what these mitigations could do, how steeply they could depress the curve,” Birx said.
But two models appeared to have been particularly influential: the one by Imperial College and one from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME)."
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

April 3rd, 2020, 9:00 pm

Last edited by Cuchulainn on April 3rd, 2020, 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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