SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

Paul
Posts: 10789
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Yes, it is just the very first model one sees in math biol. It’s like running the world economy with only compound interest as the model.

katastrofa
Posts: 9335
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

There’s an accompanying pandemics of implementing classic epidemiological models

trackstar
Posts: 27426
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.”

― Confucius

but also:

“Today the network of relationships linking the human race to itself and to the rest of the biosphere is so complex that all aspects affect all others to an extraordinary degree. Someone should be studying the whole system, however crudely that has to be done, because no gluing together of partial studies of a complex nonlinear system can give a good idea of the behavior of the whole. ”

― Murray Gell-Mann

Cuchulainn
Posts: 62410
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Quod A Rant Demonstrandum
Caesar ad sum jam forti sed Brutis passus sum.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 62410
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

There’s an accompanying pandemics of implementing classic epidemiological models
You can blame

$du {/dt} = - u$ and the wide availability of Python libraries.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 62410
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

“Today the network of relationships linking the human race to itself and to the rest of the biosphere is so complex that all aspects affect all others to an extraordinary degree. "

Can't say I am having these issues at the moment.

trackstar
Posts: 27426
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

“Today the network of relationships linking the human race to itself and to the rest of the biosphere is so complex that all aspects affect all others to an extraordinary degree. "

Can't say I am having these issues at the moment.
You are tucked away safely at home and this Forum is not too complicated for you.

But you could always join FaceBook! : D

katastrofa
Posts: 9335
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

That's what science was about before Kant. Now one needs to be careful not to phrase research proposals in the second way, because the funding organisation will question their competences in most subjects - you can't implement a credible SIR model if you're not an epidemiologist. I think the lack of transparency and free access to research are partly responsible for the situation (and vice versa). On the other hand, with so many ignorant ideas published by external scientist, I'm not surprised the domain experts are getting annoyed.

katastrofa
Posts: 9335
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Quod A Rant Demonstrandum
Caesar ad sum jam forti sed Brutis passus sum.
possum sum.

Last edited by katastrofa on April 15th, 2020, 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

trackstar
Posts: 27426
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

That's what science was about before Kant. Now one needs to be careful not to phrase research proposals in the second way, because the funding organisation will question their competences in most subjects - you can't implement a credible SIR model if you're not an epidemiologist. I think the lack of transparency and free access to research are partly responsible for the situation (and vice versa). On the other hand, with so many ignorant ideas published by external scientist, I'm not surprised the domain experts are getting annoyed.
I just winnow through various sources and when I find something interesting, or even something rather basic but with good links, I post it here.

Actual utility (or lack thereof) TBD.

I am not arrogant or boa-constricted by my own genius, because I don't have a PhD in a quantitative discipline. : )

I take a broad view on what is {interesting, useful, politically necessary for obvious reasons (and perhaps should not be condemned outright), and the thirteen other ways of looking at the Black Plague, a la William Carlos Williams, or like the Chinese enumeration of animals a la Borges} because I am an anthropologist. All human "stuff" is intriguing to me.

On FB - Cuch - for you it might be like a never-ending Dutch birthday party, with a different cast of characters coming and going every day.

What "fun"!

katastrofa
Posts: 9335
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

You're an anthropologist? Fascinating field of study! Did you specialise in some specific subject?
A book you may like (the story of human kind emerging from the combined anthropological, genetic and archaeological evidence).

Cuchulainn
Posts: 62410
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

On FB - Cuch - for you it might be like a never-ending Dutch birthday party, with a different cast of characters coming and going every day.
I joined FB a long way back. As "Dan Duff", educated at Stanford and working at McDonalds. Two days later I got an invite from Aaron Brown and my ex-wile!

Obviously, I deleted my account.

Paul
Posts: 10789
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

When I stop looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/ every few hours that will be either a good sign, or a very, very bad sign.
Turned out to be a very, very bad sign.

Paul
Posts: 10789
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

No North Korea, no Turkey. Yeah, right.
Turkey's death numbers are interesting. It's almost as if Bernie Madoff were making them up.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 62410
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Yes, it is just the very first model one sees in math biol. It’s like running the world economy with only compound interest as the model.
Well, the world - until recent;y - ran very well using just compound interest.