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katastrofa
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Re: Stupid question of the day

November 18th, 2018, 1:47 am

Thanks Bearish! I also though emerald jewellery would suit it.

Paul, it's not a sense of humour, but a passive-aggressive reaction to being forced to participate in social life. Wearing something quirky is my way of saving my soul :-)

Last year I went to a party, which had a theme - something about space travel (they opened it with a nice show to Bowie's Space Oddity). The invitation required some metallic garments. I just painted my nails with metallic polish and grabbed a pair of golden stilettos, but many people came in metallic suits and dresses. They looked like turkeys at the Thanksgiving party - wrapped in aluminium foil to be put in the oven. One kindred spirit decorated his huge beard with Christmas tree bombs. Besides, those parties are usually so crowded that it's hard to hear what people say to you, not to mention watching their clothes: "What's your name?" - I tell them my (Hungarian) name, "What?!" - "Bob! I'm Bob!" (Blackadder Goes Forth).
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Stupid question of the day

November 19th, 2018, 5:50 pm

Do you really think that Greek columns and fruit baskets are beautiful on a modern, steel office building?
 
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katastrofa
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Re: Stupid question of the day

November 20th, 2018, 12:49 am

I agree those should be Roman columns with fruit baskets.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: Stupid question of the day

November 24th, 2018, 2:21 am

Quantum Bayesian <buzzword> ... neural networks

What do you think will be the next buzzwords?

vegan cruelty-free biodynamic Demeter-quality palm oil-free neural networks
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Stupid question of the day

December 9th, 2018, 1:08 pm

What's up with the yield curve at the moment? is it a leading indicator..
 
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ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Stupid question of the day

December 9th, 2018, 2:01 pm

the yield spread between 03- and 05-year treasuries dropped below zero earlier this week

An inverted yield curve has preceded all recessions (9 of them) since 1955
But there's the old joke about predicting 15 of  the last 9 recessiions

The Fed has raised rates too fast too soon. It's almost as if they want to cause a recession to increase the odds the president does not get reelected
 
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bearish
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Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Stupid question of the day

December 9th, 2018, 3:25 pm

It depends to some extent on what curve you look at and what part of it. There is an insatiable LDI demand for long duration with little credit risk, especially from life insurers, bidding down long rates. Some of this demand is not matched by cash on hand to make investments and is instead satisfied by receiving on swaps, which it the most plausible story for the persistently negative 30-year swap spread, making the swap curve even flatter than the Treasury curve. Strictly speaking, much of this demand should be for long real rates, but as long as the Fed remains credible inflation doesn't seem to be of first order concern to investors. The inflation swap curve is nearly flat at 2%, which is probably not coincidentally the Fed target. On the short end there has been some real action. The most extreme is the Sep-20 Eurodollar futures contract, which moved 50 bps over the last month, essentially taking out two rate hikes that had been baked in. This feels like an over-reaction to me, given record low unemployment and abnormally low interest rates overall. It seems to have been driven by expectations that the Fed will bail out the stock market if need be (the Powell put), which has tanked recently because of inept trade policy.
 
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ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Stupid question of the day

December 9th, 2018, 5:25 pm

the stock market has tanked because investors have been spooked by the Fed's overagressive rate hikes
 
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bearish
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Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Stupid question of the day

December 9th, 2018, 6:44 pm

Logic can often be reversed, but the effect does not precede the cause. -Gregory Bateson
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