In my experience, whenever a female friend has returned an unwashed shirt borrowed for some reason, the shirt always seems basically clean, even if returned with apologies that it was profusely sweated in.

Now when I wear a shirt for a day, it's dirty.

And if I loan a shirt to a man, I'm basically loath to touch it at all before getting it into the wash. And the thought of just throwing it away is never far from mind.

Because I know how ripe I get, but at least it's MY ripeness.

Could AI ever predict "Black Swan" events? 

Did you know that two or more black swans together on land or in the water can be properly referred to as a bank?

I didn't know that. I only know that money doesn't grow on trees. 
I would expect an opportunity for Mr. Taleb to give interesting insights,

The CEO of market leader in stress testing was interviewed on CNN. She said the tests did not include ALL scenarios. e.g. Inflation, interest rates.

Back in 2008 it was similar? I sold in 2006..
I read that book on Jon Paulson. Riveting.

Are those black swans tail event or something out of distribution? Not that I follow the frequentist picture.

My feeling was that now is the opposite of 2008. Nevermind...

Are those black swans tail event or something out of distribution? Not that I follow the frequentist picture.

My feeling was that now is the opposite of 2008. Nevermind...

Probably neither. It is deterministic, like hyperbolic PDE. Starts smooth and at some time develops shocks.

2008 .. all about cash flow drying up.

Thats why I thought this could be conveniently described by the Landau order parameter formalism (not that I'm biased coming from Easter European solid state physics science ). The order parameter could be some preference of an individual in the system, e.g. bullshit or beardom sentiment. But such systems are driven - in or out of the equilibrium - by some "external" parameters, e.g. some news to which the individuals can react in different ways (I guess things got more unstable since Twitter). What I'm wondering about is whether the (non)homogeneity of this response is described by some distribution (Gaussian, Levy, etc.) including the reptilian outliers, or is it something completely different?

BTW, the reality repainted black swans as common martins, it seems.
Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975) clip 1 An African or European swallow - YouTube

Could AI ever predict "Black Swan" events? 

I bet it could precipitate them, and probably will.

There's a new branch of mathematics waiting to be born - information theory including fake news, lies, trumps, russian green men and maskirovka...

There's a new branch of mathematics waiting to be born - information theory including fake news, lies, trumps, russian green men and maskirovka...

Ellsberg Paradox ?

Or asymmetric gain-loss function. Try to kick someone and then be nice to them, or in the opposite order. Anyway, they won't like you anymore. Huh?

is it possible to externalise a monologue interior?

is it just an (illocutionary) speech act?

Does ChatGPT understand this kind of stuff?

Like when you're watching the water swirling down the loo and think: 'riverrun, past Eve and Adam's, from swerve of shore to bend of bay, brings us by a commodious vicus of recirculation back to Howth Castle and Environs.”?

Like when you're watching the water swirling down the loo and think: 'riverrun, past Eve and Adam's, from swerve of shore to bend of bay, brings us by a commodious vicus of recirculation back to Howth Castle and Environs.”?

clockwise or anti-clockwise?

In Ulysses, there is a similar episode
He kicked open the crazy door of the jakes. Better be careful not to get these trousers dirty for the funeral. He went in, bowing his head under the low lintel. Leaving the door ajar, amid the stench of mouldy limewash and stale cobwebs he undid his braces. Before sitting down he peered through a chink up at the nextdoor windows. The king was in his countinghouse. Nobody.
[justify]Asquat on the cuckstool he folded out his paper, turning its pages over on his bared knees. Something new and easy. No great hurry. Keep it a bit. Our prize titbit: Matcham’s Masterstroke. Written by Mr Philip Beaufoy, Playgoers’ Club, London. Payment at the rate of one guinea a column has been made to the writer. Three and a half. Three pounds three. Three pounds, thirteen and six.[/justify]
Quietly he read, restraining himself, the first column and, yielding but resisting, began the second. Midway, his last resistance yielding, he allowed his bowels to ease themselves quietly as he read, reading still patiently that slight constipation of yesterday quite gone. Hope it’s not too big bring on piles again. No, just right. So. Ah! Costive. One tabloid of cascara sagrada. Life might be so. It did not move or touch him but it was something quick and neat. Print anything now. Silly season. He read on, seated calm above his own rising smell. Neat certainly. Matcham often thinks of the masterstroke by which he won the laughing witch who now. Begins and ends morally. Hand in hand. Smart. He glanced back through what he had read and, while feeling his water flow quietly, he envied kindly Mr Beaufoy who had written it and received payment of three pounds, thirteen and six.

Anyone interested in working with me on tagGPT, the ultimate AI for good aka French humour?