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Cuchulainn
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 2:43 pm

Quote And maybe Germans will get disgusted with the "lazy" members of the EU, use their resources to ring-fence German banks, and let the rest of the EU collapse.It's nothing to do with laziness. It was cheap lending. The work week in Greece is 41 hours, while in north EU it's 30. Germany and Holland, for example have gained *enormously* from the Euro.The image lazy/non-lazy discussion is bunkum. The crisis is much deeper and subtle than what the popular media would lead us to believe.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 20th, 2011, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Errrb
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:06 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn The crisis is much deeper and subtle than what the popular media would lead us to believe.I don't really understand what so subtle can be about this. Are you saying PIGS are dumber than germans and can not do math correctly to figure out how much they can spend and how much they will be able to repay? If somebody borrowed money he has to pay it back, unless he wants to find himself in a situation where nobody will ever lend him money. Looks pretty simple to me.
 
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CrashedMint
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:25 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ErrrbLooks pretty simple to me.I'm not trying to be funny here, but I learned the hard way that a lot of people simply can't understand even the most simple things. I'm not sure why that is, but time and time again I am completely amazed at the level of stupidity that is commonplace. I used to think that people would just not care or willfully try to mess up things, but I am more and more leaning towards thinking that it's just impossible for some people to understand simple things.I think that a lot of people in Greece simply don't understand the consequence of an actual default. I am still wondering what happens if the U.S. goes bankrupt or what happens to the rest of the eurozone when greece goes bankrupt, but with respect to Greece itself it should be pretty clear that any kind of default, or partial default, or remission or creative debt restructuring etc. would lead to people never trusting Greece ever again.
 
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frenchX
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:27 pm

Russia defaulted in 1998 but the Russian economy is not so bad nowadays ... Even if it's ranked C if I remember well.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:32 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ErrrbQuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn The crisis is much deeper and subtle than what the popular media would lead us to believe.I don't really understand what so subtle can be about this. Are you saying PIGS are dumber than germans and can not do math correctly to figure out how much they can spend and how much they will be able to repay? If somebody borrowed money he has to pay it back, unless he wants to find himself in a situation where nobody will ever lend him money. Looks pretty simple to me.Glad you see it in black and white. At least there is one person who understands what's going on
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zerdna
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:33 pm

Greek debt to GDP is almost double of that of Germany. Rogoff and Reinhart estimated that Greece has been in the state of default 50% of time since it's independence, more than any other european country. If there are some deep and subtle reasons, i guess someone needs to open our eyes on these subtleties. People tend to over consume when someone else is paying -- the list of examples of this behavior is endless. To me it's not subtle, maybe it is for someone else.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:36 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaGreek debt to GDP is almost double of that of Germany. Rogoff and Reinhart estimated that Greece has been in the state of default 50% of time since it's independence, more than any other european country. If there are some deep and subtle reasons, i guess someone needs to open our eyes on these subtleties. People tend to over consume when someone else is paying -- the list of examples of this behavior is endless. To me it's not subtle, maybe it is for someone else.What happened to 'due diligence'? In the old days if you wanted to borrow you had to prove you *did not* need the money...
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 20th, 2011, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Errrb
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:38 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn QuoteOriginally posted by: ErrrbQuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn The crisis is much deeper and subtle than what the popular media would lead us to believe.I don't really understand what so subtle can be about this. Are you saying PIGS are dumber than germans and can not do math correctly to figure out how much they can spend and how much they will be able to repay? If somebody borrowed money he has to pay it back, unless he wants to find himself in a situation where nobody will ever lend him money. Looks pretty simple to me.Glad you see it in black and white. At least there is one person who understands what's going onIt is black and white in a sense that there is a clear causal relation between action and consequences. Let's say you have 2 twin brothers for the sake of argument. One of them is computer programmer, who works long hours making an OK living and finds happiness in simple things. The other brother is a DJ in a local whorehouse, who deals drugs, takes big credit from bad ass guys to buy coke and fuck hookers. They both do what makes them happy (the right choice for each of them is not black and white), but the predictable outcome of their trajectories to happiness most likely will be very different.
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Traden4Alpha
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:46 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuote And maybe Germans will get disgusted with the "lazy" members of the EU, use their resources to ring-fence German banks, and let the rest of the EU collapse.It's nothing to do with laziness. It was cheap lending. The work week in Greece is 41 hours, while in north EU it's 30. But do Greek workers accomplish as much in 41 hours as German workers accomplish in 30? Perhaps "laziness" is the wrong word and I apologize for that. Perhaps the problem is low worker productivity and high pension profligacy (in terms of generous retirement age and wage fractions for Greek pensions).QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnGermany and Holland, for example have gained *enormously* from the Euro.Absolutely! Bigger markets and a weaker currency (relative to the Mark) have let the Northern European economies produce and export like gangbusters. But if those gains were funded by non-unsustainable borrow-and-spend government policies by Southern EU countries, then future gains won't be so enormous.QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnThe crisis is much deeper and subtle than what the popular media would lead us to believe.Yes, I agree. Too much of the prosperity created in the EU (and US) was created by taking on debts that will be very hard to repay. We have quite literally borrowed too much of our future wealth for a big bubbly fling and now we've reached the point of economic hangover (with some countries falling off their stools sooner than others). EU (and US) deficit spending was a keg of Kwak and you know where that leads.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:54 pm

QuoteBut do Greek workers accomplish as much in 41 hours as German workers accomplish in 30? Can't speak for Germany.I live in an area that exports 80% of the world's tulips, tomatoes etc. and is highly automated industry. Employers cannot find 'local' workers as they consider it to be too menial. So, many workers are employed from other EU countries.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 20th, 2011, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Traden4Alpha
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:55 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaGreek debt to GDP is almost double of that of Germany. Rogoff and Reinhart estimated that Greece has been in the state of default 50% of time since it's independence, more than any other european country. If there are some deep and subtle reasons, i guess someone needs to open our eyes on these subtleties. People tend to over consume when someone else is paying -- the list of examples of this behavior is endless. To me it's not subtle, maybe it is for someone else.What happened to 'due diligence'? In the old days if you wanted to borrow you had to prove you *did not* need the money...'Due diligence' was outlawed to support social policy. Making people prove they can repay favors the rich.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 3:59 pm

QuoteMaking people prove they can repay favors the rich.Really? I thought it meant 'not living above your means'.
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Powerpuff
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 4:10 pm

Of course the problem is about dept, but maybe there is one more element to it? A sort of EU trilemma?Dani Rodrik's weblog -The inescapable trilemma of the world economyIt seems the creators of the eurozone wanted the advantages of being a large trading bloc, without accepting the major political integration that is required to make such a system system work. The eurozone is IMO far from being an optimal currency area. Some people say it was hoped that the creation of the euro itself would lead to the necessary political integration and fiscal co-operation. I have no idea if that was a reasonable notion, but I do believe that the union expanded to fast. There are now numerous countries with very different economic conditions sharing one currency, how could that be a good idea?I am not sure, but it seems that Greece has already defaulted for all practical purposes; it just isn't official yet. Perhaps the EU leaders want to give the other European banks time to prepare, or wait for a nice streak of economic growth to dampen the effect of a default? I don't have a clue! But I do believe that the crisis could be resolved if there was political will to do so, and then what? The eurozone would still be a bunch of very different countries with a keen sense of nationality sharing a common currency ? which is not such a great idea (IMO). When joining the eurozone all members kind of gave up a useful economic tool.Or maybe I am all lost
 
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frenchX
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 4:25 pm

It's more than a "not a good idea" it's a "fucking bad idea made by retarded guys who believed that German economy is the same than greek one or Lituanian one.." Eurozone and how it was defined was a STUPID idea .
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trackstar
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 21st, 2011, 4:42 pm

Obviously the pace of integration accelerated rapidly in recent years, but if you consider the iterations and passage of time since the European Coal and Steel Community, it has been a pretty long road.
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