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Anthis
Posts: 4313
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

FYI, the issue of obligatory loans is independent of war reparations and Marshal plan. Reparations are about destructions, looting, loss of lives, famine, mass executions etc. If memory helps the issue of reparations closed in early 60s. During 1943 the Germans got a loan of 3.5 billion USD from the bank of Greece. Obviously the lender had no discretion on the process. Hence the elegant term "obligatory". Probably there were similar loans in other occupied countries. They paid back the first installment during 1944, an event that legally denotes recognition of debt. Then liberation came, and since then this loan is delinquent. Its said that even today the central banks of those countries keep the debits and credits of this loan in their books. All attempts to settle this issue till the 90s were met with the excuse there are two Germanies, then hold on we need to unify and integrate the eastern Germany, and after 2000 the excuse was, we are in eurozone now, these are too old stories...Bottom line, assuming that at the end of 1944 the loan balance was 3 billion USD, and an average rate of 8%, in line with historic US treasury yields for long term bonds, then this liability today should be valued at 520 bil USD. Much more than the Greek public debt currently. Consequently, for as long as this issue remains unsettled, either by a bilateral agreement between the two countries or by a decision of international courts, it is questionable who bails out whom and people who so easily say aphorisms should have been more careful and better informed, and not fall victims of "psychologic operations" from mass media.

farmer
Posts: 13462
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisDuring 1943 the Germans got a loan of 3.5 billion USD from the bank of Greece.The Bank of Greece had $3.5 billion in US currency in 1943? zerdna Posts: 3856 Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am ### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies? QuoteBottom line, assuming that at the end of 1944 the loan balance was 3 billion USD, and an average rate of 8% in line with historic US treasury yields for long term bonds, then this liability today should be valued at 520 bil USDA lot of stupid things one can do with compounded interest. The article said assume 4% which gets you$40B. You went further a bit with 8% and got $520B. You know, when Greeks were burning Troy in 1300 BC, one Greek said to one Troyan while looting his house -- "let me borrow this one dinar from you". Let's assume it was a loan worth one cent and to be generous, just 3% interest. Whoops i got$2*10^28 trillion dollars -- about 10^26 more than all assets on earth are worth. Is Greece going to get this back to Turkey now?

Anthis
Posts: 4313
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

When the US treasury yields in the 10-30Y band were 4%? Yes, I know compounding over long periods can give a wide variance of outcomes depending on the rate you use, its not rocket science, but I just used an indicative rate, without factoring in any delinquency surcharges as any good lender would do... As for your funny Troy example, do you know what has happened with the debts of Czaric Russia after the collapse of Soviet Union?

zerdna
Posts: 3856
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

Anthis, honestly, i didn't know about "loans" from Greece. I suspect money was simply looted from Greece, without any desire of Greece to make this "loan" or any loan documentation spelling out the recourse on this loan. At the same time Germans killed a lot of Greeks, my example meant to illustrate as well the silliness of calling looting a loan -- it's a different kind of deal. Germans killed many more Slavs and Jews and looted even more from them. If you start calling all what Germans did "debt" it is not settled, it will never be. My only point was, Germany didn't get better off in the process. That stuff is not the reason Germany is rich and German engineers are paid better that Greek engineers, which was the question you asked.

daveangel
Posts: 17031
Joined: October 20th, 2003, 4:05 pm

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

You couldn't make this up - thank you Mr Draghi
knowledge comes, wisdom lingers

trackstar
Posts: 26875
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelYou couldn't make this up - thank you Mr DraghiAh, regret.You should have bought a Greek island (with villa), when you had a chance.
Last edited by trackstar on April 9th, 2014, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 60753
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelYou couldn't make this up - thank you Mr DraghiAh, regret.You should have bought a Greek island (with villa), when you had a chance. It will cost > 200K to fix the pier, for starters. And the septic tank is another issue. The pipe has to go 3 kilometre out sea. Then apply for the hotel license.good luck.
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trackstar
Posts: 26875
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnIt will cost > 200K to fix the pier, for starters. And the septic tank is another issue. The pipe has to go 3 kilometre out sea. Then apply for the hotel license.good luck.200K - Dollars or Euros?Anthis may have some cousins who work in the trades; I'd get quotes from them first.No hotel license required - this would be a private villa and host of the Annual Wilmott QF Conference.

Cuchulainn
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### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnIt will cost > 200K to fix the pier, for starters. And the septic tank is another issue. The pipe has to go 3 kilometre out sea. Then apply for the hotel license.good luck.200K - Dollars or Euros?Anthis may have some cousins who work in the trades; I'd get quotes from them first.No hotel license required - this would be a private villa and host of the Annual Wilmott QF Conference.Doesn't matter, a pipe is still needed.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik

trackstar
Posts: 26875
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnIt will cost > 200K to fix the pier, for starters. And the septic tank is another issue. The pipe has to go 3 kilometre out sea. Then apply for the hotel license.good luck.200K - Dollars or Euros?Anthis may have some cousins who work in the trades; I'd get quotes from them first.No hotel license required - this would be a private villa and host of the Annual Wilmott QF Conference.Doesn't matter, a pipe is still needed.No dispute there!

Cuchulainn
Posts: 60753
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnIt will cost > 200K to fix the pier, for starters. And the septic tank is another issue. The pipe has to go 3 kilometre out sea. Then apply for the hotel license.good luck.200K - Dollars or Euros?Anthis may have some cousins who work in the trades; I'd get quotes from them first.No hotel license required - this would be a private villa and host of the Annual Wilmott QF Conference.Doesn't matter, a pipe is still needed.No dispute there!In that case the builders will do the pier for 200K in any denomination.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik