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Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 6:18 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ErrrbQuoteOriginally posted by: Fermion QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaGreek debt to GDP is almost double of that of Germany. Rogoff and Reinhart estimated that Greece has been in the state of default 50% of time since it's independence, more than any other european country. If there are some deep and subtle reasons, i guess someone needs to open our eyes on these subtleties. People tend to over consume when someone else is paying -- the list of examples of this behavior is endless. To me it's not subtle, maybe it is for someone else.What happened to 'due diligence'? In the old days if you wanted to borrow you had to prove you *did not* need the money...Due dilligence? When the borrowed funds were translated to contracts (infrastructure, guns, technology, whatever) for big German and French firms, why they should care? Their horizon ends at the next yearly book closure... Indeed! Everyone had a turn at the punchbowl.Where were the prudent voters arguing that it was unsustainable? Doesn't due diligence ultimately rest on the citizen's shoulders because they are the ones that pay for it all in the end.It rests on them being adequately and accurately informed. Murdoch, among others, prevented that.It never ceases to fascinate me what kind of muddy shit you have in your head, mr. Fermion. How for fuck sake Murdoch is responsible for all of this?Good point, Errrb! Murdoch's a minority is a sea of liberal "lame-stream media" -- the same media that think government can be a bottomless font of entitlement spending.No one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.
 
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Fermion
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 6:25 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ErrrbQuoteOriginally posted by: Fermion QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaGreek debt to GDP is almost double of that of Germany. Rogoff and Reinhart estimated that Greece has been in the state of default 50% of time since it's independence, more than any other european country. If there are some deep and subtle reasons, i guess someone needs to open our eyes on these subtleties. People tend to over consume when someone else is paying -- the list of examples of this behavior is endless. To me it's not subtle, maybe it is for someone else.What happened to 'due diligence'? In the old days if you wanted to borrow you had to prove you *did not* need the money...Due dilligence? When the borrowed funds were translated to contracts (infrastructure, guns, technology, whatever) for big German and French firms, why they should care? Their horizon ends at the next yearly book closure... Indeed! Everyone had a turn at the punchbowl.Where were the prudent voters arguing that it was unsustainable? Doesn't due diligence ultimately rest on the citizen's shoulders because they are the ones that pay for it all in the end.It rests on them being adequately and accurately informed. Murdoch, among others, prevented that.It never ceases to fascinate me what kind of muddy shit you have in your head, mr. Fermion. How for fuck sake Murdoch is responsible for all of this?Murdoch and others. By quasi-monopolistic control of media, lying to the population and corrupting government in most of the most economically developed countries by demanding politicians obey his will or he'll tear them to pieces in his media. Capitalism loved him for it.My only question about US default is whether this marks the end of capitalism. I live in hope.
 
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Fermion
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 6:28 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: ErrrbQuoteOriginally posted by: Fermion QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaGreek debt to GDP is almost double of that of Germany. Rogoff and Reinhart estimated that Greece has been in the state of default 50% of time since it's independence, more than any other european country. If there are some deep and subtle reasons, i guess someone needs to open our eyes on these subtleties. People tend to over consume when someone else is paying -- the list of examples of this behavior is endless. To me it's not subtle, maybe it is for someone else.What happened to 'due diligence'? In the old days if you wanted to borrow you had to prove you *did not* need the money...Due dilligence? When the borrowed funds were translated to contracts (infrastructure, guns, technology, whatever) for big German and French firms, why they should care? Their horizon ends at the next yearly book closure... Indeed! Everyone had a turn at the punchbowl.Where were the prudent voters arguing that it was unsustainable? Doesn't due diligence ultimately rest on the citizen's shoulders because they are the ones that pay for it all in the end.It rests on them being adequately and accurately informed. Murdoch, among others, prevented that.It never ceases to fascinate me what kind of muddy shit you have in your head, mr. Fermion. How for fuck sake Murdoch is responsible for all of this?Good point, Errrb! Murdoch's a minority is a sea of liberal "lame-stream media" -- the same media that think government can be a bottomless font of entitlement spending.No one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 6:52 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaNo one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.Aren't you an entrepreneur? Creating a business case for "informed rational comment" should be easy if people really wanted it. Are there no examples of "informed rational comment" on the internet, news stands, or bookshelves to show that customers want what you have to sell?If you had evidence (or believed) that what you say is true, you would risk your labor (and capital) to create the business case, attract investors, and create your own media empire.
 
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Fermion
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 7:06 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaNo one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.Aren't you an entrepreneur? Creating a business case for "informed rational comment" should be easy if people really wanted it. Are there no examples of "informed rational comment" on the internet, news stands, or bookshelves to show that customers want what you have to sell?If you had evidence (or believed) that what you say is true, you would risk your labor (and capital) to create the business case, attract investors, and create your own media empire.Who's going to invest in honesty when they can get a better return by investing in lies?
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 7:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaNo one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.Aren't you an entrepreneur? Creating a business case for "informed rational comment" should be easy if people really wanted it. Are there no examples of "informed rational comment" on the internet, news stands, or bookshelves to show that customers want what you have to sell?If you had evidence (or believed) that what you say is true, you would risk your labor (and capital) to create the business case, attract investors, and create your own media empire.Who's going to invest in honesty when they can get a better return by investing in lies?It seems that people who invest in lies (including consumers and voters) are getting the returns they deserve, then.
Last edited by Traden4Alpha on July 21st, 2011, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Fermion
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 7:59 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaNo one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.Aren't you an entrepreneur? Creating a business case for "informed rational comment" should be easy if people really wanted it. Are there no examples of "informed rational comment" on the internet, news stands, or bookshelves to show that customers want what you have to sell?If you had evidence (or believed) that what you say is true, you would risk your labor (and capital) to create the business case, attract investors, and create your own media empire.Who's going to invest in honesty when they can get a better return by investing in lies?It seems that people who invest in lies (including consumers and voters) are getting the return they deserve, then.How conveniently you ignore the asymmetry between capital and consumers. You love confusing the tail with the dog don't you? In case you hadn't noticed, a dog is not all tail.
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 8:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaNo one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.Aren't you an entrepreneur? Creating a business case for "informed rational comment" should be easy if people really wanted it. Are there no examples of "informed rational comment" on the internet, news stands, or bookshelves to show that customers want what you have to sell?If you had evidence (or believed) that what you say is true, you would risk your labor (and capital) to create the business case, attract investors, and create your own media empire.Who's going to invest in honesty when they can get a better return by investing in lies?It seems that people who invest in lies (including consumers and voters) are getting the return they deserve, then.How conveniently you ignore the asymmetry between capital and consumers. You love confusing the tail with the dog don't you? In case you hadn't noticed, a dog is not all tail.Indeed! Capital is at the mercy of consumers. With the exception of utilities and government, consumers can choose what to buy, how much to buy, and from whom to buy (and with emigration, they can even pick the government & the utilities).
 
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Fermion
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 8:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaNo one is stopping Fermion from publishing the Communitarian Picayune except the fact that no one is willing to pay for the ideological drivel.Finance its publication, including paying me for my time, and I'll prove to you that people would lap up informed rational comment if it were available.Aren't you an entrepreneur? Creating a business case for "informed rational comment" should be easy if people really wanted it. Are there no examples of "informed rational comment" on the internet, news stands, or bookshelves to show that customers want what you have to sell?If you had evidence (or believed) that what you say is true, you would risk your labor (and capital) to create the business case, attract investors, and create your own media empire.Who's going to invest in honesty when they can get a better return by investing in lies?It seems that people who invest in lies (including consumers and voters) are getting the return they deserve, then.How conveniently you ignore the asymmetry between capital and consumers. You love confusing the tail with the dog don't you? In case you hadn't noticed, a dog is not all tail.Indeed! Capital is at the mercy of consumers. With the exception of utilities and government, consumers can choose what to buy, how much to buy, and from whom to buy (and with emigration, they can even pick the government & the utilities).Oh what wonderful choices people have when a bunch of capitalists control the media, industry, politicians and government!If you point a gun at me I suppose I have the choice whether to duck or not. And if you miss with your first shot, then I have to buy the bullet for your next shot? Or have you never heard of TARP and other tax-payer subsidies of capitalism?
Last edited by Fermion on July 21st, 2011, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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exCBOE
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 8:27 pm

As an oldie but newbie, I am having a hard time understanding the argument, guys. Granted it is amusing when you take clever potshots at each other.Anyway, as to Greece. Do ya think it might have something to do with the fact that there are no Greek children? Who is going to pick up the tab for the 50 something retirees? There are damn few German children too.
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 10:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEAs an oldie but newbie, I am having a hard time understanding the argument, guys. Granted it is amusing when you take clever potshots at each other.Anyway, as to Greece. Do ya think it might have something to do with the fact that there are no Greek children? Who is going to pick up the tab for the 50 something retirees? There are damn few German children too.Sorry to wander off into clever potshots.Yes, the demographics aren't good, nor is the economy's productivity growth. There's a general sense that once a country exceeds government debt over 100% of GDP, that growth will be much harder. Given Greece's inability to adjust it's currency to match it's debt-stifled economy, it will slip farther and farther behind. And if it's going to slip, then creditors want higher rates which are even harder to repay....If' Greek borrowing were going to create new Greek assets that could earn an economic return, then it wouldn't be so bad. But if the additional debt is merely to repay prior debt or prior liabilities (e.g. pensions), then it's an unsustainable Ponzi scheme.
 
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Fermion
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 22nd, 2011, 10:24 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEAs an oldie but newbie, I am having a hard time understanding the argument, guys. Granted it is amusing when you take clever potshots at each other.Anyway, as to Greece. Do ya think it might have something to do with the fact that there are no Greek children? Who is going to pick up the tab for the 50 something retirees? There are damn few German children too.Sorry to wander off into clever potshots.Yes, the demographics aren't good, nor is the economy's productivity growth. There's a general sense that once a country exceeds government debt over 100% of GDP, that growth will be much harder. Given Greece's inability to adjust it's currency to match it's debt-stifled economy, it will slip farther and farther behind. And if it's going to slip, then creditors want higher rates which are even harder to repay....If' Greek borrowing were going to create new Greek assets that could earn an economic return, then it wouldn't be so bad. But if the additional debt is merely to repay prior debt or prior liabilities (e.g. pensions), then it's an unsustainable Ponzi scheme.It's interesting how the debt to future pensioners (it represents earlier unpaid wages that were negotiated away in favor of deferred payment in pensions) doesn't count as a debt in your analysis. And as regards Ponzi schemes, are you suggesting that countries should exercise greater fiscal responsibility than the banks they borrow from? Or would you suggest that banks too should be subjected to the same accountability?
Last edited by Fermion on July 22nd, 2011, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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exCBOE
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 23rd, 2011, 2:06 am

At least on the surface it seems awkward to have the debtor (state) regulate the creditor (bank).I feel sorry for the pensioners much as for any victim of a swindle. A lesson that seems never to be learned is that if you don't have control over your own pension funds, then you have accepted something of dubious value (an IOU) in exchange for your labor, such as it is.
 
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Anthis
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Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 23rd, 2011, 7:04 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEAs an oldie but newbie, I am having a hard time understanding the argument, guys. Granted it is amusing when you take clever potshots at each other.Anyway, as to Greece. Do ya think it might have something to do with the fact that there are no Greek children? Who is going to pick up the tab for the 50 something retirees? There are damn few German children too.FYI, the 50something retirees, are people who have done for min 20 years jobs classified as "heavy, hazardous, or unhealthy". People in these jobs have double pension and healthcare contributions withheld from their salaries than the rest, and obviously shorter life expectancies. Another category is working moms above 55, with still underaged children. It was an incentive to improve demographics, but it was abolished on the ground of gender equality. Other than those two categories I am aware of, people on average retire around 65, with minimum 35 years of pension contributions.
 
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Anthis
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Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

July 23rd, 2011, 7:31 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuote And maybe Germans will get disgusted with the "lazy" members of the EU, use their resources to ring-fence German banks, and let the rest of the EU collapse.It's nothing to do with laziness. It was cheap lending. The work week in Greece is 41 hours, while in north EU it's 30. But do Greek workers accomplish as much in 41 hours as German workers accomplish in 30? Perhaps "laziness" is the wrong word and I apologize for that. Perhaps the problem is low worker productivity and high pension profligacy (in terms of generous retirement age and wage fractions for Greek pensions).As an economist living in Greece, I can assure you that this 41 hours week is simply an understatement. Its "greek statistics", just the other side of the coin. Such stats come from hours recorded, reported, and paid out to people with employee status. In private sector people work regularly long unpaid overtime, that are never recorded or reported either, either with legal loopholes, eg christian everyone as some sort of manager, or plain employer extortion. The same is valid for self employed people whose population is disproportionate higher than EU average, farmers, fishermen, people working in seasonal jobs, such as in tourism industry. Furthermore, there are people who do second or third jobs, and due to exclusivity clauses, these jobs must be black, consequently hours worked are neither recorded nor reported anywhere. In summary, having witnessed the aforementioned reality, I wouldnt be surprised if the average week hours were higher than 50.As for lower productivity, when the labour cost is cheap compared to EU average, however you estimate it, there is no short supply of labour, even skilled labour, the employer has little incentive to invest in technology. I ve witnessed this on multiple cases and on multiple aspects. Another issue is the low R&D spending, which is more related to the high number of SME in the economy, and secondary to the risk aversion and risk bearing capacity of entrepreneurs.
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