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Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 8th, 2011, 12:40 pm
by ppauper
The Iowa caucuses are less than 4 weeks away (January 3, 2012).Anyone care to predict the winner (and we'll close entries on Christmas Eve at 1 minute to midnight Iowa time, so there's actually some advance prediction involved)Current Iowa political exchange prices areGingrich 0.705Paul 0.647 Romney 0.300Bachmann 0.071Perry 0.050rest of field 0.040latest CBS/NYT Poll (released Dec 6)Gingrich 31Romney 17Paul 16Perry 11Bachmann 9Santorum 4Hunstmann 1I'll go out on a limb and say I think Gingrich is going to lose support because of all the attacks (from Romney and Pelosi on the left, from Beck and Paul on the right) and the next not-Romney will win Iowa, and that will be Ron Paul (and let's face it, we're all rooting for him because he wants to end the fed)

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 13th, 2011, 7:05 pm
by ppauper
come on, someone take a stab !Surprisingly, Ron Paul is now the favorite over at the Iowa Exchange (current prices)IA_PAUL 0.763 IA_GING 0.723 IA_ROMN 0.080 IA_BACH 0.050 IA_PERR 0.023 IA_CAIN 0.000 IA_ROF 0.015

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 14th, 2011, 2:19 am
by Polter
I think it's too close to call right now.

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 16th, 2011, 1:50 pm
by ppauper
Ron Paul's now got a slightly bigger lead at the political exchange(the contract pays $1 if the candidate gets the first or second most votes at the caucus, $0 else)IA_PAUL 0.783 IA_GING 0.625 IA_ROMN 0.404 IA_BACH 0.062 IA_PERR 0.035 IA_ROF 0.021

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 19th, 2011, 7:45 pm
by CrashedMint
Paul: 22.5Romney: 32.5Gingrich: 12.5Perry: 12.5Bach: 7.5Sant: 7.5Hunt: <5I reserve the right to adjust my prediction before the deadline:Rationale: I think Gingrich will implode before the end of the year. Please move along. After Perry, Cain and Gingrich it's Ron Pauls time in the primary spotlight. At 22.5% he is of course grossly overpriced, especially since last time he got >10 there. Romney got 27, i think he can ad a bit to that. Bachman and the guy that nobody should ever google will get a portion of the crazy vote. Huntsman's problem is that he's a diplomat. It's simply not a job where random BS and trashtalk valued the most. Especially not when you're in Asia. So for him it's hard to appeal to more extreme people.

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 20th, 2011, 8:30 am
by ppauper
per wiki, the 2008 results wereMike Huckabee (34%) (see the We ♥ Huckabee thread)Romney (25%)Fred Thompson (13%)John McCain (13%)Ron Paul (10%)Rudy Giuliani (4%)Duncan Hunter (1%)Paul's been campaigning very aggressively in Iowa and is doing well there, not so well nationwide

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 20th, 2011, 12:20 pm
by CrashedMint
if you think about it, in 2008 GOP candidates looked a lot more mature.

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 20th, 2011, 4:58 pm
by ppauper
QuoteOriginally posted by: CrashedMintif you think about it, in 2008 GOP candidates looked a lot more mature.mccain was what, 137 ?I wish Huckabee had run againAnd we got Romney again

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 20th, 2011, 5:48 pm
by CrashedMint
QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: CrashedMintif you think about it, in 2008 GOP candidates looked a lot more mature.mccain was what, 137 ?I wish Huckabee had run againAnd we got Romney againSure, but compared to 2008 their public demeanor is a lot more extreme. Just look at Romney '08 versus Romney today.

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 20th, 2011, 6:52 pm
by ppauper
QuoteOriginally posted by: CrashedMintQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: CrashedMintif you think about it, in 2008 GOP candidates looked a lot more mature.mccain was what, 137 ?I wish Huckabee had run againAnd we got Romney againSure, but compared to 2008 their public demeanor is a lot more extreme. Just look at Romney '08 versus Romney today.Romney 2008 had some pretty nasty attacks on both Huckabee to his right and McCain

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 20th, 2011, 9:33 pm
by Polter

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 21st, 2011, 9:31 am
by ppauper
QuoteOriginally posted by: Polterhttp://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/iowathanks, so they have Ron Paul winning also, but huge confidence intervals(they predict Ron Paul getting 25.7 but give the range as between 10 and 40 !)they also predict Romney second then Newt 4th behind a rejuvenated PerryPerry 14.1Bachmann 11.2Santorum 8.1that's what 33.4 between them ?one or two of those 3 need to get out to give the 3rd a clear shot

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 24th, 2011, 3:42 pm
by ppauper
Dec 16, we hadQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperRon Paul's now got a slightly bigger lead at the political exchange(the contract pays $1 if the candidate gets the first or second most votes at the caucus, $0 else)IA_PAUL 0.783 IA_GING 0.625 IA_ROMN 0.404 IA_BACH 0.062 IA_PERR 0.035 IA_ROF 0.021as of today (dec 24)IA_PAUL 0.844 IA_ROMN 0.800 IA_GING 0.263 IA_BACH 0.036 IA_PERR 0.025IA_ROF 0.031 so the Gingrich price has collapsed in the last 8 days and Romney's has doubled.

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 26th, 2011, 1:39 pm
by ppauper
even some of the pundits won't stick their neks outHuckabee won IA in 08 and is sitting out this race to make $$$$$$$$$$$$$ working for fox nice weather, Romney wins but foul weather Paul prevails

Hawkeye Cauci Predictions

Posted: December 28th, 2011, 2:42 pm
by ppauper
QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperDec 16, we hadQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperRon Paul's now got a slightly bigger lead at the political exchange(the contract pays $1 if the candidate gets the first or second most votes at the caucus, $0 else)IA_PAUL 0.783 IA_GING 0.625 IA_ROMN 0.404 IA_BACH 0.062 IA_PERR 0.035 IA_ROF 0.021as of today (dec 24)IA_PAUL 0.844 IA_ROMN 0.800 IA_GING 0.263 IA_BACH 0.036 IA_PERR 0.025IA_ROF 0.031 so the Gingrich price has collapsed in the last 8 days and Romney's has doubled.dec 28Gingrich has dropped yet more:IA_PAUL 0.860 IA_ROMN 0.850 IA_GING 0.110IA_ROF 0.061IA_PERR 0.040IA_BACH 0.021ROF being Santorum ? or Huntsman ?