I am a little puzzled. Normally when polls look like this, intrade shows around 55-45, not 69-31. For example, I think I remember Bush polling ahead four or five points, and trading 58-42.Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5Rasmussen Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 1500 LV 3.0 45 47 Romney +2Gallup Tracking 9/11 - 9/17 3050 RV 2.0 47 46 Obama +1If I were Gallup, I would get on those intrade message boards, and offer one of those geniuses $30k a year to explain how to sample correctly. If there is really a good reason to second-guess a poll to that extent, then polls need some kind of improvement.The registered versus likely voters looks plausible. O+1 in registered, O+.5 in likely. Direct measurements show much greater voter interest and enthusiasm on the Romney side.In summary, these polls seem about right to me. If O is not over 50% after 5 years, I am not sure that 5 years and one month will change much.