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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

October 17th, 2012, 1:50 pm

I think Romney will win this election. I wouldn't risk too much money on it, maybe up to 58% or 60%. Because I obviously don't know how many people there are who think one thing versus another, and the amounts are very close. But based on our knowledge that they are very close, and then adding on top of that an observed effectiveness of Romney positioning himself as better on the economy, I think that small difference will tilt his way and he will win.Until now it was just a theory of what Romney could do to win. He should be able to define Obama as bad on the economy, and so anyone would assume he would get that far. But could he create a perception of himself as a decent and capable alternative? As not scary? The anecdotal samples of the open-minded "undecided" voter seem to indicate that he has.Romney is just dripping with credibility and accomplishments, and he managed to get people just slightly wet. And as scary as Obama tries to make him seem, he was elected governor of Massachusetts.I don't agree with all these points, but Dick Morris has a decent list:Quote1. Romney made very clear the case against Obama's economic record and Obama's rebuttal about 5 million jobs was pathetic.2. Romney injected the China issue, big time, and tapped into a strong public sentiment on the issue.3. Romney made the effective case that Obama is anti-oi, coal, and gas and that this has doubled gas prices.4. Romney was very effective in differentiating himself from Bush-43 and in establishing that, unlike the GOP of the past, he was for small businesses not big businesses5. Romney rebutted the attacks on him over Chinese investments.6. Romney explained his tax plan well and to everyone's satisfaction.7. Obama erred in trying to make us believe that he always felt Libya was a terror attack. We all heard him blame the movie.Obama scored points over the 47% statement by Romney, immigration, and by his response to the accusation that he went to Vegas after the murder of the Ambassador.
 
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ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

calling the election for romney

October 17th, 2012, 5:19 pm

looks like you are correctGallup currently has likely voters Romney 51 Obama 45, but of course, only the vote on election day actually counts
 
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farmer
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calling the election for romney

October 23rd, 2012, 11:10 pm

I have a new theory on this: If Romney wins, he will win big, by 6 or 7. We don't know if the Romney effect is real. We might not find out until election day, or we might find out sooner.It looks to me like people seem to like the guy. And if they do, I think it will affect many equally, or almost none at all. I don't think the Romney effect is something that picks up a person here or there. The anecdotal observations seem to show a broad, generic appeal, whether weak or strong. If he picks up one, he will pick up 10.I think it is a big net, one that will scoop beyond the undecideds into Obama voters. Neither guy is playing with a small net, but I think Romney's net is bigger. Whoever gets the fish will get the whole school, not just a few stragglers, or split the school. So it will be Obama by two or three, or Romney by six or seven.I think this is a bold prediction, because I think the popular thinking is that it will be a tight thing, a Bush-Gore type thing. But I think they will either break for Romney or they won't. And if they do break for Romney, it will be a big chunk breaking off for him.And like I said, I think that is the most plausible outcome at this point.
 
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scholar
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Joined: October 17th, 2001, 8:03 pm

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 1:08 pm

Dick Morris made a similar prediction on the "Factor" the last night
 
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trackstar
Posts: 27445
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 1:13 pm

I think it will be much closer: Obama 51%Romney 48%Other 1% or less, with any discrepancy here going to Romney.
Last edited by trackstar on October 23rd, 2012, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Anomanderis
Posts: 610
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calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 5:18 pm

Gallup has narrowed. It's now 50-47 against Obama. Three point reduction in two days. Interesting.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 5:48 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnomanderisGallup has narrowed. It's now 50-47 against Obama. Three point reduction in two days. Interesting.If you are bored, check Gallup's data. They supposedly are running a 7-day average of poll results. But the last time I glanced at their chart, it seemed choppy, for a moving average. One explanation would be that Gallup is extrapolating trends in daily polling to arrive at a published number.So they could publish the 7-day average, plus the 1-day rate of change of the average multiplied by 2. If the average of the last 7 days put Romney up by 3, and he had gained 2 in two days, they would call it 5. If the next day the average came out to 3 again, they would publish 3, because the momentum is gone.If there is momentum in voter sentiment, this would capture it more accurately than a historic snapshot. So it could offer the potential benefit of making Gallup look good, by being ahead of other pollsters.Just a theory, I have no reason to waste my time checking it.
 
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Anomanderis
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calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 5:54 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: AnomanderisGallup has narrowed. It's now 50-47 against Obama. Three point reduction in two days. Interesting.If you are bored, check Gallup's data. They supposedly are running a 7-day average of poll results. But the last time I glanced at their chart, it seemed choppy, for a moving average. One explanation would be that Gallup is extrapolating trends in daily polling to arrive at a published number.So they could publish the 7-day average, plus the 1-day rate of change of the average multiplied by 2. If the average of the last 7 days put Romney up by 3, and he had gained 2 in two days, they would call it 5. If the next day the average came out to 3 again, they would publish 3, because the momentum is gone.If there is momentum in voter sentiment, this would capture it more accurately than a historic snapshot. So it could offer the potential benefit of making Gallup look good, by being ahead of other pollsters.Just a theory, I have no reason to waste my time checking it.Amazingly, you didn't complain back when Ppauper mentioned Romney's lead. How curious.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 5:59 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Anomanderisyou didn't complainI am not complaining. I just did not assume anyone would be interested, until you said "interesting."
 
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Anomanderis
Posts: 610
Joined: November 15th, 2011, 10:07 pm

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 6:04 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: Anomanderisyou didn't complainI am not complaining. I just did not assume anyone would be interested, until you said "interesting."Hmm. I think you're doing a Romney brah. I don't buy your rather pathetic attempt to re-write history.You replied because it showed evidence against your "informed" projections.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 6:15 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnomanderisYou replied because it showed evidence against your "informed" projections.My post suggested pretty clearly that I don't look at Gallup much or take an interest in it. My only interest in it was the statistical curiosity of why it might say something different from other polls. On a day when it does say something different from other polls. Meaning not today when 3% is fairly common.Why would I look for some weird explanation of Gallup getting the same number as everyone else? It is the jump that is interesting, in light of its representation as a 7-day moving average. For a 7-day average to move 3 points in one day, there would have to be something like a 21-point difference between two days! That would be interesting!As to my "informed projection," I only thought it was interesting to post to the extent that it contradicted or added to polls. I am not someone who would see Gallup at three percent, and then make a post about how I think Romney will win by three percent, lol.In this case, I had in mind 1) historical evidence on the behavior of October undecideds during the reelection campaign of a true incumbent, and 2) clocking the likability of Mitt Romney. I did not mean to waste anyone's time quoting polls.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

October 24th, 2012, 6:37 pm

The implication of my theory, relative to your "interest," would be this: If Gallup has already extrapolated momentum to compensate for his long sample period, then there is no point you trying to do so. The Gallup number would not be likely to drop again on the next day after it dropped. So a 3-point drop might be more likely to be followed by a 1-day rise, and most likely by a sideways day.
 
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ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

calling the election for romney

October 26th, 2012, 4:07 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnomanderisGallup has narrowed. It's now 50-47 against Obama. Three point reduction in two days. Interesting.now it's GALLUP: R 51% O 46%
 
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rmax
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Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

calling the election for romney

October 26th, 2012, 5:27 pm

It is in the bag for Romney IMHO.
 
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farmer
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Posts: 13477
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

November 2nd, 2012, 6:19 pm

I was sleeping and I had a vision. The kind of vision that of I could go back to sleep, I would bet everything on Romney in the dreamland.In my vision, Americans were turning to Romney in droves. But not for the right reasons, for the wrong reasons. They were turning to Romney for no more reason than to gamble, like the dumb fucks that they are, on the possibility of something new. Barack Obama hangs in their hand like yesterday's worthless lottery ticket, and today they want hope again.And so they are turning to Romney, as the man who can relieve them of personal responsibility, and make the world around them magically provident. They are turning to Romney for the same reasons they turned to Barack four years ago, and it is no more complicated than that, when you get right down to it with these space cadets.
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