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ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

calling the election for romney

November 11th, 2012, 10:26 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangel{q] Obama won what 93% of the black vote but Romney only got 60% of the white vote and the GOP needs to increase thatno - they need to get the blacks and hispanics to vote GOP.that's the trap.Many in the GOP argue that they can't do anything about the hole in the fence because they don't want to alienate the latinos.So they do nothing, the number of latinos voting soars, and the latinos still vote for the dems.I've been hearing for decades that hispanics are socially conservative because they are often strict catholics and will vote for the GOP, but they never do.The level of pandering necessary to get hispanic votes means you lose white votes along the waythe last thing the GOP needs to do is become more male, more old, more white.you know that Romney won white women
 
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daveangel
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Joined: October 20th, 2003, 4:05 pm

calling the election for romney

November 11th, 2012, 11:43 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangel{q] Obama won what 93% of the black vote but Romney only got 60% of the white vote and the GOP needs to increase thatno - they need to get the blacks and hispanics to vote GOP.that's the trap.Many in the GOP argue that they can't do anything about the hole in the fence because they don't want to alienate the latinos.So they do nothing, the number of latinos voting soars, and the latinos still vote for the dems.I've been hearing for decades that hispanics are socially conservative because they are often strict catholics and will vote for the GOP, but they never do.The level of pandering necessary to get hispanic votes means you lose white votes along the waythe last thing the GOP needs to do is become more male, more old, more white.you know that Romney won white womenObama got 55% of women's votes. Surely there are more white women than any other female group in the US ?
knowledge comes, wisdom lingers
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

November 11th, 2012, 11:56 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerit will be Obama by two or three, or Romney by six or seven. I think this is a bold prediction, because I think the popular thinking is that it will be a tight thing, a Bush-Gore type thing. But I think they will either break for Romney or they won't.Obama by 2.6. But that does not invalidate my theory of undecideds breaking for Romney. It just invalidates likely voter models that say undecideds who voted in the last election will vote in this one.
Last edited by farmer on November 10th, 2012, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 9:03 am

record high turnout in florida
 
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EscapeArtist999
Posts: 1620
Joined: May 20th, 2009, 2:49 pm

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 11:26 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangel{q] Obama won what 93% of the black vote but Romney only got 60% of the white vote and the GOP needs to increase thatno - they need to get the blacks and hispanics to vote GOP.that's the trap.Many in the GOP argue that they can't do anything about the hole in the fence because they don't want to alienate the latinos.So they do nothing, the number of latinos voting soars, and the latinos still vote for the dems.I've been hearing for decades that hispanics are socially conservative because they are often strict catholics and will vote for the GOP, but they never do.The level of pandering necessary to get hispanic votes means you lose white votes along the waythe last thing the GOP needs to do is become more male, more old, more white.you know that Romney won white womenObama got 55% of women's votes. Surely there are more white women than any other female group in the US ?If you consider that Afro-Americans are about 12% of the pop and that Hispanis are about 17% of the pop. Using 93% as the percentage of African Americans who voted for Obama, and 71% as Hispanics who voted for Obama - If we further assume that the gender split is 50/50 and that they voted roughly the same way then.WWFO = White Women For Obama0.12*0.93+0.16*0.71+0.72*(WWFO) = 0.55 (I know I'm rounding out the other ethnicities, but I'm not going for super Accuracy)Which yields 45% of WWFO - so my initial guess is with farmer, lol.I used figures from here:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... polls.html
 
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exneratunrisk
Posts: 3559
Joined: April 20th, 2004, 12:25 pm

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 12:29 pm

About reasoning through colored spectatcles .. ?
Last edited by exneratunrisk on November 11th, 2012, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 12:36 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: exneratunriskAbout reasoning through colored spectatcles .. ?Asian Americans do not change facts, they are additional and separate facts.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 12:48 pm

A bunch of people who fit the mold of voters in any country in the world voted to make the US a crap country. And suddenly a bunch of halfwit geeks are celebrating like they watched the Detroit Lions beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on a TV in a basement with no heat.
 
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Fermion
Posts: 4486
Joined: November 14th, 2002, 8:50 pm

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 1:31 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: exneratunriskAbout reasoning through colored spectatcles .. ?Asian Americans do not change facts, they are additional and separate facts.farmer's math:If you add Asians to a group of non-Asians then the percentage of non-Asians in the group doesn't change.
 
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exneratunrisk
Posts: 3559
Joined: April 20th, 2004, 12:25 pm

calling the election for romney

November 12th, 2012, 1:53 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerA bunch of people who fit the mold of voters in any country in the world voted to make the US a crap country. And suddenly a bunch of halfwit geeks are celebrating like they watched the Detroit Lions beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on a TV in a basement with no heat.Do I understand you right - the political key message of the "exceptionist movement" to the rest of the world: we-make-your-life-but-don't-comment-who-and-how ....?
 
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daveangel
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Joined: October 20th, 2003, 4:05 pm

calling the election for romney

November 13th, 2012, 7:50 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: EscapeArtist999QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangel{q] Obama won what 93% of the black vote but Romney only got 60% of the white vote and the GOP needs to increase thatno - they need to get the blacks and hispanics to vote GOP.that's the trap.Many in the GOP argue that they can't do anything about the hole in the fence because they don't want to alienate the latinos.So they do nothing, the number of latinos voting soars, and the latinos still vote for the dems.I've been hearing for decades that hispanics are socially conservative because they are often strict catholics and will vote for the GOP, but they never do.The level of pandering necessary to get hispanic votes means you lose white votes along the waythe last thing the GOP needs to do is become more male, more old, more white.you know that Romney won white womenObama got 55% of women's votes. Surely there are more white women than any other female group in the US ?If you consider that Afro-Americans are about 12% of the pop and that Hispanis are about 17% of the pop. Using 93% as the percentage of African Americans who voted for Obama, and 71% as Hispanics who voted for Obama - If we further assume that the gender split is 50/50 and that they voted roughly the same way then.WWFO = White Women For Obama0.12*0.93+0.16*0.71+0.72*(WWFO) = 0.55 (I know I'm rounding out the other ethnicities, but I'm not going for super Accuracy)Which yields 45% of WWFO - so my initial guess is with farmer, lol.I used figures from here:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ls.htmlYou aren't far off - in fact O only got 42% of the White Women's vote. Interestingly, this was 7% (in absolute terms) more than the White men's vote. Romeny got 56% of the over 65 and 51% of the middle aged. So the GOP is party of old white men.
knowledge comes, wisdom lingers
 
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CrashedMint
Posts: 2591
Joined: January 25th, 2008, 9:12 pm

calling the election for romney

November 13th, 2012, 10:28 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangel{q] Obama won what 93% of the black vote but Romney only got 60% of the white vote and the GOP needs to increase thatno - they need to get the blacks and hispanics to vote GOP.that's the trap.Many in the GOP argue that they can't do anything about the hole in the fence because they don't want to alienate the latinos.So they do nothing, the number of latinos voting soars, and the latinos still vote for the dems.I've been hearing for decades that hispanics are socially conservative because they are often strict catholics and will vote for the GOP, but they never do.The level of pandering necessary to get hispanic votes means you lose white votes along the wayHere's the thing: If there were two candidates and you suspect that one genuinely respects you, and the other one tries really hard for strategic reasons to appear to like you simply because he has to, and it's hard, but hey there are many of you and maybe you're not that useless and bad and god how have we lost our way let's just whatever --- who would you vote for?The GOP cannot be the party who now panders to latinos because they feel they have to in order to win. Instead they need to be the party that actually does things that latinos like. Which will be hard, because the nations racists probably didn't vote for Obama, but also vote Republican. I'd guess that most republican voters are decent people, however I would also guess that out of the subset of racist assholes those who vote will vote republican. So maybe by being cool about latinos the GOP will win a few of their votes but lose a larger chunk of the racist vote. It's also quite possible that the GOP will not win at all because racists get pissed and latinos feel pandered to. So racists will remove themselves from the system by not voting or voting for a crazy fringe guy and latinos will still vote democrat.
 
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farmer
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Posts: 13477
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

calling the election for romney

November 13th, 2012, 10:35 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: CrashedMintHere's the thing: If there were two candidates and you suspect that one genuinely respects you, and the other one tries really hard for strategic reasons to appear to like you simply because he has to, and it's hard, but hey there are many of you and maybe you're not that useless and bad and god how have we lost our way let's just whatever --- who would you vote for?The GOP cannot be the party who now panders to latinos because they feel they have to in order to win. Instead they need to be the party that actually does things that latinos like.The Republicans are not the party of welfare. If latinos like welfare, but Republicans see latinos as not being on welfare, that is not disrespect. The Republicans present a vision of latinos as ordinary and successful Americans, like Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio. It was not the Republicans' idea to classify people with southern European ancestry as a disadvantaged minority demographic. It is the Democrats who thought hey, we can take these normal people, and turn them into dependent welfare pets. It was the Democrats idea to think we should respect people who have broken US laws, in exchange for them voting for us. Unbelievably, the Democrats have been the party of criminals in general over the last 50 years. Given that this hurts the rest of Americans, the Republicans just won't do it.There is a large percentage of Americans who will NEVER respect ANYONE on welfare, not even if you manage to find 100 million other people who look similar to them. It is just an insane thing you have proposed, that you have to respect people on welfare to win elections. Do you understand that making promises that cannot be kept in a bankrupt nation, to get elected, is not really respect?I guess you are redefining respect, as making untenable promises to anyone capable of finding his way into a voting booth. Do the Democrats genuinely like latinos? Yes, they genuinely like votes. Do they "respect" latinos? Of course not. Do they respect the desire of latinos to get free stuff? No, but they like it. Because they can promise it, even if the promises must ultimately prove empty, and even if the conditions of the people who receive the promises worsen in the arrangement.If somebody is an illegal alien from Mexico, it is not a genetic thing. There is nothing anyone in US can do to make life great for criminals in a third-world country. Reality matters. You cannot equalize outcomes for people who are disadvantaged by reality. Their circumstances are not caused by people in the US. If there were 100 million convicted murderers, would you recommend Republicans genuinely respect them, instead of pandering to them?Please answer this: Would you consider it a smart policy to grant every Mexican US citizenship, and then allow Mexican politicians to run for office in the US? It would certainly win a lot of elections. Would you vote for a smart politician who did this?
Last edited by farmer on November 12th, 2012, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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EscapeArtist999
Posts: 1620
Joined: May 20th, 2009, 2:49 pm

calling the election for romney

November 13th, 2012, 11:01 am

You never win popularity contests by telling people they nead to eat/drink/smoke less. Mitt's right about a number (not all) of people in the 47% - you don't win their vote when you say - hey f*cktard you need to work more and consume less - and yes that means no new iphone, but work, and maybe a little dignity.I would not have voted for Mitt, but Obama is an insanely vain man who probably loves watch himself in front of screeming crowds (someone like him undoubtedly views himself in the third person) And for the record the democrats will never bring unity to America like Obama says until they start listening to people in the red states and caring for their concerns instead of dismissing them.
Last edited by EscapeArtist999 on November 12th, 2012, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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exneratunrisk
Posts: 3559
Joined: April 20th, 2004, 12:25 pm

calling the election for romney

November 13th, 2012, 11:41 am

IMO, it should not be different from strategic marketing in businesses: focus-stretch-expand? And this includes the clear message: I do NOT want YOUR vote (in whatever direction), explicitly or implicitly ....("Computer tamers do NOT buy easy-to-use Apples ... - we do not like your constant whining on missing this-and-that. You are at the dark side of our bright planet")
Last edited by exneratunrisk on November 12th, 2012, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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