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trackstar
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 4th, 2012, 11:53 pm

The threads on the US Presidential race have proliferated widely here, but this is the one where you can bet real money on real candidates.The big day is Tuesday.I'll offer Obama 51% to Romney 49% (you can allocate any independent votes equally between them)If anyone wants to step in with a sporting wager, now is the time.The polls close on Tuesday night at 8 pm, time zone adjusted across the US. Edit: (Theoretically, but there is quite a mess in NY and NJ right now)Sweet Thing/Candidate - David Bowie
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bearish
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 12:39 am

Just to avoid potential arbs here, note that Intrade currently shows 64.5/35.6. Yes, that does add up to 100.1, which seems to leave alternative candidates a slightly negative probability of getting elected. And given the aftermath of Sandy, it is a very open question when polls will really close. I can see another Supreme Court intervention before this one is over.
 
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 12:41 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: bearishJust to avoid potential arbs here, note that Intrade currently shows 64.5/35.6. Yes, that does add up to 100.1, which seems to leave alternative candidates a slightly negative probability of getting elected. And given the aftermath of Sandy, it is a very open question when polls will really close. I can see another Supreme Court intervention before this one is over.Yes, absolutely on the post-hurricane poll question and we could bet on that too. I adjusted my previous post in that regard - there is trouble in Florida with absentee ballots too.
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 12:51 am

Staying on message. Politician - Cream Won't Get Fooled Again - The WhoJungleland - Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Bandfor residents of New JerseyConey Island Baby - Lou Reedfor residents of New YorkStar Spangled Banner - Jimi Hendrix
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zerdna
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 1:58 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: bearishJust to avoid potential arbs here, note that Intrade currently shows 64.5/35.6. Yes, that does add up to 100.1, which seems to leave alternative candidates a slightly negative probability of getting elected. And given the aftermath of Sandy, it is a very open question when polls will really close. I can see another Supreme Court intervention before this one is over.Yes, absolutely on the post-hurricane poll question and we could bet on that too. I adjusted my previous post in that regard - there is trouble in Florida with absentee ballots too.Your previous post still says at the moment QuoteI'll offer Obama 51% to Romney 49% (you can allocate any independent votes equally between them)Ahem, whatever your adjusted in your post is not all you should have adjusted. I'll try to succeed where bearish failed. What he politely told you is that if there were shmuck in the world who would not laugh and shrug shoulders at you and took your odds instead, you could have earned huge spread offloading this bet on intrade. You basically suggesting betting roughly 1:1 wheres intrade has almost 1:2 odds. You have to pay almost double if Romney wins. Capiche?
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 2:14 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaAhem, whatever your adjusted in your post is not all you should have adjusted. I'll try to succeed where bearish failed. What he politely told you is that if there were shmuck in the world who would not laugh and shrug shoulders at you and took your odds instead, you could have earned huge spread offloading this bet on intrade. You basically suggesting betting roughly 1:1 wheres intrade has almost 1:2 odds. You have to pay almost double if Romney wins. Capiche?I adjusted it slightly concerning the trouble with post-hurricane voting in some states. Added BOLD type for clarity.Since I have been gambling on Thoroughbreds since I was 12 years old, I guess I understand a few things about odds making, straight betting, laying off one's bets, and when would-be bettors have a fair shot at a decent payoff.Bottom line - Obama wins by 2% of the popular vote or greater, or I have to pay up.So, you wanna bet, big guy?
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 2:20 am

In fact, we can make it an exacta if you like.To the Presidential wager, add Elizabeth Warren (D) or Scott Brown (R) in Massachusetts for the US Senate.This is the hottest Senate race in the country.
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 2:26 am

Here I am, effectively offfering all of these Romney lovers 2-1 *against* their boy and they won't take it.Come zerdna/farmer, $200 is lying on the ground in front of you. Don't you want to grab it? Nah, I didn't think so.
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zerdna
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 2:58 am

QuoteBottom line - Obama wins by 2% of the popular vote or greater, or I have to pay up.OK, now you seem to be talking of something else, bet on a difference of total popular vote, not a bet on who wins electoral college. It's a possible bet, and not a bad one for someone betting on Romney, i think. I actually have bet running on Romney already and i gave money to his campaign, so i did put money where my mouth is.
 
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 3:01 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaQuoteBottom line - Obama wins by 2% of the popular vote or greater, or I have to pay up.OK, now you seem to be talking of something else, bet on a difference of total popular vote, not a bet on who wins electoral college. It's a possible bet, and not a bad one for someone betting on Romney, i think. I actually have bet running on Romney already and i gave money to his campaign, so i did put money where my mouth is.You must be The Poker Face of Moscow. Keep your cards so close to the chest...
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 3:05 am

Shooting Craps is more fun than this!Tumbling Dice - Rolling Stones
 
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zerdna
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 3:08 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarQuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaQuoteBottom line - Obama wins by 2% of the popular vote or greater, or I have to pay up.OK, now you seem to be talking of something else, bet on a difference of total popular vote, not a bet on who wins electoral college. It's a possible bet, and not a bad one for someone betting on Romney, i think. I actually have bet running on Romney already and i gave money to his campaign, so i did put money where my mouth is.You must be The Poker Face of Moscow. Keep your cards so close to the chest...Huh? Is it an attempt at sarcasm? I am tempted to answer that it's only since your celebrated chest is too far, otherwise i'd definitely kept them close to yours.
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 3:11 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaQuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarYou must be The Poker Face of Moscow. Keep your cards so close to the chest...Huh? Is it an attempt at sarcasm? I am tempting to answer that it's only since your celebrated chest is too far, otherwise i'd definitely kept them close to yours.Peace to you too, z.
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 3:34 am

It's been a long time since we had a good bull fight around here.
 
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zerdna
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Campaign 2012: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

November 5th, 2012, 4:15 am

QuoteIt's been a long time since we had a good bull fight around here. Indeed, me and track haven't been to the pool in a couple of days
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