I went to UK on work visa in late 2010 and returned in very early 2011. I was kept in detention for the entire year 2011 in a hospital in Karachi. Mind control agencies connived with Pakistan army and my family and the doctors declared me schizophrenic. I have been detained six or seven times for more than a month almost every time by different psychiatrist doctors on extremely flimsy excuses because "they wanted me to recover from my schizophrenia". All of these psychiatrist doctors took bribes from Pakistan Army who were in turn funded by mind control agencies and since my family was ready to help them, I had to bear this torture. I remained on antipsychotics all this time except for brief periods.
In the year 2012, after I returned from UK and left the detention in Karachi, I worked on interest rate models with separate simulation of basis and Libor rates. But then I thought that I should do more fundamental research and learn stochastics more deeply. I continued to dabble in a lot of things on my own working on transition probabilities with higher moments of the SDEs, Girsanov theorem. At one stage I was even starting a project on numerical simulation of PDEs with multicolor multigrid and parallel processing but I aborted it after some initial effort. Lot of my research was just amateur and I was not able to take most of these things to conclusion also because my circumstances were very difficult and it was very hard to be creative while being on antipsychotics and repeated detentions also broke my focus. Whenever I would do anything slightly serious and relatively significant, I would be simply detained on flimsy excuses and very high medication would be given to me and it would take me several months to start working normally again. Besides research on stochastics, I also continued to work on the problem of market trading from time to time.
However, I got my very serious break only when I discovered the integral form of Taylor series on my own and realized that we could solve SDEs with integral form of Taylor series and repeated Ito-integrations. As usual, I was hospitalized and detained for several weeks right after I made posts about it on internet. I am very glad that I was able to retain focus but decided that I should first apply the method on Ordinary differential equations and only when I applied it to ODEs that I was able to think of modification required to handle time in ODEs separately and differently from Taylor series something that made the method more general than simple integral form of Taylor series. Though from the start I was very sure that I would be able to solve SDEs with this method, It still took me several years to be able to solve monte carlo simulations with this method because I was on very high mind-numbing medications. And later, I continued to work on methods to solve SDEs on a Z-grid and it again took me about two years to approximately solve the Fokker-planck equation on a Z-grid. However, I was able to leverage my earlier experiments with transition probabilities and Girsanov to do some more productive work. I was really able to do better work since I kept my focus alive despite repeated detentions. In past ten years, I made no money other than several thousands dollars from a project that required very simple statistics, almost no stochastics and only required VBA on excel. Mind control agencies continued to ask people I would contact for projects to not give me any work and later I started to like that.
For next several years (3-4 years), I want to continue my research on stochastics and also want to learn more artificial intelligence. I would want to take small research projects to support myself while I would want to make my research fully public during this time. In fact, I wanted to work as a small open source company(hiring young programmers and researchers in Pakistan) funded by different commercial organizations and academics that would do research and write professional open source programs based on that research that could be used freely by people everywhere but I almost gave up on this last idea after no one responded to my call for donations to support my private research. Though I still think that if I had approached organizations and individuals personally under a new democrat government, some people would have been responding and donating. Anyway, for next several years, I want to continue to research on stochastics in one setting or other and I really want it to be open source type research accessible to everyone. I really want to keep my focus on this research and take it to more thorough conclusion before starting on anything else.
However, after a few years, I want to start work on market trading of stocks, vanilla instruments and simple derivatives based on stochastics and AI. I want to write my own algorithms and try them on different large stock exchanges around the world. I am sure it is going to be very difficult but I hope to be able to draw reasonably large and consistent profits after a few years.
And if I could have a steady stream of reasonably large income, I would invest it in engineering and technology companies. I have several ideas for technology companies and I would share one here that I consider very important and I am very passionate about. And it would also seem impossible to most friends.
Before I start explaining the project, I want to say something to build the right context. I consider myself to be extremely privileged to be a human. We almost always take it for granted and I also probably took it for granted for most of my life. But more I think what humanity is and how special human beings are in this world, the more I believe that this is an extreme privilege that I was born a human. And we are a result of several billion years of evolution associated with life on earth. Our evolution made us more and more suited to living with climate and other properties associated with earth. We are not made for Mars, or Titan or any other part of the solar system, we are made for living with precise conditions on our own blue planet. We might want to go to Mars or somewhere else in our solar system if humanity or life is threatened on earth by any great calamity but any such calamity can likely happen only at a galactic scale and several centuries are a mere blip on galactic scale. We should be more concerned with improving conditions for life at our blue planet something that is our true home and something that we are specialized for living at due to billions of years of evolution. Living on Mars might be a great adventure with unique experiences but I am sure that I would enjoy a pleasant sunny day on earth far more than living in extreme conditions constantly wearing a space suit. So I would like to do something interesting on our own blue planet.
If I could have enough money, I will like to plant a jungle in entire Sahara desert. And I early warned friends that you would consider it impossible but I believe that it is certainly a very very doable thing.
I have this idea for a very long time and I made a post about it on Wilmott several years ago that I would copy at the end here.
Briefly we would use large number of huge wind-turbines at very suitably chosen places along the maghreb coast and use them to desalinate(enough for suitable vegetation) and pump water upstream in artificial step-up canal channels into Sahara body. We will do extensive simulation studies where to first grow large bodies of trees so that it would be both cheapest and most effective in possibly altering the weather and causing some extra rain that could possibly help as well. We would carefully study what trees to grow for a combination that could take minimum amount of water, requiring least lifetime care with most effect on altering the climate and causing more rain. And step by step, we would increase our plantations based on our simulations so as to cover more and more of the Sahara with trees based on desalinated sea water and possibility of more rain as the forest cover increases.
We could go into an agreement with all the countries comprising Sahara to share 50% equity in our Sahara Jungle development company proportional to Sahara desert land in their jurisdiction. We will make an extensive and detailed plan for the development of the reclaimed land. Though we might later change it dramatically based on our simulations and possible benefits to climate, we will initially plan that 60% of the reclaimed land will be sustainable forest with both wild forest areas and commercial forest areas where certain percentage of trees would be periodically and sustainably cut and put to uses that would absorb carbon. 20% of the land would be set aside for traditional cultivation and farming that would provide food for another 5% of the areas that would be extensively planned and thoroughly modern cities. Some percentage of areas would be mountains where it would be difficult to plant trees or put to other use until it starts raining naturally. Our forest plantation company would also own all the land(with half the equity given to respective countries) and would undertake complete development of cities and road network and optimize their development according to profitability, sustainability and other objectives. These would be very modern and extremely well planned cities with strict architectural code, all modern facilities and other required amenities and needed skilled people would be welcome from all over the world to come and live there. It would be worked out with all the respective countries on conditions at which they will grant citizenship to people who would want to live in modern Sahara cities. We would also share the mining rights with Sahara countries with the condition that 40% of the mining income would be spent on supporting the Sahara cities and their development in a non-profit way while respective countries would be able to spend rest of the mining and natural resources freely on rest of the country.
Ok, call me a lunatic but this is all very possible. I had done a back of the envelope calculation about feasibility of the Sahara Jungle several years ago and I would post it here. If I were to do a feasibility study now, several things would completely change. I would never start with Eucalyptus trees and plan very carefully about how to plant trees in various phases of Sahara forest development. Here are my previous posts copied here.
Posted on June 4th, 2017, 4:18 am
Water Lifting Costs
Posted on June 4th, 2017, 10:52 pm
Are there any experts working on the idea of planting a huge jungle in Sahara desert fed by seawater from the oceans. There would be large wind turbines along the Maghreb coast that will pump water from the sea into the desert. New very cheap and efficient desalination technologies based on nanotechnology would be used and wind turbines on the coast would power these desalination plants. First plantations would be very close to the sea and slowly the plantations would move towards the heart of the desert. The project would be scalable with all provisions of planned expansions in earlier phases. Very carefully selected tree and plants species would be planted after considering the adaptability in climate, potential benefits to atmosphere, possible commercial use and several other related issues. Once the climate of the desert cools, there would also be a plan for future cities in the desert and network of roads. This could be a 15-30 years project costing a few hundred billion dollars. Sahara Jungle plantations could be enough to control global warming and possibly decrease temperatures preventing the cost of tens of trillions of dollars associated with global warming on our planet. It could also be run as a sustainable and highly profitable commercial enterprise.
Posted on Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:02 am
Just to give a stronger motivation, I tried to do some very simple calculations on the back of envelope that can easily be tweaked in all sort of ways by people who have actual interest in calculating realistic costs of irrigation associated with Sahara desert. First we will have to build channels that carry water in a stair-step fashion. After every few kilometers, the height of channels will increase and there will be pumping machinery to lift water from lower channel to higher channel. There will be high tension wires along the channels that will transport electricity from the wind turbines along the ocean shore and they will provide energy to pumps at the end of channels to lift water. You could also use solar energy at places. Here are some simple energy calculations.
Suppose we plant Eucalyptus trees that require 40 litres per tree per day on the lower side. Of course we would like all sort of other trees in the jungle but Eucalyptus is probably a good start.
We plant 500 trees per acre.
Area of the desert is 9.2 million km-sq.
which is 2272 million acres.
2272 million acres X 500 trees per acre X 40 liters per tree= Roughly 12.75 million acre-foot of water.
I have used 1 acre-foot= 1.2 million liters.
If we take average height of Sahara where water has to be lifted to be 400 meters above sea level, we can proceed as
Energy required to lift one acre-foot of water by one foot= Roughly 1 KWh.
Energy required to lift 12.75 million acre-foot of water by one foot= 12750 MWh.
Energy required to lift 12.75 million acre-foot of water by 400 meters= 12750 X (400 meters X 3.28 foot/meters )= 16.7 million MWh.
Suppose we can produce very cheap electricity on this very large scale by installing 10 MW turbines.
Suppose cost of electricity is 10 dollars per MWh.
Daily cost of energy would be 16.7 million MWh X 10 dollars = 167 million dollars.
Rough energy cost for 365 days would be 61 billion dollars.
Tweak in all sort of interesting ways.
Add an evaporation factor for the water that would evaporate from channels and other places.
Add desalination cost using the best expected nanotechnology.
Tweak for the fraction of Sahara that will actually be converted into a jungle each year.
Water lifting height will be smaller in the starting years.
Costs of building the channels.
Add costs associated with all other factors.
Very Rough Difference Between Costs and Profits
Posted on June 5th, 2017, 7:02 am
Calculation of Desalination costs.
one thousand liters would require 2KWh of power with expected technologies.
One acre-foot would require 2.4 MWh of energy
12.75 million acre-foot of water would require desalination cost of 12.75 million X 2.4 = 30.6 million MWh.
At ten dollars per MWh, the associated energy costs would be about 300 million dollars.
Rough water desalination cost per year would be 300 million X 365 days= 109.5 billion dollars.
If the Eucalyptus trees yield 30 tons over 7 years per acre without any fertilizer and special treatments.
Let us suppose one ton of Eucalyptus yields 40 dollars.
The reward price for 30 tons would be 40 X3 = 1200 dollars.
For 2272 million acres of Sahara, the reward price would be = 1200 * 2272 million= 2726.4 billion dollars.
while for seven years total water lifting and desalination costs at previously calculated rates would be = (109.5 +61) billion dollars X 7 years= 1193 billion dollars
Of course fixed costs are required to be calculated.