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Paul
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Re: Chatroom

December 11th, 2022, 9:07 pm

teleprompters
I thought they were mirrors so he could check he hadn’t left his flies undone or wet himself.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Chatroom

December 11th, 2022, 9:10 pm

teleprompters
What?
They sought it with thimbles, they sought it with care; They pursued it with forks and hope; They threatened its life with a railway-share; They charmed it with smiles and soap.
 
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tagoma
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Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Re: Chatroom

December 12th, 2022, 10:43 am

teleprompters
I thought they were mirrors so he could check he hadn’t left his flies undone or wet himself.
Image
 
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tagoma
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Re: Chatroom

February 6th, 2023, 8:57 pm

BTW friends any comments on that ION hacking story?
Impact was quite big for us in the commodities space (e,g, CFTC).
 
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tagoma
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Re: Chatroom

February 18th, 2023, 11:57 am

Friends, I would like to ask a fairly basic question. Is there some rule-of-thumb that links interest to GDP growth?  e,g, with the US case, the Fed raising rates by 1% point cost X% of US GDP growth. Thank you.
 
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Marsden
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Re: Chatroom

February 18th, 2023, 1:35 pm

I don't think anyone has ever dared to try to fit numbers into the relationship. Possibly for good reason, because it all probably depends very heavily on what your starting point is: are you going, for example, from 1% to 2% interest, or from 7% to 8%? And that's without looking at the prevailing rate of GDP growth.

If I had to come up with numbers -- at gunpoint, for example -- I think I'd start with thinking about what the "multiplier effect" of fiscal stimulus is, mainly because there are a lot more hard number guesses at that ... even if they have all turned out to be completely wrong.

Then I'd make a guess at what might be thought of as the duration of borrowing: if we assume there is a fixed amount consumers plan on repaying at a fixed date in the future -- both of which are obviously wrong assumptions, but never mind -- how much does a 1% increase in the interest rate change the amount of money that people will borrow?

And then pretend, wrongly, that the change in the amount borrowed is a change in the amount of fiscal stimulus, and hit it with your inaccurate guess at the multiplier effect, and you get a really bad guess at the effect on GDP.
 
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tagoma
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Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Re: Chatroom

February 19th, 2023, 8:44 am

Thank you @Marsden. It seems intuitive to everyone around me on top of people appearing on CNBC (unfortunately we all have that useless buzz in the background on the trading floor). I wouldn't want to be the one trailing far behind.