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MattF
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Another Black Swan event

August 8th, 2014, 7:30 am

Recently on the Tube the carriage was invaded by a large number of young and beautiful girls. They were unused to the mechanics of Tube travel as they tended to fall over into each other, and me, when the train accelerated away from a stop, but as they only weighed a few ounces this wasn't really a problem. They all had identical T-shirts with some text including 'cisne negro'. I knew cygnus was Latin for swan and cigne was French ... could it be that cisne was swan here? Yes! Some later googling reveals the 'Cisne Negro' is a leading Brazilian contemporary dance company! Their website: Black Swan
 
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ppauper
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Another Black Swan event

August 8th, 2014, 8:00 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: MattFthey tended to fall over into each other, and me, when the train accelerated away from a stop, but as they only weighed a few ounces this wasn't really a problem. would hot girls falling onto you ever be a problem ?
 
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tags
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Another Black Swan event

August 9th, 2014, 11:39 am

Hi MattF. Just in case that changes something to your reflection on swans, the French word is 'cygne' (not 'cigne') Larousse entry
Last edited by tags on August 8th, 2014, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ppauper
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Another Black Swan event

August 9th, 2014, 1:08 pm

cisne negro is both spanish and portuguese (and also Galician but not catalan which is cigne negre)
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Another Black Swan event

February 27th, 2017, 11:37 pm

I suppose it was only a matter of time before we get the next black swan.

Taleb's performance on BBC tonight was less than stellar; he was all over the place. 
I think he is jumping on the bandwagon, or am I missing something? His remark on Latenight about Gaussian distributions fell on deaf ears.

It was one of the worst Latenight interviews in quite a while.
//

Many political onlookers described Trump’s election as a “black swan” event: unexpected but enormously consequential. The term was popularized by Nassim Taleb, the best-selling author whose 2014 book Antifragile—which has been read and circulated by Bannon and his aides—reads like a user’s guide to the Trump insurgency.
It’s a broadside against big government, which Taleb faults for suppressing the randomness, volatility and stress that keep institutions and people healthy. “As with neurotically overprotective parents, those who are trying to help us are hurting us the most,” he writes. Taleb also offers a withering critique of global elites, whom he describes as a corrupt class of risk-averse insiders immune to the consequences of their actions: “We are witnessing the rise of a new class of inverse heroes, that is, bureaucrats, bankers, Davos-attending members of the I.A.N.D (International Association of Name Droppers), and academics with too much power and no real downside and/or accountability. They game the system while citizens pay the price.”
It might as well have been the mission statement of the Trump campaign. Asked in a phone interview this week whether he’s had meetings with Bannon or his associates, Taleb said he could not comment. “Anything about private meetings would need to come from them,” he said, though he noted cryptically he’s had “coffee with friends.” He has been supportive of Trump but does not define himself as a supporter per se, though he said he would “be on the first train” to Washington were he invited to the White House.
“They look like the incarnation of ‘antifragile’ people,” Taleb said of the new administration. “The definition of ‘antifragile’ is having more upside than downside. For example, Obama had little upside because everyone thought he was brilliant and would solve the world’s problems, so when he didn’t it was disappointing. Trump has little downside because he’s already been so heavily criticized. He’s heavily vaccinated because of his checkered history. People have to understand: 
Last edited by Cuchulainn on February 28th, 2017, 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Paul
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Re: Another Black Swan event

February 28th, 2017, 7:10 am

I disagree. I thought he was very good. The interviewer was dumb. He had actual 'content.'
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Another Black Swan event

February 28th, 2017, 8:30 am

Maybe the interviewer could have given him more time them to present a case. 
 
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Paul
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Re: Another Black Swan event

February 28th, 2017, 9:26 am

The BBC is rubbish. They employ more people than the NHS and all their children are called Max and Poppy.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Another Black Swan event

February 28th, 2017, 9:47 am

The BBC is rubbish. They employ more people than the NHS and all their children are called Max and Poppy.
I agree.  They don't have the likes of Robin Day any more. I think they should invite NT to prepare and give an hour-long interview. His graph-theoretic micro/macro mental model should be expanded. If one node fails in a distributed system, then it does not drag the others down? Seems we are back in isolationism  mode  which is not a million miles away from the prevailing winds in USA, GB, NL.

On a more philosophical level,, I am uneasy with new-fangled words that describe events that can be explained by established methods, e,g. history. Things just happen. No one would say that the Russian Revolution was a black swan? It's basically just scenario analysis for structural uncertainty. 

Paulson and Pelligrini saw the crash coming (me too) but they had empirical data. I think we shall see that this populist movement will be short-lived.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Another Black Swan event

February 28th, 2017, 10:22 am

cisne negro is both spanish and portuguese (and also Galician but not catalan which is cigne negre)
What about cider?
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Another Black Swan event

January 4th, 2018, 6:41 pm

This fall-out between Trump and Bannon .. how would you describe it? Which one ie more fragile now?

"Trump has little downside because he’s already been so heavily criticized. He’s heavily vaccinated because of his checkered history. 
People have to understand:"
 
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ISayMoo
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Re: Another Black Swan event

January 4th, 2018, 7:38 pm

The BBC is rubbish. They employ more people than the NHS and all their children are called Max and Poppy.
Fake news!
 
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Paul
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Re: Another Black Swan event

January 4th, 2018, 8:59 pm

The BBC is rubbish. They employ more people than the NHS and all their children are called Max and Poppy.
Fake news!
23,000?! I thought I was joking!
 
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ISayMoo
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Re: Another Black Swan event

January 4th, 2018, 9:18 pm

Yeah, but we have Dr Who.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Another Black Swan event

January 6th, 2018, 12:50 pm

The BBC is rubbish. They employ more people than the NHS and all their children are called Max and Poppy.
Fake news!
23,000?! I thought I was joking!
The BBC is severely understaffed it would seem.