Serving the Quantitative Finance Community

 
User avatar
Anthis
Posts: 7
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 3rd, 2015, 7:26 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnThey were voted in by the electorate and now you want to try them for treason.Demagogues promising everything to everyone just to earn few votes, essentially seizing power by stealing votes and deceiving the electorate, capitalizing on crisis dont worth any respect in my humble view. And when such people fail once on power, someone must give them a lesson that there is nothing costless in politics, once one is in power. Both Pasok and New Democracy have paid their toll politically, for implementing austerity. Both were parties with electorate share between 35-45%, now the first has been decimated and the second has half its former votes. I can accuse both for not implementing enough and the right austerity measures, but at least they kept banks open, and never put at question country's position within eurozone.Now the government gang of the dumb, the dumber and the dumbest, have failed in everything, have reformed nothing, on the contrary, opened again state tv, nicknamed pravda, hired more in public sector, they have refused to make even a single decision that might convey political cost, and care only for how they will remain in power few more days. Now the last colonel of 1967 coup is dead, I m sure there are some empty prison cells waiting for them.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 20254
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 20, 000

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 6:04 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnThey were voted in by the electorate and now you want to try them for treason.Demagogues promising everything to everyone just to earn few votes, essentially seizing power by stealing votes and deceiving the electorate, capitalizing on crisis dont worth any respect in my humble view. And when such people fail once on power, someone must give them a lesson that there is nothing costless in politics, once one is in power. Both Pasok and New Democracy have paid their toll politically, for implementing austerity. Both were parties with electorate share between 35-45%, now the first has been decimated and the second has half its former votes. I can accuse both for not implementing enough and the right austerity measures, but at least they kept banks open, and never put at question country's position within eurozone.Now the government gang of the dumb, the dumber and the dumbest, have failed in everything, have reformed nothing, on the contrary, opened again state tv, nicknamed pravda, hired more in public sector, they have refused to make even a single decision that might convey political cost, and care only for how they will remain in power few more days. Now the last colonel of 1967 coup is dead, I m sure there are some empty prison cells waiting for them.You know, Anthis that austerity has never worked? Your government was democratically chosen.And still silence on military spending. That's costing an arm and a leg.
 
User avatar
traderjoe1976
Posts: 2
Joined: May 19th, 2006, 9:50 am

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 9:36 am

The issue is not so much about youth unemployment. It has more to do with the youth lacking the skills which are in demand. You have to recognize that Greek citizens have the right to work anywhere in Europe. The skills which are in short supply are computer skills, technology skills, engineering skills, healthcare (doctor and nursing) skills. When these skill sets are in short supply and Greek youth have the right to work anywhere in Europe, why complain about unemployment.62-year-old person who works would pay the government $20,000 per year in taxes. 62-year-old person who sits on the beach costs the government $35,000 per year in pension and healthcare. USA has already raised retirement age to 67 years as life expectancy has increased. No one wants to retire at 62-years and then sit on the beach for 30 years while the young people have to pay the taxes to support them.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 20254
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 20, 000

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 9:38 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: traderjoe1976The issue is not so much about youth unemployment. It has more to do with the youth lacking the skills which are in demand. You have to recognize that Greek citizens have the right to work anywhere in Europe. The skills which are in short supply are computer skills, technology skills, engineering skills, healthcare (doctor and nursing) skills. When these skill sets are in short supply and Greek youth have the right to work anywhere in Europe, why complain about unemployment.62-year-old person who works would pay the government $20,000 per year in taxes. 62-year-old person who sits on the beach costs the government $35,000 per year in pension and healthcare. USA has already raised retirement age to 67 years as life expectancy has increased. No one wants to retire at 62-years and then sit on the beach for 30 years while the young people have to pay the taxes to support them.Good remarks. Most EU countries (except France?) have 67 as retirement age...
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 3rd, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 11729
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 10:25 am

When the U.S. really did try austerity, it worked!Austerity In Europe: It Will Work If It's Ever Tried - ForbesQuoteUsing data from Eurostat (the official statistics agency of the European Union), I calculated the change in government spending from 2008 to 2012. In fact, the data tell us that only eight out of the thirty countries in Europe that are listed have reduced government spending over that period. Of those eight countries, only Iceland and Ireland have been prominent austerity examples in the news. (The others are Bulgaria, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, and Romania.)The countries that have purportedly tried austerity and failed are not on the above list. Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal have all increased government spending, not reduced it. In fact, according to the Eurostat data, Italy is the only one of those four countries whose government spending increase is below the EU average over the 2008 to 2012 period. Greece (8.3% increase over the four years), Spain (13.3%), and Portugal (5.8%) have not only avoided austerity, but actually have been more profligate than the average European government which increased spending by 4.9% in the same timeframe. Italy has been only slightly better behaved, with a spending increase of 4.1% from 2008 to 2012.
 
User avatar
Anthis
Posts: 7
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 12:31 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: traderjoe1976The issue is not so much about youth unemployment. It has more to do with the youth lacking the skills which are in demand. You have to recognize that Greek citizens have the right to work anywhere in Europe. The skills which are in short supply are computer skills, technology skills, engineering skills, healthcare (doctor and nursing) skills. When these skill sets are in short supply and Greek youth have the right to work anywhere in Europe, why complain about unemployment..Good remarks, actually German hospitals, organize regularly over the last years events in Athens trying to fish doctors and healthcare professionals. On the other hand, language and cultural barriers excluded, relocating to another country might be an easy decision when you are young, not so easy when you are a mid career professional with family and a settled life. It can be seen as sort of exile. Many people just dont want to move to another country. Its their right to demand to have a job in their own homecountry.Quote62-year-old person who works would pay the government $20,000 per year in taxes. 62-year-old person who sits on the beach costs the government $35,000 per year in pension and healthcare. USA has already raised retirement age to 67 years as life expectancy has increased. No one wants to retire at 62-years and then sit on the beach for 30 years while the young people have to pay the taxes to support themI guess you are missing something here. every employee has 14% of his gross monthly salary withheld for pension and healthcare contributions. The residual is subject to income tax. His Employer top these contributions with another 28% of the gross salary. This is obligatory by law. For certain hazardous jobs the rates are double. Those on free lancer status make their own insurance contributions, as fixed monthly sums that increase with age. Again its obligatory. Consequently, a 62 years old man may have already paid contributions for 40 or more years. His pension is not taxpayers' money, its money already contributed over the years by himself and his employers. A pension is a claim, not a welfare benefit. Moreover, pension income is subject to income tax and healthcare contributions. If the contributions made have been missmanaged is another issue, but trying to depict pensioners as sort of parasites is completely misleading.The problem is that for certain types of people the foresees an option of "premature pension". One case coming to mind, is that women working in public sector for 20 or more years, with 3 or more kids, one of them still under 18 can have a pension at 53 with a reduced pension. They can stay at work in order to increase their expected pension income but keep the option to exit at any time. Troika demands this to be stopped, as its perceived as parasitic to other pensioners, accepts only mothers of handicapped children to be excluded. Tsipras refuses this reform as this will harm his clientele, a big part of his voters work in public sector...
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 3300
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 3:44 pm

It may be the right of every citizen to demand a job in their home country but it's also the obligation of citizens to create those a jobs.I think Tradejoe1976's point might be that the change from worker status to pensioner status is a net-negative to GDP (retirees typically consume less) and a huge net-negative on government cash flows -- the person switches from the revenue column to the cost column.If Greece's retirement system is anything like the US one, it's been sold by politicans as a "savings" program with pensioners having a claim on their past contributions, but it is financed as a wealth transfer from the employed and productive to the retired. Such pay-as-you-go systems can be stable as long as the country has some combination of population growth and life-expectancy stability. But if people live longer and have fewer babies (or insufficient immigration), the system collapses like a Ponzi scheme.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 11729
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 4:04 pm

T4A: I'm glad someone else agrees that Social Security is a ponzi scheme
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 3300
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 4th, 2015, 4:12 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperT4A: I'm glad someone else agrees that Social Security is a ponzi schemeIndeed! What's frustrating is that it would not be that hard to stabilize Social Security because the core demographic trends on birth rates (actually the rate of new adults) and life expectancy can be forecast decades in advance. It would not be that hard to manage the worker-retiree ratio over time. The system is defined by an integral over these population dynamics which means noise averages out but that an incompetently managed drift term is a killer.In my cynical moments, I think politicians intentionally create these unstable systems to harm opposition politicians and create problems that justify their power.
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 3420
Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 6th, 2015, 12:21 pm

Here's where the Greek Bailout Fund stands:Euros 1,898,636raised by 107,032 people in 8 days18 hours leftSo they could still hit 2 million, but if not, I will owe Cuchulainn 4 euros, 3 for this bet and 1 carried over from the a previous bet.If there are no euros by the time I visit to pay this off, I'll just pay in USD on a 1:1 basis or pound sterling at half a pound per Euro. :D
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 3420
Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 7th, 2015, 11:39 am

Just a bit short:1,930,577EURraised by 108,654 people in 8 days0% funded 0 time leftSo I owe Cuchulainn 4 Euros.Thanks for the wager!
Last edited by trackstar on July 6th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 11729
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 7th, 2015, 11:57 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarHere's where the Greek Bailout Fund stands:Euros 1,898,636raised by 107,032 people in 8 days18 hours leftSo they could still hit 2 million, but if not, I will owe Cuchulainn 4 euros, 3 for this bet and 1 carried over from the a previous bet.If there are no euros by the time I visit to pay this off, I'll just pay in USD on a 1:1 basis or pound sterling at half a pound per Euro. :Dhow much did you win on the horse race wager?
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 3420
Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

Creative Thinking on Greece

July 7th, 2015, 12:16 pm

From the Kentucky Derby thread:QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarNot clear if it is 10/1 on me attending the Belmont Stakes or 10/1 on Am. Pharoah winning the Belmont and thus the Triple Crown.If it's the latter, I will take the bet and will put $100 on it. :DSo that would have been $1,000, but this was never confirmed and you know that I do not hold people to bets that were batted around, but no one actually made a clear commitment to them.I am looking for some proposals on Wimbledon. **This is also why I take the counterparty into consideration before firming things up myself.You saw how tw waltzed in and made some vague proposal about an accumulator awhile ago. A few of us tried to clarify and I made a very good counter proposal involving four sporting events.He never got back to me on that and then on another thread mentioned that he had found "no joy" with his accumulator.Well, as Europe is finding out, sometimes you have to find joy in negotiation and compromise. :DIn any case, all we have here are our online reputations. Sometimes I might give a potential wagerer a second chance, but often it is not worth the trouble.One strike and you're out!
Last edited by trackstar on July 6th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.