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Cuchulainn
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 26th, 2018, 8:30 pm

the only people with evidence either way are the UK government and they've chosen not to share it with us
I am not 100% sure they have evidence of anything much. The fact that Boris Johnson is so convinced makes me even less sure.
Shovel of salt.
 
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Paul
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 27th, 2018, 6:04 am

The fact that Boris Johnson is so convinced makes me even less sure.
That’s what they want you to think.
 
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ppauper
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 27th, 2018, 6:38 am

there was an odd statement by one of the europeans the other day
Mr Tusk said: "European Council agrees with UK government that highly likely Russia is responsible for Salisbury attack and that there is no other plausible explanation."
"highly likely"

I wonder what Donald Tusk means when he uses that
in one study, researchers asked nato officers how they interpreted various estimations of likelihood, and "highly likely" ranged from below 50% to what, 93%

Image

Here's how people view the difference between something being 'highly likely' and it being just 'probable'

I'd like to see a number, the probability that Russia did this is X%

I'll repost something I posted in the UK going to the dogs thread last week
anyhoo, according to the internet, there are at least 2 theories circulating
the daughter recently visited moscow and someone put the nerve agent in her suitcase while she was there
Senior sources have told the Telegraph they are convinced the Novichok nerve agent was hidden in the luggage of Yulia Skripal, the double agent’s 33-year-old daughter.
Either they weren't that convinced, or they changed their minds,
Russian ex-spy's poisoning in UK believed from nerve agent in car vents
At one point they were "convinced" (probability 100%?) that the nerve agent was in the daughter's luggage, yet later they put out a different theory

While we're here, "plausible" (also used by Donald Tusk) evidently means "(of an argument or statement) seeming reasonable or probable."
If "plausible" means "probable" and "probable" means [$]>50\%[$] (or does it??) then there can never be more than one "plausible" explanation.

What's the current scenario, the agent and his daughter are sitting in their car at a stop light when the locks click shut and a cloud of white gas comes out of the vents? I've seen that in a Bond movie, but I'm not sure that it's reasonable or probable
 
 
 
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Gamal
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 27th, 2018, 10:20 am

If anyone has any real evidence that the poisoning of the spy and daughter had nothing to do with Putin now is the time to mention it...Things are starting to get a bit tense.
You're saying that Russians don't exterminate individuals? You're right to some extend but you know, Russia is in crisis these days, they must reduce activities.
 
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Paul
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 27th, 2018, 10:38 am

I assume it’s most likely to be Putin. But as things escalate the downside for him does not scale up as much as the downside for civilisation (also known as the “west”).
 
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Gamal
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 27th, 2018, 11:00 am

It depends what you call civilisation. The west for sure isn't civilisation, the west is fat cats.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 27th, 2018, 12:11 pm

It depends what you call civilisation. The west for sure isn't civilisation, the west is fat cats.
Image
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

March 28th, 2018, 10:25 am

Seems governments use the rules of probability to determine their decisions. And the word of others.

Yet Brutus says he was ambitious;
And, sure, he is an honourable man.
I speak not to disprove what Brutus spoke,
 
 
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Gamal
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

June 9th, 2018, 3:29 pm

I've got a friend who's a fan od Russia: he watches Russian movies, collects books about Russia, travels there every year and so on. Once I had a look at his book shelf: all abour labor camps, Stalin, Ivan the Terrible... 

Are there any good news from Russia? - I asked.

No - he replied.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

June 9th, 2018, 7:44 pm

I've got a friend who's a fan od Russia: he watches Russian movies, collects books about Russia, travels there every year and so on. Once I had a look at his book shelf: all abour labor camps, Stalin, Ivan the Terrible... 

Are there any good news from Russia? - I asked.

No - he replied.
Do you have other friends? 
 
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Gamal
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Re: Russia земля борца самбо

June 10th, 2018, 10:20 am

You mean yourself? No.
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