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Siberian
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September 11th, 2008, 3:00 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeQuoteOriginally posted by: SiberianQuoteOriginally posted by: ChicagoGuyQuoteThose days when credit, structured products, commodities and enhanced indexes are almost done....I think the contrary....credit and structured products are going to become more pupular in the future. Why is everyone thinking that these are going to die off just because we had this crisis? Pepople are going to forget about all this in a couple of years and start trading them again BAU, with a bit more caution. Hey people thought that prostitution was going to die off after AIDs spread in the US and Europe but it hasnt become a bit less popular....So what about all those structured credit products??? High risk, high reward; just like prostitution.agree with CG, people did not stop trading tech stocks after the crash, so...what do you guys think about farmable land as a commodity?Definitely. The Chinese want it, and see my thread on rainforest bonds.better start buying Canadian land
 
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tu160
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September 11th, 2008, 3:51 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ChicagoGuyQuoteThose days when credit, structured products, commodities and enhanced indexes are almost done....I think the contrary....credit and structured products are going to become more pupular in the future. Why is everyone thinking that these are going to die off just because we had this crisis? Pepople are going to forget about all this in a couple of years and start trading them again BAU, with a bit more caution. Off course credit will survive, but there is no "quick buck" there anymore. And the basic idea of "loan repackaging" was discredited for several years at least... It's really comparable with IT boom when people did fortune in a year... and to be IT sector analyst today is miserable destiny.
 
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tu160
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September 11th, 2008, 3:58 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: RiskCapitalStat AbrI don't understand how statarb could be a big game. By its own nature statarb is the game for elite with limited capacity. And it is really amazing how anybody on the street pretends to do high frequency those days
 
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TraderJoe
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September 11th, 2008, 4:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: tu160QuoteOriginally posted by: ChicagoGuyQuoteThose days when credit, structured products, commodities and enhanced indexes are almost done....I think the contrary....credit and structured products are going to become more pupular in the future. Why is everyone thinking that these are going to die off just because we had this crisis? Pepople are going to forget about all this in a couple of years and start trading them again BAU, with a bit more caution. Off course credit will survive, but there is no "quick buck" there anymore. And the basic idea of "loan repackaging" was discredited for several years at least... It's really comparable with IT boom when people did fortune in a year... and to be IT sector analyst today is miserable destiny.God yes!
 
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tu160
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September 11th, 2008, 4:07 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: gcWater as a commodity and water derivatives..I know that RWE was trying to build this business. Were they successful? Do you know other big players?
 
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TraderJoe
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September 11th, 2008, 4:18 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: gc Water as a commodity and water derivatives..Especially around the Middle East region (Euphrates and Tigris) and the Colorado River.
 
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ChicagoGuy
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September 12th, 2008, 12:40 am

QuoteOff course credit will survive, but there is no "quick buck" there anymore. And the basic idea of "loan repackaging" was discredited for several years at least... It's really comparable with IT boom when people did fortune in a year... and to be IT sector analyst today is miserable destiny. Didnt the crisis prove that there wasnt "quick buck" in the credit markets though? Yes, in the beginning there was, but they lost it all +billions in the end (it still hasnt ended apparently, Lehman!). If there were still racking in cash and the crisis never happen I would definitely agree with you. The credit markets are not even close to being liquid enough to be called "matured". You can only regard the CDS market as "mature". Most of the credit products are OTC.But I think that credit derivatives are going to become an integral part of the economy starting next decade. As long as people dont treat them as if they were tradable beanie babbies then everything should work out.
 
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KackToodles
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September 12th, 2008, 5:14 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeDefinitely. The Chinese want it, and see my thread on rainforest bonds. I hear the chinese are developing some alpaca farms in the gobi desert.
 
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Cuchulainn
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November 13th, 2009, 7:53 pm

QuoteAlgo is quite popular but it became extremely crowded and no doubt all those dark pools will be pure IT pretty soon. What is next???"IT" is just part of the solution. It's always there, serving the next generation of problemsThe next wave could be nanotechnology. If this is so, we should look into FEM again.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on November 12th, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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JDQuant
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November 13th, 2009, 9:39 pm

What the crisis proved is that there are tens and tens and tens of millions of Americans who are quantitative morons. And I am only talking about Harvard MBAs here! Financial products are only going to explode with mathematical, computational, and statistical sophistication, not reverse. The message is clear. Unless the US can pull its high schools kids up from the bottom quartile in Maths and Science compared to its OECD competitors, we are in for more catastrophic demographic-economic shocks. In the most recent PISA Tests, US 15 year olds barely made the Top FORTY, with scores in Math and Science, way below the average.I don't know if US High Schools are capable of such a dramatic change in culture. The idea that AP Calculus gets you college credit in the US is completely unfathomable to most of the advanced world.And then we really have to dump all these boneheaded undergrad Business majors, where quantitatively-autistic Americans take their dumb and bad habits into the business world.
 
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AbhiJ
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November 13th, 2009, 10:34 pm

JD Quant,I agree that Americans are not good at Maths but if you think poor Maths of Americans is to be blamed for crisis, I wonder how much you know about the crisis and the ethnicity of Quants. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... +explained#
 
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LTrain
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November 17th, 2009, 4:55 am

Siberian wrote>> what do you guys think about farmable land as a commodity? I can confirm the opportunities in farmland are HUGE.The real challenge is bringing investors to the table. There are only a handful of legitimate investors interested in this strategy, and working with these ppl requires a very unique skill set which is unlike anything a typical hedge fund manager or marketer does. The money is real, though. Managing a portfolio of farmland also requires unique skills, but I believe a "crack" PE/RE guy could figure-it-out given a little time. IMHO of course. edit: just a typo and misspelling
Last edited by LTrain on November 16th, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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JDQuant
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November 17th, 2009, 5:42 am

AbhI don't blame the quants we ship in from all over the world for the GFC. I blame the fact that our own local population - except for the very top - is too badly educated and innumerate to make a robust and informed market in financial products possible. American-educated folks are so easily bamboozled by the local MBAs and real-estate agents (who are also innumerate and thus don't understand what they are selling to the real bozos, ie. American hoi polloi) who are residential real estate, or the portfolio managers in pension funds, compared to the Indian and Chinese grads that Berkeley, CMU, NYU, MIT, Stanford, etc. select for Quant PhD programs, and who end up on the Quant trading desks or product development teams at hedge-funds and IBs.It is not the fault of the brilliant Quants that the products they develop are flogged and then bought by their cognitive inferiors.
 
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AbhiJ
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November 17th, 2009, 12:31 pm

Actually JD, I meant to say that Quants have a role in this crisis. As you can see in the link posted above that CDS and other exotic products caused havoc.Of course bankers have a role too. But the blame that bankers take was excess risk taking.The blame that quants took was over reliance on mathematical models.Thus I mean to say poor Maths of Americans don't come in picture anywhere and thus can't be the reason for crisis. Thats what I am saying from the 1st post.Hope I have made myself clear.
 
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JDQuant
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November 17th, 2009, 12:38 pm

AbhijSorry, but you have made no sense whatsoever.
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