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TraderJoe
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September 15th, 2008, 5:16 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: twofishQuote3. Thousands of companies went bust and many lost 90% + of their share valueAnd the few that survive did well once the competition was toast.CSCO, Nortel, Lucent (since merged with Alcatel and now nearly bankrupt) have not emerged at all well from the dotcom collapse seven years ago. They are all still down about 80% from their peak value. Staff share options issued before the crash are all still well underwater. No early retirement, or second home for those guys.
 
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twofish
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September 15th, 2008, 6:11 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeCSCO, Nortel, Lucent (since merged with Alcatel and now nearly bankrupt) have not emerged at all well from the dotcom collapse seven years ago.Whereas google and microsoft have done very well since 2001. Part of the problem is that people often take a good idea and make the wrong bets. The fact that everyone was going to get on the internet didn't translate into lots of profits for networking companies. In fact the fact that everyone is making the same bet should tell you that you shouldn't be making that bet.QuoteThey are all still down about 80% from their peak value. Staff share options issued before the crash are all still well underwater. No early retirement, or second home for those guys.Part of looking at these things involves using some common business sense. Do you think everyone is going to be a multi-millionaire from stock options. Run the numbers and that is implausible. So the only way that this bet is going to pay off is if you are lucky and different from other people, and if you are making the same bet that's not likely to happen.Someone is going to make a huge amount of money from this turmoil.
 
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albertmills
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September 15th, 2008, 6:34 pm

Someone is going to make a huge amount of money from this turmoil.Einhorn?
 
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migalley
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September 15th, 2008, 6:59 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: YuraIt seems like TJ is really nervous this morning I mean afternoon as it is afternoon in London...It looks like his pipe-dream of becoming a quant is well and truly over. He must realise by now that he will always be a B.O.M.
 
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aiQUANT
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September 15th, 2008, 7:06 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeThe industry's changed. The market's flooded with MFE's, the whole sector will shrink. Yeah, maybe we should have had more particle physics phd guys. Then we'd still be dancing.
 
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paullee123
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September 15th, 2008, 7:14 pm

Einhorn kept his mouth shut after SEC made it illegal to "manipulate the market by spreading false rumor". He is like a modern day Galileo. What a pity SEC put a gag order on him.Anyone know which company is his next investigative target? I would short that company without a blink.Einhorn is THE MAN.
 
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TraderJoe
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September 15th, 2008, 7:34 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: aiQUANTQuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeThe industry's changed. The market's flooded with MFE's, the whole sector will shrink. Yeah, maybe we should have had more particle physics phd guys. Then we'd still be dancing.No doubt; see rentec.
 
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TraderJoe
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September 15th, 2008, 7:45 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: twofishQuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeCSCO, Nortel, Lucent (since merged with Alcatel and now nearly bankrupt) have not emerged at all well from the dotcom collapse seven years ago.Whereas google and microsoft have done very well since 2001.No they haven't. MSFT share price has been flat since the tech crash at the end of 2000. And GOOG has dropped 50% over the last year. Do your homework.QuoteSomeone is going to make a huge amount of money from this turmoil.Twophish is still dancing .
 
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snowdew
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September 15th, 2008, 9:16 pm

Long time didn't come to this forum.In fact I have thought of learning mandarin these days. Though I know it is awfully hard (or that I am incredibly untalented). Urdu, language in Pakistan ? Emerging market is not easy to break in if you do not have local connections or governmental relations.Have worked in energy in the last year. Can tell you it looks nice from the outside but still old public worker mindset in the inside. Europe energy is boomming as a fresh start but after they stabilised their trades and counter parties there will not be much to go around,after all there are only so many generators. Perhaps clean tech is the new wagon for TJ to jump on ? I'm not so sure about who back this wave up, as it does require lots of resources for R&D before profit realisation.All in all I agree we should give the emerging world a try. Except the language learning. I really think Hebrew is easier than Chinese or Urdu or Arabic.
 
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Yura
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September 15th, 2008, 10:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: migalleyQuoteOriginally posted by: YuraIt seems like TJ is really nervous this morning I mean afternoon as it is afternoon in London...It looks like his pipe-dream of becoming a quant is well and truly over. He must realise by now that he will always be a B.O.M.What do you mean by B.O.M.? It can mean numerous things among which are Book of Mormons, Back on the Market, Branch Office Manager, Bank of Maharashtra.... which one?For more choices see http://www.acronymfinder.com/BOM.html
 
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TraderJoe
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September 15th, 2008, 10:35 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: YuraQuoteOriginally posted by: migalleyQuoteOriginally posted by: YuraIt seems like TJ is really nervous this morning I mean afternoon as it is afternoon in London...It looks like his pipe-dream of becoming a quant is well and truly over. He must realise by now that he will always be a B.O.M.What do you mean by B.O.M.? It can mean numerous things among which are Book of Mormons, Back on the Market, Branch Office Manager, Bank of Maharashtra.... which one?For more choices see http://www.acronymfinder.com/BOM.htmlQuoteIt's tempting to dismiss the notion of a "run" on the U.S. government as unthinkable and some bears have been warning for years, even decades, about such a worst-case scenario. But after the events of this weekend, much less the past six months, it's clear that (almost) anything is possible and no scenario too "outrageous" to seriously contemplate.What do you think yura?
Last edited by TraderJoe on September 15th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Yura
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September 15th, 2008, 11:12 pm

TJ, I agree. At this point anything is possible. Unfortunately.I think Fed is a bitch for not bailing out Lehman. Financial industry is the most important one, obviously, and who cares about the tax-payer?! Damn politics!PS I'll be very sad when they close down Lehman Live. Such a great web site.
Last edited by Yura on September 15th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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TraderJoe
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September 15th, 2008, 11:22 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: YuraTJ, I agree. At this point anything is possible. Unfortunately.I think Fed is a bitch for not bailing out Lehman. Financial industry is the most important one, obviously, and who cares about the tax-payer?! Damn politics!PS I'll be very sad when they close down Lehman Live. Such a great web site.QuoteNow this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.Winston Churchill.
 
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TraderJoe
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September 15th, 2008, 11:34 pm

The grizzly aftermath of greed.QuoteAnger as Lehman Brothers UK staff left 'high and dry' There was bitter resentment among the UK staff of Lehman Brothers yesterday after it emerged that they are unlikely to be paid their monthly salary on Friday following the collapse of the bank. Most of Lehman's 4,500 London employees are likely to lose their jobs after PricewaterhouseCoopers was called in to wind down the bank in Europe.Not a dry eye in the house.
 
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barny
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September 16th, 2008, 2:54 am

Really what Einhorn did was nothing special, the information was plain as day infront of him and he put 2+2 together and made 4, everyone else didn't see what smacked them in the face or didn't look there in the first place(a worse mistake, in my eyes, for those involved in LEH I mean). He's made an absolute packet now no doubt - though he wasn't spreading false rumours so why the SEC gagged him I don't know. Simple expressing your opinion on a stock is fine, though I can understand the self-fufilling profecy argument, in this case he was just highlighting the obvious.
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