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josejose
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Joined: September 9th, 2008, 6:19 pm

Job Future?

September 25th, 2008, 12:50 pm

I know there are a few threads related to the job issue already, so I apologize if this has been talked about already.Is it the opinion of the board that the number of quant roles will be impacted/reduced more significantly than other typical investment banking/finance positions. For instance wealth management, investment banking, will/have these been impacted in the same way, better, worse?Do you think this consolidation and the associated lack of jobs will be permanent? Will things ever go back? Would you still recommend doing an mfe program at this point for someone who hasnt entered one yet? Thanks.
 
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Cuchulainn
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September 25th, 2008, 1:35 pm

Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
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phil451
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September 25th, 2008, 1:56 pm

You ask questions as old as time.All i can say is this.In the last 25 years there have been the following financial meltdowns1982 - Latin American Debt Crisis1987 - Stock Market Crash1998 - LTCM debacle2001 - Tech stock crashplus a host of smaller and more localised problems (Savings and Loans, Black Wednesday of 1992 in the UK)Each time the prospect as looked very bleak. However, each time the markets have come back bigger and stronger than before.However, the past is no indication of the future.
 
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Cuchulainn
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September 25th, 2008, 2:49 pm

1972 recession NYC1973 oil crisis ==> 3-day work week in UK1979 oil crisis and housing market crash in Holland and the Hamptons1992(?) Soros active, interest rate shoot up 1993-2000 continued growth; stock rises, house prices rocket.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 24th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Cuchulainn
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September 25th, 2008, 3:07 pm

1637This tulip cost 4200 florins, a tradesman earned 150 florins per year
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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josejose
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Job Future?

September 25th, 2008, 3:42 pm

I suppose it just feels more significant as I am actively involved in it. Reading about changes isnt the same being apart of them, it certainly seems much more significant.
 
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Cuchulainn
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September 25th, 2008, 5:33 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: josejoseI suppose it just feels more significant as I am actively involved in it. Reading about changes isnt the same being apart of them, it certainly seems much more significant.Is this your first time?
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 24th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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josejose
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Job Future?

September 25th, 2008, 6:48 pm

Yes I graduated undergrad in 2007, and was/am considering grad school options while working currently.
 
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spice
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September 25th, 2008, 7:27 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: phil451You ask questions as old as time.All i can say is this.In the last 25 years there have been the following financial meltdowns1982 - Latin American Debt Crisis1987 - Stock Market Crash1998 - LTCM debacle2001 - Tech stock crashplus a host of smaller and more localised problems (Savings and Loans, Black Wednesday of 1992 in the UK)Each time the prospect as looked very bleak. However, each time the markets have come back bigger and stronger than before.However, the past is no indication of the future.But this time, we are entering a new paradigm.:-)
 
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Cuchulainn
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September 26th, 2008, 5:50 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: josejoseYes I graduated undergrad in 2007, and was/am considering grad school options while working currently.I would say tha you have nothing to worry about, when compared to the old days.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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DominicConnor
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Job Future?

September 26th, 2008, 7:47 am

I still stand by my forecast that in (say) 2 years there will be more people in quant jobs than there are now.One reason for my confidence is that the need for quant skills in different jobs I see in long term growth.My model is roughly based upon the diffusion of IT skills into the banking workforce. Originally there were techies, and non-techies with pretty much nothing in between.Now it is the case that many people who would class themselves as "business" not technology have enough programming skills to get a job in the IT department, and given the pay structure it is far from unknown for someone in FO to outclass many of the IT people he interacts with.Not that long ago, newbie traders were not expected to understand any maths or technology.Risk management used to be run by accountants.Quant will not diffuse as fast or even as far, but it now pervades the way banking works. It now reaches into compliance, technology, sales, trading, risk, etc.That's the good news.The bad is that between then and now, will come pain for many.Also to prosper, being a "pure" quant will be a risky strategy, possibly one you do not get an option on.
 
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phil451
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September 26th, 2008, 11:22 am

I'm with DC on this one. In another thread there was a lot of rubbishing of MFEs because a quant should be open to creative ideas which would not be stimulated in an MFE or CFQ program.I should think that the senior management, as they consider the large black holes in their balance sheet, of every bank still in business are sick to death of creative ideas.What banks need now are strong knowledgeable people who understand what the problems are and how to manage the way out of this mess. Many banks have synthetic CDOs et al on their books which are costing them money. Their primary concern for now and the next few years is to risk manage their way until the economic circustances change. They are not going to be originating new deals or indeed be creating any new 'Yield enhancing structured products'. I should think hearing the term makes them feel sick.Anyone who understands IT, business, has a good grasp of risk, P&L and valuations and is good at communicating the issues to all areas and levels of banking will find himself in demand when the current paralysis is over.
 
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quantmeh
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September 26th, 2008, 11:30 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: josejoseYes I graduated undergrad in 2007, and was/am considering grad school options while working currently.I would say tha you have nothing to worry about, when compared to the old days. he thinks this is the crisis once i and a couple of my friends bought a refrigirator. we were poor PhD students, had no money, credit cards and couldnt get a loan. the idea was that next time we'll buy another for one of us, then another one. so, in a few months we'll have one fridge for each of us.it didnt take even a month before the country changed the currency! we canceled the project, and didnt know how to settle between us. it's a new currency, when it was introduced, it was 1 to 5 to a benchmark currency. within a couple of weeks it was 1 to 100 or something like that.
 
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Cuchulainn
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September 26th, 2008, 11:53 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: jawabeanQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: josejoseYes I graduated undergrad in 2007, and was/am considering grad school options while working currently.I would say tha you have nothing to worry about, when compared to the old days. he thinks this is the crisis I think the younger generation growing up in the period 1996 - 2007 had had a wonderful experience.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 25th, 2008, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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twofish
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Joined: February 18th, 2005, 6:51 pm

Job Future?

September 26th, 2008, 4:01 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorI still stand by my forecast that in (say) 2 years there will be more people in quant jobs than there are now.My few is that there is a small but non-zero chance that we will have a total financial meltdown, in which case thinking about careers is pretty useless since we will be selling apples and waiting in line in soup kitchens. There is a also a small but non-zero chance, I will get run over by a bus this evening. But assuming the world doesn't end, things actually look pretty good, on the "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger" theory.QuoteThat's the good news. The bad is that between then and now, will come pain for many.The other bad news is that even if things are good, it will be a roller coaster ride.
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