QuoteOriginally posted by: NomadeAnthis: Dude, don't be pedantic. You know what I mean. I'm referring to things such as 1987 or 2001 after 911. That is, huge losses in the stock market that were recovered shortly after.penguina: Bad wording, what I meant is structured credit, though you should be able to figure that out given the context.My guess is that the liquid stuff will reign supreme going forward. There is plenty of money to be made in FX, rates, commodities, and even equity derivatives. Who knows? In 1999 very few people would think that credit derivatives would become what they've become. We're going through a cycle that will sure end and the boom times will return for sure. It might take 2 yrs, or it might take 10yrs (I personally think it will take >2yr).My point is that this stuff is just impossible to predict either way. Apologies if that wasn't clear.fair enough I agree with you in general.My opinion is that this is not part of the normal economic cycle but part of a longer term cycle - I think this is one of those once a generation things and main surprises will be on the downside not the upside. I believe these are events of a magnitude outside of the experience of most people alive today and that people are going to be surprised about how quickly things will deteriorate further despite the already gloomy mood.And BTW, just look at Eastern Europe. We are soon going to be reaching the point where everyone starts to realize that there are failed entities (states and financials) too large to bailout and another round of panic will take place.
Last edited by penguina
on March 1st, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.