QuoteOriginally posted by: davidnI'd love to argue the point about models, but that's not why I brought up Taleb. (Though, I can't resist, isn't a larger percentage of the entire meltdown attributed to selling insurance based on faulty models by greedy bike riding brass that didn't get it even after it was pointed out to them?)That's one way of looking at it. But it's not totally accurate. One problem is that it's not just the brass that that was greedy, and greed isn't necessarily a bad thing stupidity is. QuoteTaleb even says there's not a lot that can be done to measure and work with the tails, estimating the exponent is not repeatable...Well he is wrong. We aren't talking about aliens landing from Mars. Financial crashes happen with great regularity. There have been dozens of major crashes this century, there will be dozens more. Heck, we had a major financial crash *this decade*. We aren't dealing with black swan events at all. These are white swans events, and they are no more surprising than major Gulf coast hurricanes or earthquakes in California.QuoteThe key idea for me that has been a driving force in my desired shift from solving problems in the physical product world with all the impedence of selling, making, shipping, and disposing, to that of the digital world is that a successful product is scaleable as software or small dollars in the big market to a much greater extent.I think you are going to be in for a rude shock. There is a huge amount of impedence in the digital world involved with selling, making, shipping, and disposing bits of electrons. QuoteI realize most people won't agree, but my perspective on salary is that over a range of something like 70k to 200k you're life is more or less the same.It's not. At least in NYC.QuoteThe utility is practically the same. You drive a car, you go to work, you have a nice home, take three weeks vacation and you plug away and dream about having more TIME.With 70K in NYC, you are not going to be able to afford a nice house (or for that matter a rotten house), and I seriously doubt you'll be able to maintain a car (the cost of the parking lot will get you). Almost no one in NYC drives to work since the stress is just too much. If you want more time, you might consider moving to Europe, since people there have attitudes about time and money that are very different from most Americans.You really, really seriously need to read up on NYC before taking the leap. To maintain the same standard of living in comparison to Austin, Texas you need about a 30+% jump in salary. The good and scary thing is that in good times, you can find comparably skilled positions that pay 80% more in NYC. However we aren't in good economic times right now, and personally I think to move to NYC with a 50% salary cut is close to financial suicide. QuoteEither way, there's no "f you" money there. I want to spend my next 25 years working all the same with a shot at some "f you" money while still enjoying meaningfull day to day problem solving and a bigger picture view on my cross-section in life. You aren't going to get it. There are people in finance that are wildly wealthy, but it's an addictive life. No matter how much you make, you'll find it very difficult to leave, because you either can't financially, or you don't want to. You need to look at the bottom line which is income - expenses. If you move to NYC, your expenses are going to mushroom and for it to make any sense at all your income has to match.QuoteOnly, I want the connection in the skills, knowledge, and network gained in my next 10,000 hours becoming an expert to lead down a path toward scaleable payoffsThis is going to sound harsh, but I mean it well. If you don't realize that most New Yorkers don't drive to work, then this doesn't bode well for financial success. You need to get your head out of the clouds and look at details like the cost of living in NYC versus that in other parts of the country or the world. If you can't think like a businessman in your personal life, then it's going to be hard to convince someone that you can make money for them in your professional life.Finance is all about the details, and instead of looking at big abstract issues you need to look at concrete practical ones. Do you plan to get married and have kids. If yes then you should probably look at things like the cost and quality of schools. You want skills, knowledge, and networks. Cool. There are a million ways of getting them, and you need a broad view of those, since the first dozen ideas you have won't work.QuoteA 20k bonus on a 130k base is not scaleable.In a good year, bonus is about 50% of base.QuoteCreativity, plus insight, plus timing, in the digital world is.No it's not. Creative and insightful people get paid crap. If you look at who makes the money in any creative industry, it's not the creative people. It's the distributors. The internet is just going to *increase* this trend. The problem with creativity is that one brilliant idea can change the world. So if you have two people, one of them is likely to make megabucks, while the second is totally unnecessary. The other problem with creativity is that there isn't a shortage of creative people. It's not that hard to learn to write a decent short story, play music, or come up with astrophysical theories, which means that you have tons of great short stories out there, and a massive overproduction of talented musicians and astrophysicists.Creativity is also fun. Most musicians will do music for free. This is a problem, since it means that if you need a musician, you can pay one crap and get them to do the work. Fixing toilets, not so fun. That's why plumbers make more money than musicians.QuoteGlobally we're in for one hell of a wild ride over the next 25 years. There will be some incredible opportunities for the astute just good enough to get lucky.Yes. But.... You aren't going to get many usable business ideas reading Taleb or Gladwell. The trouble is that both Taleb and Gladwell are best selling authors, so any ideas that you get from reading their books are ideas that some other person among the millions of their readers have already come up with.