SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

twofish
Posts: 4944
Joined: February 18th, 2005, 6:51 pm

What do you think of Peter Schiff and other pessimists ?

QuoteOriginally posted by: CEexsThey may be right, but my point is that this current crisis is nothing anyone has experienced so far.Except that this isn't true. What we have is a garden variety banking crisis and credit bust, which has happened about a dozen times in the last century.

twofish
Posts: 4944
Joined: February 18th, 2005, 6:51 pm

What do you think of Peter Schiff and other pessimists ?

QuoteOriginally posted by: AbhiJThe only thing is that only two people(in my knowledge) namely Peter Schiff and Roubini predicted the coming market crash back in 2005-6.One can say that was a chance but you when you see the you tube videos taken back in 2006 and how they were laughed at publickly, however they still continued to defiantly stand by their opinion appears to me as a quality and not as a chance.One has to give some credit to these guys.That doesn't mean that they are right. If you consistently predict that things are awful then you are going to be right sooner or later. I hereby predict that there will be a massive crash in the financial markets. I don't know when and how which makes the prediction useless. Also, Roubini was pretty wrong about *how* things would blow up.

spice
Posts: 491
Joined: March 22nd, 2006, 11:53 am

What do you think of Peter Schiff and other pessimists ?

QuoteHow about J Paulson? Instead of going on CNBC to claim that he was right, he's probably busy counting the 600% or so returns he got in one of his funds that shorted ABX to the hilt.Or licking his wounds from his short Barclays trade.

emh
Posts: 142
Joined: February 20th, 2008, 3:39 am

What do you think of Peter Schiff and other pessimists ?

It is very easy to make predictions. A lot of people were saying in 2004-2005 that the housing market was over valued. The problem is making money of this. As Keynes said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

CEexs
Posts: 61
Joined: April 2nd, 2009, 2:27 am

What do you think of Peter Schiff and other pessimists ?

QuoteOriginally posted by: twofishQuoteOriginally posted by: CEexsThey may be right, but my point is that this current crisis is nothing anyone has experienced so far.Except that this isn't true. What we have is a garden variety banking crisis and credit bust, which has happened about a dozen times in the last century.Sure, banking crisis and credit bust is nothing new and fancy. However, earlier cases had smaller geographical dimensions. Additionally, despite the fact that quantitative easing was quite popular in earlier crises already, it is reaching new dimensions right now. So yes, it is a garden variety of banking crisis and credit bust, but being baked from the same basic ingredients doesnt mean they all have to follow the same pattern.

ThinkDifferent
Posts: 659
Joined: March 14th, 2007, 1:09 pm

What do you think of Peter Schiff and other pessimists ?

I wouldn't call Peter Schiff a pessimist. i'd add to your list of "pessimists" people like Jim Rogers, Marc Faber etc....I like all of these guys, they are always fun to watch/listen to...and, most importantly, they make sense, unlike Bernanke of Geithner check out Schiff's regular videoblog on youtube.
Last edited by ThinkDifferent on May 12th, 2009, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ThinkDifferent
Posts: 659
Joined: March 14th, 2007, 1:09 pm