Although dentists have made good earnings for years now, does this this mean that it will remain so ?They are mostly repairmen...When I wasa kid, there was a vast horde of TV repairmen. A valve based TV (the most common type until the the late 1970s), needed someone to come to your house and fix it every few months.Do the maths of a TV per home * 3 visits per year / 6 visits per day As I say a lot of midly skilled man hours, providing decent employment and apparent job security.But many of you think that I'm bullshitting, because televisionss have mean time between failure of years, many are thrown away still worknig simply because technology makes them obsolete.Even if it did die, you'd probably buy a new one, since repair costs are large compared with buying a n ew, bettter one.That is the scale of the change.The change from valve TVs to transistor then IC based was swift and brutal to TV repairmen. Old TVs died so often that they were almost all replaced very quickly, far too quickly for repairmen to shift.Can this apply to dentists ?I think the danger is great.Stem cells are just coming on line, and you will be able to grow new teeth that way.Although many of us will be less than overjoyed at the idea of robots in our mouths, they are laready in use for things like hip replacement, and that will only increase.Nanotech is also beginning to make a differece.So technology will increase pressure, and dentists will face the problem that their training may not be up to each wave of tech. That is a problem familiar to both quants and programmers.Also, dentists, eIspecially in the USA earn good money, and although it is a skilled job (or at least it should be), the number of people who have the combination of ability to learn abd manual dexterity is pretty high....especially in India, China etc.Already we see health tourism, so we will see cheaper dentists coming to richer customers and vice versa.Of course as the world get richer, more money will be spent on teeth, and the trend would appear to favour US levels of care and treatment options.So we have strong factors both pushing it up and down as a career option. Like quant work, farming, etc.If you believe the efficient market hypothesis applies to financial markets, then you should be prepared to consider it in modelling labour markets as well.
Last edited by DominicConnor
on June 27th, 2009, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.