Well I did grad school, got into the industry. I really do enjoy it, been at it for the last year. I am in energy trading, and surely its the fundamentals that prevail. So I've had to go through a lot of training to think like an economist before a mathie. The sarcastic smiles of the traders when they are classifying you as a newbie who is a wannabe economist. Whatever, got through all of that. Now with the changes in the oil and gas industry, increased transparency, smart grid solutions, better predictability of demand and supply etc., traders who had an edge many years back and don't find opportunities as easy anymore since markets are getting tighter and tighter due to competition. Prices rapidly reflecting fundamentals. If that's the pace at which it is going at now, what happens in 4-8 years? I do have an IT background but I hate coding, although I am the sole developer of our algo trading system . Like one would in most energy shops, I really understand spread betting (calendar and locational). But the future of the trading industry is what scares me, with the increase of algo trading, electronic trading of physical markets and so on. I see less of a role for speculators in the energy derivatives market, and I do not want to be a OTC derivative market maker many years from now. I find spec sexy, and it was what attracted me to this industry in the first place. I do not want to sharpen up my C++ skills (I use Java, vba, vb.net, matlab). The question is, do you think there will be less of a role for speculators 5-10 years from now? I am afraid of a "career bubble" at some point of my life. anyone else worried about such personal bubbles? We are tending to an industry where IT/coding skills will be prized, passionate coders with their "open source" attitude will help generalize and standardize practices and proprietary information will get slimmer. With flow trading, market making/hedging getting automated then the information flow from a client order to the market gets dissipated rapidly. VWAP algos minimizing market impact reduces the possibility of front running in flow trading desks (and/or that info being abused by an internal prop desk). ETF markets being arbed at Ultra HF, ensures computers will keep ETF markets super efficient.If all of these noises were major sources of mispricing/arb opportunities for traders, then who knows if modern portfolio theory actually becomes valid in 10 years! And the efficient market hypothesis becomes credible. Even electricity markets are going to get stabilized by improved predictability of demand through smart grids/improved infrastructure. Will we tend to a world of weather induced volatility? Surely, there are certain factors that will still change market climate apart from weather. Third world/developing nation's political instability, crappy infrastructure, poor management and religion will be volatility sources. That being said, global macro trading might end up being the future of spec trading. This is because I do not believe that "certain" third world nations will ever solve its problems. Before that happens, the new world order might actually take action and a global government can close gaps of information flows between countries. But before global macro trading becomes the next big thing, which is a long term view. I still hold that in the short term, I could see my career exploding by the time I am 33-36.
Last edited by Caesaria
on February 6th, 2011, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.