SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: outrunQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: outrunQuoteOriginally posted by: AlanI would trust the alien; he has placed the closed box contents and his prediction into a quantum state, which will resolve to either a million dollars or empty (and the correct prediction), depending upon your choice.With that, your choice is clear. edited to fix a flaw.Nice idea to entangle the events!It's not clear that the $1000 in the first box will be sufficient to cover the funeral of the radioactive dead cat in the second box.Take the first box and run!The one with the polonium drenched$100 bills??AARRRGH! The alien predicted that I'd only take the first box and poisoned it!

Paul
Posts: 10794
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

A. Why is he (outrun, you'll called the being a "he," does that mean there are male and female aliens? Are the females cute?) doing this? What's his motive? Is charity a big thing in the rest of the universe?B. You'd believe an alien? Actually, I happen to be a superior being, haven't I mentioned this before? Now stick your finger in the fire, I'll make it cool using my special superior-being powers. Honest.C. Are you the only person he's experimenting on? Is he going to do this with everyone on the planet? Jeez, think of the effect on inflation if loads of people suddenly become millionaires. Or even if loads of people get $1,000.D. I bet you could lay off a lot of risk, i.e. sell the contents of the second box, to some geeks.Etc.P ppauper Posts: 70239 Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm ### Newcomb's paradox QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulC. Are you the only person he's experimenting on? Is he going to do this with everyone on the planet? Jeez, think of the effect on inflation if loads of people suddenly become millionaires. Or even if loads of people get$1,000.we'll make an austrian economist of you yet,QuoteDavid Hume, in order to demonstrate the inflationary and non-productive effect of paper money, in effect postulated what Rothbard called the "Angel Gabriel" model, in which the Angel, after hearing pleas for more money, magically doubled each person's stock of money overnight. (In this case, the Angel Gabriel would be the "counterfeiter," albeit for benevolent motives.) While everyone would be happy from their seeming doubling of monetary wealth, society would in no way be better off: there would be no increase in capital or productivity or supply of goods. As people rushed out and spent the new money, the only impact would be an approximate doubling of all prices, and the purchasing power of the money would be cut in half, with no social benefit being conferred. An increase of money can only dilute the effectiveness of each unit of money.

Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

I'm with Paul on this one. The kinds of people that beleive in the omniscience of the alien tend to be the ones that beleive in gods, central planning, and are scared by children who bring home-made clocks to school.

Paul
Posts: 10794
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauper we'll make an austrian economist of you yetI know little about Austrians, other than you must never go into their cellars.P

pcaspers
Posts: 700
Joined: June 6th, 2005, 9:49 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauper we'll make an austrian economist of you yetI know little about Austrians, other than you must never go into their cellars.PKurt Gödel was Austrian. For example.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 62876
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
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QuoteOriginally posted by: pcaspersQuoteOriginally posted by: PaulQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauper we'll make an austrian economist of you yetI know little about Austrians, other than you must never go into their cellars.PKurt Gödel was Austrian. For example.Mach, Pauli, von Mises, von Neumann, Schroedinger,...As was Udo Juergens, Familie von Trapp, W.A. Mozart, Richard Tauber, Franz Klammer and der Dritte Man.And Schoppenhaeur. And Arnold Schwarzegg.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 16th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
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Cuchulainn
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QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauper we'll make an austrian economist of you yetI know little about Austrians, other than you must never go into their cellars.PBut this Viennese restaurant is in a cellar and is excellent. You'll never want to leave.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 16th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

pcaspers
Posts: 700
Joined: June 6th, 2005, 9:49 am

ever been to Wien ? Beautiful city.

Cuchulainn
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QuoteOriginally posted by: pcaspersever been to Wien ? Beautiful city.Yes, I loved it. My favourite. Great food. I was even in the Sewers.I never knew the old Vienna before the war with its Strauss music, its glamour and easy charm
Last edited by Cuchulainn on September 16th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn, von Mises
Last edited by ppauper on September 16th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.