Here is the phone from the side. It is assumed broken. It is at least unable to receive news alerts at the same time as saying "No SIM", and this condition is presumed stable. I think I could construct the probabilities using a P(A|B) Bayesian type thing. But I also suspect the probability has a linear increase from 5:30 to 6:29. In that case no probability math is necessary, as the height at any point in the right trapezoid can be determined from a total area of 1.