Serving the Quantitative Finance Community

 
MichaelAEp
Topic Author
Posts: 70
Joined: February 1st, 2018, 4:22 pm

GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 23rd, 2023, 11:33 pm

What do I need to study and learn? 

This whole AI thing is not going away.   I'm unprepared.  And I need help. 

Any recommendations?   Should I do the CQF again only with MATLAB instead of Excel?
So unprepared for the next 10 years 

Advice appreciated. 

By the way, if I'd wronged you in any way --- it was because of my own insecurities and psychological problems and projection.   I've worked it out on the trader's couch with good therapy and I'm truly sorry for being so coarse and rough and stupid.

Also,  You're the smartest people in the world --- so I could really punch up.   it's fine.  ---  I need to learn something new.  because my ideas are stale and I want to be part of the hive mind of genius people here. 
 
User avatar
tagoma
Posts: 3052
Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 24th, 2023, 8:51 am

What do you wish to achieve? Where do you want to go?
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 7317
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 24th, 2023, 10:57 pm

It's impossible to prepare for the next 10 year! Life is like a box of chocolates. They'll all go stale by then!
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 19658
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 89 19 79 15

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 25th, 2023, 4:01 pm

"First Learn Stand, Then Learn Fly. Nature Rule, Daniel-san, Not Mine.”
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 19658
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 89 19 79 15

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 25th, 2023, 4:15 pm

This whole AI thing is not going away. 
I agree. It hasn't been going away for 60 years.  But.... monetize ...
 
User avatar
citiboy
Posts: 13
Joined: January 12th, 2011, 5:28 pm

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 26th, 2023, 9:59 am

There is a constant pattern. Automation has been replacing jobs "from the bottom" of the pyramid, first the least skilled jobs went, then the manufacturing, then the lowest level clerical jobs etc). The AI is aiming at the next level of the pyramid, for middle skilled jobs, creative jobs etc. I think we are still quite high in this pyramid, however I can already hear some cracks.
 
User avatar
citiboy
Posts: 13
Joined: January 12th, 2011, 5:28 pm

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 26th, 2023, 12:39 pm

Just after posting this found this article in Financial Times: 
UK sets out scenario of increased joblessness and poverty due to AI by 2030
https://www.ft.com/content/fe97b4f3-72e2-4de5-8fa2-7512902d2df3
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 7317
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 26th, 2023, 5:49 pm

I'd think, on the other hand, it can save many jobs by bringing the less efficient workers up to the mean. Many started using AI-based tools to work better and faster. At the same time in many areas of economy and life the need for quality work is far from saturated. AI can help fill in the gaps. I use Colab for coding (I've never produced such nicely documented code before :-D), a colleague uses ChatGPT to get over her writer blocks, I know an accomplished artist who used generative models in his installations, ...  What are you waiting for?  :P
iumvXubwqzbv7NBzc89Diynbori.jpg
 
User avatar
citiboy
Posts: 13
Joined: January 12th, 2011, 5:28 pm

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 27th, 2023, 10:32 am

"Many started using AI-based tools to work better and faster" - yeah, that's called efficiency. And it's good for these people and companies. Only the increase in efficiency can increase real wages. However more is done with employing fewer people, meaning the economy needs to find a meaningful employment for them somewhere. And the more people feel like this transformation does not benefit them, the more populism and political turmoil. 

There were the times when the aspiration of an average person was to become middle class and it was achievable. Nowadays in a lot of countries in the West people think they will never get there, and the only aspiration is to tax to death those who managed to achieve something. 
It may look differently in emerging market economies, where the aspirations are still strong, and usually emerging market countries compete with cheap(er) and better motivated (hungry for success) labour, and keep taxes lower, because inflow of investments overcompensates lower taxation, and people put up with less social benefits, because their lives are improving anyway. 

Without any moral judgement, it has always been inequality that motivated people. Give everybody the same and the motivation disappears. And that's why countries like Poland will outgrow countries like the UK. 

Britain's economic trajectory will soon see it overtaken by Poland, Starmer to warn

Paradoxically, this was said by a leader of Labour party, which aim is to average everyone.
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 6489
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 27th, 2023, 10:45 am

I like it!

“Are you above average in any of intelligence, talent, work ethic, etc.? Then you must vote Conservative. If you are below average in all of these or struggle with envy then you must vote Labour.”
 
User avatar
Marsden
Posts: 591
Joined: August 20th, 2001, 5:42 pm
Location: Maryland

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 27th, 2023, 1:13 pm

Automation has been replacing jobs "from the bottom" of the pyramid, first the least skilled jobs went, then the manufacturing, then the lowest level clerical jobs etc). The AI is aiming at the next level of the pyramid, for middle skilled jobs, creative jobs etc. I think we are still quite high in this pyramid, however I can already hear some cracks.
??

Is that really true?

I mean, AI could replace a quant a lot more easily than it could replace a plumber. Not that a plumber isn't a skilled worker, but I think the profession* craft gets by without continuing education requirements, for example. At a first pass, I would guess that the usefulness of AI to a function -- or maybe the tractability of the function to AI -- aligns pretty well with Hayek's notions of scientific v. practical knowledge, with scientific knowledge being far more susceptible to AI than practical knowledge.

* -- a craft becomes a profession -- or it should become a profession -- when its competent practice can no longer be judged by a layman. So while anyone can determine that a leaky valve has not been fixed, only someone pretty well-versed in quant stuff would be able to render a reasonable opinion about whether a losing investment profile was the product only of bad luck for a reasonable portfolio or incompetence.
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 7317
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 27th, 2023, 3:03 pm

I believe that job losses will be temporary, if any at all. I imagine we're now undergoing a similar transition as that from hardware to software in the 1970s. Suddenly, everyone wanted to incorporate software into their products - phones, TVs, washing machines... It created a massive demand for software developers and programmers. Now everyone wants AI-based solutions, and thus we're moving to different algorithms and the next generation of software. It's basically good old statistical learning having its time on powerful GPUs. Which brings me to the bottleneck on the AI dream... Lots of people will be needed throughout the development process - from understanding the now elevated and more complex client needs and requirements to deploying the product and its maintenance. Most of those roles won't require any in-depth understanding of AI. Free online tutorials should suffice. Anyway, thats my more optimistic vision!

"Without any moral judgement, it has always been inequality that motivated people. Give everybody the same and the motivation disappears. And that's why countries like Poland will outgrow countries like the UK."
It's a somewhat biased view of so-called "poorer" EE countries persisting in the West - probably because you get the most motivated (or desperate) segment of our population. (I wouldn't say that Britons are any less motivated and hard working based on what I saw either.) The majority of Poles prefer to stay at home and enjoy the comfort and quality, which in my view has always been higher than that of the average UK household - at least during my lifetime, which luckily began after the post-communist crisis. It's just that emigration seems to be our national tradition :-)
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 19658
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 89 19 79 15

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 27th, 2023, 3:56 pm

I like it!

“Are you above average in any of intelligence, talent, work ethic, etc.? Then you must vote Conservative. If you are below average in all of these or struggle with envy then you must vote Labour.”
A  good place to start: the great Boris British bake off (new, best, remarkable,..unvarnished ..huge )
 
User avatar
tagoma
Posts: 3052
Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Re: GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

October 27th, 2023, 6:37 pm

"Global Britain". On this side of the Channel too some people badly miss the colonial period. The good old days!