August 18th, 2004, 12:56 am
I assume you are calculating VaR to get the best estimate of true risk, using a confidence interval.1) One idea is to use implied volatilities from the market to calculate VaR as usually this is superiour to historical vol. This might is a good way to go, since you get consistant volatilities on both the underlying and the options in this case which reflect the future risk much better than historical estimates2) Gamma is a greek which measures sensitivity to infinetly small market movements. When calculating VaR you are really looking at LARGE movements. For a static porfolio, the Delta-Gamma approach only works for VaR with a infinetly small confidence interval. Obviously if you have active delta rebalancing the Delta-Gamma approch works better, but you have to keep your strategy in mind when calculating VaR figures for a portfolio being rebalanced.If the portfolio is static (no relabancing), avoid delta-gamma, calculate option values for the [underlying =max 95%] and [underlying = min95%] and report VaR as Up-VaR and Down-VaR, since the measure will not be symmetric 3) I would not underestimate the power of higher order greeks in any risk calculations. If you are truely looking for a 95% VaR of a portfolio that includes options you should at least estimate the effects of changes in implied volatility, particularly if you are short a lot of wings. There you might have to look at the correlation between implied vol surface and spot levels, as well as what happens when/if this correlation breaks down.4) If the options do have full vol-smile information from the market, a smart idea is to estimate the "implied distribution" of the underlying which fits the options prices and using that distribution on both the options and underlying to get a consistant estimate between asset classes. This also has the added benefit of conforming to market expectations to some extent, and include some of the stochastic vol premiums embedded into the smile.PS: I'm not a VaR expert and not happy with VaR as a risk measure. Never use it on non-linear products unless you understand and all the shortfalls of VaR and know exactly what you are doing Best regards,Z