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BullBear
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 9:44 am

Debtor Nations (Ranking) 20. United StatesExternal debt (as % of GDP): 94.3% External debt per capita: $43,793 Gross external debt: $13.454 trillion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion 14. GermanyExternal debt (as % of GDP): 178.5% External debt per capita: $63,263 Gross external debt: $5.208 trillion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $2.918 trillion 8. France - 236%External debt (as % of GDP): 236% External debt per capita: $78,387 Gross external debt: $5.021 trillion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $2.128 trillion --------------------------------------------------Shitiest place on Earth--------------------------------------------------9. Portugal - 214.4%External debt (as % of GDP): 214.4% External debt per capita: $47,348 Gross external debt: $507 billion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $236.5 billion--------------------------------------------------4. Netherlands - 365%External debt (as % of GDP): 365% External debt per capita: $146,703 Gross external debt: $2.452 trillion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $672 billion 2. Switzerland - 422.7% External debt (as % of GDP): 422.7% External debt per capita: $176,045 Gross external debt: $1.338 trillion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $316.7 billion 1. Ireland - 1,267%External debt (as % of GDP): 1,267% External debt per capita: $567,805 Gross external debt: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2) 2008 GDP (est): $188.4 billion ------------------------------------------------------------------------Good Luck for those that are Shorting the USD and Buying the EUR in the carry trade [Long EUR/USD]If they don't change this strategy: Sayonara!!!Holy shit! Germany has more debt per capita than the USA and has a lower GDP! (They need almost 2 years of GDP to repay their external debt while the USA only need 1 year of GDP...) It's really really bad for the USA... Less than 1 year of GDP can repay all their external debt. This fx pair is doomed and totally badly aligned with other pairs. Just check the USD/GBP, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, ... The EUR is inflated against all major currencies.
Last edited by BullBear on November 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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rmax
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 9:51 am

Lies, damn lies and statistics
 
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BullBear
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 9:57 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxLies, damn lies and statisticsgood luck dude EU Gross external debtGermany: $5.208 trillion (2009 Q2)France: $5.021 trillion (2009 Q2)Netherlands: $2.452 trillion (2009 Q2) Ireland: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2) ------------------------------------total (just 4 countries): $15.1 trillion
Last edited by BullBear on November 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ppauper
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:01 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearIn 480 BC, three hundred Greek Spartans fought alone, and died, against 250 thousand Persians in the battle of Thermopylae. Nowadays, there are no Persians… but there are Greeks.Saw the movie a couple of years back.
 
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BullBear
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:05 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearIn 480 BC, three hundred Greek Spartans fought alone, and died, against 250 thousand Persians in the battle of Thermopylae. Nowadays, there are no Persians… but there are Greeks.Saw the movie a couple of years back.I agree with Nouriel Roubini on this one but the focus should be on the EUR which biases the USD index. The problem is the EUR... All other pairs are well aligned with crude oil.
 
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rmax
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:09 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearIn 480 BC, three hundred Greek Spartans fought alone, and died, against 250 thousand Persians in the battle of Thermopylae. Nowadays, there are no Persians… but there are Greeks.Saw the movie a couple of years back.There are Persians.... Someone here is confusing nationality with ethnic background. There are no Greek Spartans either, but there are Greeks. Persians all come from around the Iran/Iraq area - many people who live in Iran would call themselves Persian. Iran and Iraq are constructs post the dismantling of the British Empire...
 
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Martinghoul
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:20 am

As I keep saying, PLEASE STOP LISTENING TO MEANINGLESS STATISTICS distributed by the evil CNBC!This is a blatant attempt at US cheerleading, masquerading as valid economic statistics.
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BullBear
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:21 am

This is just a funny quote related with a famous battle exhalting the courage of a few brave warriors... Don't take it to a kind of racism play because it isn't. rmax: If you're Iranian (heir of Persia) don't get offended. It's not a ethnic quote......but the thousands of Persians of Xerxes sure got a heck of a beating, in Thermopylae, against a few brave Spartans. Sometimes the courage of a few brave warriors and a brilliant strategic move can make a difference. "Even a God King can bleed"... I used it in the sense of those who fight herd behavior in financial markets [contrarians] (do you get the metaphore now?)The thousands of persians ---> herd behavior in the eur/usd, short-selling in stocks (Mar09)Spartans ----> contrarians / value investors / Buffet and Goldman Sachs after March 09...Thermopylae ----> financial markets bull/bear battle, specially when the S&P was in the range: 805 - 880 and then broke down to 750 and 676 due to heavy short selling and pressure by the media with the dirty nationalization talk to rout the last bulls standing for shorts to cover their positions.
Last edited by BullBear on November 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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BullBear
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:23 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulAs I keep saying, PLEASE STOP LISTENING TO MEANINGLESS STATISTICS distributed by the evil CNBC!This is a blatant attempt at US cheerleading, masquerading as valid economic statistics.OK, it's possible but then show me your statistics.
 
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Martinghoul
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:41 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearQuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulAs I keep saying, PLEASE STOP LISTENING TO MEANINGLESS STATISTICS distributed by the evil CNBC!This is a blatant attempt at US cheerleading, masquerading as valid economic statistics.OK, it's possible but then show me your statistics.In this case, simple is a lot better, even though there are some flaws. See here (I believe this is as of Oct 2008, but you can get more up to date figures easily): Countries by public debt
Last edited by Martinghoul on November 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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BullBear
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:47 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulQuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearQuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulAs I keep saying, PLEASE STOP LISTENING TO MEANINGLESS STATISTICS distributed by the evil CNBC!This is a blatant attempt at US cheerleading, masquerading as valid economic statistics.OK, it's possible but then show me your statistics.In this case, simple is a lot better, even though there are some flaws. See here (I believe this is as of Oct 2008, but you can get more up to date figures easily): Countries by public debtI don't know who's right... That's why I don't like economists especially when they start playing with fx and stocks... Just don't mess with fx markets and don't blow us all up and let stocks for financial analysts and managers. Stop this index trading and correlation trading monkeyness. Look to fundamentals or leave the market. Go trade the gold and eur/usd bubble until the last fool gets it and you can run with your USD...This EUR/USD & Gold bubble trade is just a pump to get more people sucked in at huge levels and then they'll leave it to the last fool. Get out of this trade. Take risk on fundamentals!From your source:United States 60.80 73.2 61.5 France 67.00 72.5 65.2 Germany 62.60 64.8 76.4 Germany/France have more debt as a % of the GDP!
Last edited by BullBear on November 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Martinghoul
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 10:56 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearQuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulQuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearQuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulAs I keep saying, PLEASE STOP LISTENING TO MEANINGLESS STATISTICS distributed by the evil CNBC!This is a blatant attempt at US cheerleading, masquerading as valid economic statistics.OK, it's possible but then show me your statistics.In this case, simple is a lot better, even though there are some flaws. See here (I believe this is as of Oct 2008, but you can get more up to date figures easily): Countries by public debtI don't know who's right... That's why I don't like economists especially when they start playing with fx and stocks... Just don't mess with fx markets and don't blow us all up and let stocks for financial analysts and managers. Stop this index trading monkeyness.From your source:United States 60.80 73.2 61.5 France 67.00 72.5 65.2 Germany 62.60 64.8 76.4 Germany/France have more debt as a % of the GDP!Yep, that's right, as of Oct 2008. Things have changed since then somewhat.
Last edited by Martinghoul on November 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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oislah
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 11:18 am

Breakdown of gross external debt by country (IMF,BIS,OECD)
 
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mturley
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 12:06 pm

Where did the figure of $2.386 trillion for Irish external debt come from? Does it include consumer and domiciled business debt?Government debt is calculated at €70,754 million euro for Q3 09 by the Irish government (see http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/natDebtIntro.php) and the world bank has it at $101,915 for Q2 09 (see http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddprep ... EWADVANCED).
 
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Martinghoul
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The US deficit myth

November 4th, 2009, 12:09 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: mturleyWhere did the figure of $2.386 trillion for Irish external debt come from? Does it include consumer and domiciled business debt?Government debt is calculated at €70,754 million euro for Q3 09 by the Irish government (see http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/natDebtIntro.php) and the world bank has it at $101,915 for Q2 09 (see http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddprep ... EWADVANCED).Yes...Here's the CNBC definition: "External debt is a measure of a nation's foreign liabilities, capital plus interest that the government and institutions within a nation's borders must eventually pay. This number not only includes government debt, but also debt owed by corporations and individuals to entities outside their home country."
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