QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: FermionIf anyone is seriously interested in having a good model of asset price distribution, including a quantitative model of fat tails, based on elementary principles governing market inefficiency, pm me.No model is much better than any other. Depends on how much "much" is and for what purpose. A model that has a power law will be better for many purposes than one that doesn't. And having the right power is even better.QuotePrices move a lot. To say one model has better detail, or is more accurate so far as giving probabilities, is over-confidence.Or having a better model. Of course, no model will give an accurate mean, since that depends on unknown information. But a model that has the right shape will give better consistency of derivative valuations in a hedged portfolio than one that has the wrong shape.QuoteIf one guy's tail is fat 10% deeper than another guy's, neither is right or wrong.....Aren't I fucking deep today?If some one has a black hat and someone has a white that, then neither is right or wrong. Now that is deep.Of course, if black hat's win money and white hat's lose money, then it's a different story.