QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: exneratunriskI am not a practitioner and not experienced in trading at all. But I am surprised that some practitioners in renowned financial institutions seem to believe that volume is a kind of information thats "semantic" can drive markets into directions it suggests. The meta-information ("about the Whale") in the last 2 weeks alone might have interfered ......? But in general, in evolutionary systems (complexity economy) such determination is impossible.The rationale is two-fold. First, on a supply-and-demand basis, a whale must attract new entrants to a market in order to build a massive new position on top of the normal volume of open interest present in that market. For every new contract sought by the whale, some new capital must be attracted to take the other side. That changes the prices.Second, on a game-theoretic basis, if a non-whale knows that a whale exists and that this whale might be forced to unwind a big position (due to contract roll, margin call, risk management, etc.) then the non-whale will set their price . To the extent that the whale lacks optionality in their trading (e.g., the whale must sell) and the other market participants have optionality in their trading (e.g., the non-whale are free to buy or not buy), the whales contracts are worth less than the long-term expectation of the contracts. Any non-whale or other market participant who believes that a whale is being forced to sell will sit on the sidelines while the whale grows more and more desperate.Thank you, T4A!